US farmers are saying they "just need temporary help, until things get better."

Here's the thing. US farm exports- which are mostly soy- CANNOT get better.

Other countries expanded their soy industries to fill China's demand.

We've walled ourselves out of the global market, folks. This is it.

The thing is, this isn't even the first time US ag has wrecked itself with foolish trade wars.

In the runup to the Civil War, US cotton plantations decided to stop exporting cotton. Why?

Because the British Empire's textile mills ran on cotton from US plantations.

Without Southern cotton, the British textile industry would be brought to its knees.

And that would force the British Empire- with the world's most powerful navy- to help the US South in its fight for "freedom."

At least, that's what cotton plantation owners THOUGHT would happen.

What actually happened? Egyptian cotton.

With lots of fertile farmland and desperate for something to sell for cash on international markets,

Egypt's leadership dumped resources into building up cotton farming in Egypt.

By the time the US Civil War was over, so was the US cotton industry.

Egypt had ramped up to growing so much cotton, nobody really needed any from the US South anymore.

This is why "Egyptian cotton" is a thing now!

Egypt grew a little cotton before all that, but not a "main export industry & household name" amount.

This is why it's so important that US agriculture quit its "positive vibes only!" strategy and actually learn from its own mistakes.

So we can stop repeating them already.

Anyway, here's the next Egyptian cotton: Argentine & Brazilian soybeans.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/us-soybean-exports-to-china-drop-to-zero-argentina-and-brazil-win/

US Soybean Exports to China Drop to Zero, Argentina and Brazil Win

China shuns US soybeans in trade war retaliation.

MishTalk

Ope this is going off

Ok folks! My Congressman is a MAGA clown who's on multiple ag committees.

As a farmer, I need ag policymakers with a spine who tell Trump no.

So for every donation to Kim Hardy, who's running against my
Congressman, I will post one (1) ag fact.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/nc07social

Farm fact: the South is famous for clayey red soil, but a lot of it is actually... sand. Like beach sand. See the yellow on the map here.

Why? It IS beach sand. That's where the shoreline was during the Cretaceous.

This has Certain Consequences for agriculture in the South!

Your classic grain belt-type farming- grain, silos, tractors, livestock to eat all the grain- is what the US considers "real farming."

And it likes big flat plains.

So when there's big flat plains in the US, that's kinda what we like to do.

But in the South? Our big flat plains are mostly deep, DEEP coastal sand.

And grain DOESN'T LIKE SAND

We aren't gonna thrive trying to play the Midwest's game on sand y'all. What are we doing

Attempting to farm Midwest-style on sand has led a lot of people to describe Southern soils as "bad."

This is false. Slanderous, even.

Sand is great!

Root crops love it! It's soft! Long skinny roots like carrots can push downward without hitting rocks or clay pans & turning into this

Trees like "well drained soil," which is just fancy words for "it doesn't get soggy."

Nothing stays un-soggy like sand. Every time it rains, the water runs right through it like a sieve.

Yeah that's annoying sometimes! If it STOPS raining for a week the crops panic!

But it sure is well-drained

Ok time for a quick dinner break, will be back later tonight with more FARM FACTS

Ok farm facts are back!

China is so much of the global soybean market, you can't make up losing them by selling to other countries. There isn't enough soybean demand in the world to fill that dent.

And farmers... know that.

And it's just not likely to get better anytime soon.

The first time the US started a trade war with China... what can I say. They noticed. They worked with other countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay to buy their crops & invest in growing more of them.

A helpful primer on how major soybean buyers like China are viewing the US's new penchant for trade wars.

Really appreciate the writers' commitment to breaking it down so a 5-year-old can understand it

https://asiatimes.com/2025/09/brazil-will-remain-chinas-preferred-soybean-supplier-not-the-us/

Brazil will remain China's preferred soybean supplier, not the US - Asia Times

China isn't buying any new-crop US soybeans and it's easy to understand why. As part of the crossfire in the latest battle of the US-China trade war,

Asia Times

Anyway, here's what this all means.

US soybean farmers have two options.

Grow something else, or get welfare checks forever.

There is no third option.

So which option are US farmers leaning toward?

Let me put it this way: I haven't run across anyone saying "I'm thinking of growing something else" yet.

They're surely out there, but not amongst the chosen spokespeople of the sector.

(Sorry guys, these Farm Facts are gonna be a little different than the usual fun little factoids. Because our farm sector is doing its best to light itself on fire right now.)

When I ran for office in 2024 (NC Commissioner of Agriculture), I ran on a platform of "We need to stop making our state's farms all about cheap bulk crops for China."

I said it a little nicer than that. But there's a reason that was my platform.

I saw this coming!

That's not because I'm a genius with a crystal ball either! Everyone who was paying attention saw it coming.

Like China. They spent the last four years investing in soy farming in Brazil, Argentina, etc.

Because of this, and Trump's popularity, I knew there were very good odds the farmers in our state would lose their markets.

(NC doesn't export much soy. But we do export lots of pork, chicken, & tobacco to China.)

We had to be ready to pivot away from bulk exports to China.

To do that, it takes leadership that knows how.

That means both the technical know-how on investing in new crops, AND the will to do so. Leadership that isn't in the pocket of the meat & tobacco companies.

That's what I ran on.

That's why I'm in a unique position to tell you how US farmers warm up to the idea of "It's time to grow something else."

They don't.

To review: there are only two paths forward for a lot of US farmers.

The "grow something else" option is anathema to a lot of them, that means a whole lot of US farmers are banking on the other path.

Get bailouts forever.

I'm sure they're not putting it in those words to themselves. But... that is the only other option.

So now we need to talk about how the US is emerging into a dictatorship right now, and how agriculture has thrown in its lot with that happening.

When Trump bailed out farmers in his first term, that was executive branch orders. Congress had nothing to do with it.

So already setting up a pattern of "Who cares about checks & balances? Or how Congress is supposed to be in charge of the US's budget? I'm gonna rule unilaterally. Like a king. And you support me, so I like you, and here's your money."

And that's what I'm seeing this time around as well.

Congress can stop the trade war, AND budget bailouts.

But the farm sector isn't even bothering to ask Congress for anything.

It's all pleas, for money, directed towards Trump himself.

And the farm sector won't criticize Trump or his actions. It's not "Hey Trump your policies stink." It's "We love you but this'll be hard for us…Money please!"

That's the dictatorship playbook.

Kiss the dear leader's ring. Support him. Expect kickbacks.

And most of all, ignore Congress. Do not even acknowledge that there are supposed to be checks & balances protecting you. That would ruin the illusion of an all-powerful strongman on top- that you desperately want to be real.

Because no sane country, where leaders are accountable to voters, would ever decide to bail out people who openly & freely voted to destroy their own business.

The farm sector chose to help bring Trump to power. They chose to engage with him as you would an all-powerful dictator.

Because they saw that making him one is a good way to get easy money.

I know we have a folklore of farms being, like, the traditional beating heart of democracy. A nd that's such a nice idea!

But this is what's really happening.

We need to see how much work the farm sector's doing to undermine our republic. We need to name this for what it is.

I want farmers to think very carefully about if this is the kind of country we want to leave for our kids.

And if it's not, we need to wake up and do the work it takes to live in a free country.

"Freedom isn't free" isn't just for soldiers.

It's for all of us.

And sometimes it just means "If you're lucky enough to be entrusted with land, do a good job with it.

"Don't just shoot yourself in the foot & grovel for refunds."

Well that's enough from me for now.

Tonight's farm fact: sometimes entire sectors of the economy jump into bed with dictators, and agriculture is no exception.

@sarahtaber

The "easy money" aspect is what endears Trump to the corrupt.

These aren't small family farms. They are international agribusinesses.

The corrupt Batista Brothers of Brazil got a bailout courtesy the American taxpayers while smaller operations were scooped up cheap by billionaires.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-administration-farmers-bailout-brazil-brothers-1427346

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/this-foreign-meat-company-got-us-tax-money-now-it-wants-to-conquer-america/2019/11/04/854836ae-eae5-11e9-9306-47cb0324fd44_story.html

Trump rewards his agribusiness donors like Ron Cameron as well as his foreign billionaire supporters like the Batistas
https://www.pressherald.com/2019/05/16/company-owned-by-brazilian-crooks-received-62-million-in-trump-bailout-cash-meant-for-struggling-u-s-farmers/

1/

Trump Administration Farmers Bailout Money Went to Corrupt Brazilian Brothers Who Bribed Officials

The two brothers were arrested for the first time in 2017 and accused of insider trading.

Newsweek

2/

I suspect that one of the corrupt bargains between Trump & large agribusiness is a solution to their "labor problem". Koch Network believes it is an outrage to pay for labor, never mind a fair & livable wage.

Entities like Koch Poultry in Mississippi have regularly scheduled ICE raids on paydays.
https://www.mississippifreepress.org/feds-indict-poultry-execs-after-2019-mississippi-ice-raids-no-charges-for-koch-peco/

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/us/allegations-of-labor-abuses-dogged-mississippi-plant-years-before-immigration-ra-idUSKCN1UZ1OS/

They are expanding because they look forward to a profitable future with unpaid labor from detainees & corrupt convict leasing schemes.

1/

Feds Indict Poultry Execs After 2019 Mississippi ICE Raids; No Charges for Koch, PECO

One day shy of a year after U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents stormed poultry plants across Mississippi and arrested 680 undocumented workers, ICE and the U.S. Department of Justice announced their first indictments against executives at the targeted companies.

Mississippi Free Press
Alabama profits off prisoners who work at McDonald’s but deems them too dangerous for parole

DADEVILLE, Ala. (AP) — A storm was looming when the inmate serving 20 years for armed robbery was assigned to transport fellow prisoners to their jobs at private manufacturers supplying goods to companies like Home Depot and Wayfair. It didn’t matter that Jake Jones once had escaped or that he had failed two drug and […]

News and Sentinel

Of course they won’t move to other crops. American farmers are just as lazy as I and others are. They don’t do research or try to analyze cuz that’s “work,” and when the shit hits the fan they’ll blame Dems cuz that’s the socialist party.

American Farmers are stand-on-own feet, fiercely independent, anti-handout (except where farming’s concerned), patriotic members of the MAGATS cult.

@sarahtaber I'm curious how it's even possible for them to grow a mono-crop. Doesn't healthy soil require crop rotation?

@sarahtaber Of course you could very well have made your fortunes making cheap bulk crops for China.

It was your government's shitfuckery vis a vis those bulk crops that killed your industry.

@sarahtaber You are teaching me about big subjects I know nothing about. Will you answer or clarify as we read along?

When you say “farm sector” do you mean industrialized farming or individual farmers? (I understand those groups may overlap.)

@meltedcheese @sarahtaber
She seems to mean all of it. But even the individual farmers are often running multi million dollar, huge farms. She's got a YouTube channel with a lot more info if you do YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/@FarmToTaber
Before you continue to YouTube

@sarahtaber My impression is that the ag handouts are going to big ag for the most part. They may want to join China in a race to the bottom on prices, but I can’t see China ever reducing their independence in food production. Not with their history.

@sarahtaber according to this guy they can't grow anything else without taking a big financial hit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mB5PqWhQeY

(Alas, he did not credit you.)

Why U.S. farmers rely on soy (and why they're in trouble)

YouTube

@sarahtaber

Have they considered going into the solar and wind power business?

@alienghic @sarahtaber Agrivoltaics is something that can provide an income all year and helps with some crops and livestock.

@ariaflame @sarahtaber

I've seen those reports, but I was also needling the trump aligned conservatives as trump hates windmills, and is working to destroy solar because he loves seeing things destroyed by fossil fuels.

@alienghic @sarahtaber Or he likes getting bribed by fossil fuel companies.
@sarahtaber Will anything besides Soy and Corn grow in Glyphosate-addled soil?

@sarahtaber What if Americans start eating a lot more tofu and/or soy milk?

Not that I think it will ever happen, or that domestic demand could completely replace Chinese demand, but hypothetically speaking.

@faoluin @sarahtaber well presumably combined with subsidies a whole two farms might remain viable.

Of course the problem there is the regime that would have to encourage that is the very same people who've spent the last decade or so in a moral outrage about specifically soy and how it turns people soft or sperm count or something, and are openly calling for public executions of the tofu eating woke.

@faoluin @sarahtaber
If they switched to growing things we already eat more of and we hypothetically started eating more soy, I think it would be simple for them to switch back to growing more soy again considering soy is relatively easy to grow.
Keep repeating that msg to farmer Ryan Bivens who keeps supporting Trump’s inane tariffs…faithful MAGA lemming even as he’s driven into destitution by Trump—-It IS a cult.

@sarahtaber Hello from France. People here are also trying to reduce their dependency on American companies for just the same reason - because the United States has shown that it will cheat and lie and use any leverage it can to gain an unfair advantage over the rest of the world.

In a bar the other night, I ordered a New England IPA and then said, "Wait, it's not American, is it?" and the barman looked stricken and said, "No, definitely not, we've gotten rid of almost all American products."

@sarahtaber I'm laughing at the guy in the video for saying "there has been unequal trade going on". Yeah, no kidding. That's the whole point of trade; exchanging something you have for something you don't have.

China sends you manufactured goods for your soy beans, would you prefer they sent you soy beans in return to make it "equal"?

@sarahtaber so then riddle me this: Why do farmers still support the GOP? Why do they not speak out openly? Where was the outcry when #KetamineBoy destroyed #USAID? Now they are not only losing their workforce but also their farms. I guess the old saying of "Be careful what you wish for" holds true. #TheUnamericanVotersDidThis #DumbAndDumber
@RulesBuster @sarahtaber Sunk cost fallacy and resistance to change.

And even after they lose their farms, they’ll blame the Dems and they will still support the Orange Man cuz he espouses “their values.”

Really clear thinking, American farmers.

@sarahtaber and then he shoots himself in the foot by saying tariffs are good— in the long run..
@Catawu @sarahtaber I'm glad I'm not the only one having noticed that.

@sarahtaber Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.

H. L. Mencken

@sarahtaber That guy’s not much of a strategist, but I’m impressed by those soybean plants. Mine never get above waist high.

If farmers know losing China is a death knell for America’s soy industry, they’d be up in arms over Trump’s tariff shenanigans.

They’re not upset, so they either expect Trump to bail them out forever (Ha!), or they mostly are brainwashed members of Trump’s cult, or both.