US farmers are saying they "just need temporary help, until things get better."
Here's the thing. US farm exports- which are mostly soy- CANNOT get better.
Other countries expanded their soy industries to fill China's demand.
We've walled ourselves out of the global market, folks. This is it.
The thing is, this isn't even the first time US ag has wrecked itself with foolish trade wars.
In the runup to the Civil War, US cotton plantations decided to stop exporting cotton. Why?
Because the British Empire's textile mills ran on cotton from US plantations.
Without Southern cotton, the British textile industry would be brought to its knees.
And that would force the British Empire- with the world's most powerful navy- to help the US South in its fight for "freedom."
At least, that's what cotton plantation owners THOUGHT would happen.
What actually happened? Egyptian cotton.
With lots of fertile farmland and desperate for something to sell for cash on international markets,
Egypt's leadership dumped resources into building up cotton farming in Egypt.
By the time the US Civil War was over, so was the US cotton industry.
Egypt had ramped up to growing so much cotton, nobody really needed any from the US South anymore.
This is why "Egyptian cotton" is a thing now!
Egypt grew a little cotton before all that, but not a "main export industry & household name" amount.
This is why it's so important that US agriculture quit its "positive vibes only!" strategy and actually learn from its own mistakes.
So we can stop repeating them already.
Anyway, here's the next Egyptian cotton: Argentine & Brazilian soybeans.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/us-soybean-exports-to-china-drop-to-zero-argentina-and-brazil-win/
Ope this is going off
Ok folks! My Congressman is a MAGA clown who's on multiple ag committees.
As a farmer, I need ag policymakers with a spine who tell Trump no.
So for every donation to Kim Hardy, who's running against my
Congressman, I will post one (1) ag fact.
Farm fact: the South is famous for clayey red soil, but a lot of it is actually... sand. Like beach sand. See the yellow on the map here.
Why? It IS beach sand. That's where the shoreline was during the Cretaceous.
This has Certain Consequences for agriculture in the South!
Your classic grain belt-type farming- grain, silos, tractors, livestock to eat all the grain- is what the US considers "real farming."
And it likes big flat plains.
So when there's big flat plains in the US, that's kinda what we like to do.
But in the South? Our big flat plains are mostly deep, DEEP coastal sand.
And grain DOESN'T LIKE SAND
We aren't gonna thrive trying to play the Midwest's game on sand y'all. What are we doing
Attempting to farm Midwest-style on sand has led a lot of people to describe Southern soils as "bad."
This is false. Slanderous, even.
Sand is great!
Root crops love it! It's soft! Long skinny roots like carrots can push downward without hitting rocks or clay pans & turning into this
Trees like "well drained soil," which is just fancy words for "it doesn't get soggy."
Nothing stays un-soggy like sand. Every time it rains, the water runs right through it like a sieve.
Yeah that's annoying sometimes! If it STOPS raining for a week the crops panic!
But it sure is well-drained
Ok farm facts are back!
China is so much of the global soybean market, you can't make up losing them by selling to other countries. There isn't enough soybean demand in the world to fill that dent.
And farmers... know that.
And it's just not likely to get better anytime soon.
The first time the US started a trade war with China... what can I say. They noticed. They worked with other countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay to buy their crops & invest in growing more of them.
A helpful primer on how major soybean buyers like China are viewing the US's new penchant for trade wars.
Really appreciate the writers' commitment to breaking it down so a 5-year-old can understand it
https://asiatimes.com/2025/09/brazil-will-remain-chinas-preferred-soybean-supplier-not-the-us/
Anyway, here's what this all means.
US soybean farmers have two options.
Grow something else, or get welfare checks forever.
There is no third option.
So which option are US farmers leaning toward?
Let me put it this way: I haven't run across anyone saying "I'm thinking of growing something else" yet.
They're surely out there, but not amongst the chosen spokespeople of the sector.
When I ran for office in 2024 (NC Commissioner of Agriculture), I ran on a platform of "We need to stop making our state's farms all about cheap bulk crops for China."
I said it a little nicer than that. But there's a reason that was my platform.
I saw this coming!
That's not because I'm a genius with a crystal ball either! Everyone who was paying attention saw it coming.
Like China. They spent the last four years investing in soy farming in Brazil, Argentina, etc.
Because of this, and Trump's popularity, I knew there were very good odds the farmers in our state would lose their markets.
(NC doesn't export much soy. But we do export lots of pork, chicken, & tobacco to China.)
We had to be ready to pivot away from bulk exports to China.
To do that, it takes leadership that knows how.
That means both the technical know-how on investing in new crops, AND the will to do so. Leadership that isn't in the pocket of the meat & tobacco companies.
That's what I ran on.
That's why I'm in a unique position to tell you how US farmers warm up to the idea of "It's time to grow something else."
They don't.
To review: there are only two paths forward for a lot of US farmers.
The "grow something else" option is anathema to a lot of them, that means a whole lot of US farmers are banking on the other path.
Get bailouts forever.
I'm sure they're not putting it in those words to themselves. But... that is the only other option.
So now we need to talk about how the US is emerging into a dictatorship right now, and how agriculture has thrown in its lot with that happening.
When Trump bailed out farmers in his first term, that was executive branch orders. Congress had nothing to do with it.
So already setting up a pattern of "Who cares about checks & balances? Or how Congress is supposed to be in charge of the US's budget? I'm gonna rule unilaterally. Like a king. And you support me, so I like you, and here's your money."
And that's what I'm seeing this time around as well.
Congress can stop the trade war, AND budget bailouts.
But the farm sector isn't even bothering to ask Congress for anything.
It's all pleas, for money, directed towards Trump himself.
And the farm sector won't criticize Trump or his actions. It's not "Hey Trump your policies stink." It's "We love you but this'll be hard for us…Money please!"
That's the dictatorship playbook.
Kiss the dear leader's ring. Support him. Expect kickbacks.
Of course they won’t move to other crops. American farmers are just as lazy as I and others are. They don’t do research or try to analyze cuz that’s “work,” and when the shit hits the fan they’ll blame Dems cuz that’s the socialist party.
American Farmers are stand-on-own feet, fiercely independent, anti-handout (except where farming’s concerned), patriotic members of the MAGATS cult.
@sarahtaber Of course you could very well have made your fortunes making cheap bulk crops for China.
It was your government's shitfuckery vis a vis those bulk crops that killed your industry.
@sarahtaber You are teaching me about big subjects I know nothing about. Will you answer or clarify as we read along?
When you say “farm sector” do you mean industrialized farming or individual farmers? (I understand those groups may overlap.)
@sarahtaber according to this guy they can't grow anything else without taking a big financial hit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mB5PqWhQeY
(Alas, he did not credit you.)
Have they considered going into the solar and wind power business?
I've seen those reports, but I was also needling the trump aligned conservatives as trump hates windmills, and is working to destroy solar because he loves seeing things destroyed by fossil fuels.
@sarahtaber What if Americans start eating a lot more tofu and/or soy milk?
Not that I think it will ever happen, or that domestic demand could completely replace Chinese demand, but hypothetically speaking.
@faoluin @sarahtaber well presumably combined with subsidies a whole two farms might remain viable.
Of course the problem there is the regime that would have to encourage that is the very same people who've spent the last decade or so in a moral outrage about specifically soy and how it turns people soft or sperm count or something, and are openly calling for public executions of the tofu eating woke.
@sarahtaber Hello from France. People here are also trying to reduce their dependency on American companies for just the same reason - because the United States has shown that it will cheat and lie and use any leverage it can to gain an unfair advantage over the rest of the world.
In a bar the other night, I ordered a New England IPA and then said, "Wait, it's not American, is it?" and the barman looked stricken and said, "No, definitely not, we've gotten rid of almost all American products."
@sarahtaber I'm laughing at the guy in the video for saying "there has been unequal trade going on". Yeah, no kidding. That's the whole point of trade; exchanging something you have for something you don't have.
China sends you manufactured goods for your soy beans, would you prefer they sent you soy beans in return to make it "equal"?
And even after they lose their farms, they’ll blame the Dems and they will still support the Orange Man cuz he espouses “their values.”
Really clear thinking, American farmers.
@sarahtaber Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.
H. L. Mencken
If farmers know losing China is a death knell for America’s soy industry, they’d be up in arms over Trump’s tariff shenanigans.
They’re not upset, so they either expect Trump to bail them out forever (Ha!), or they mostly are brainwashed members of Trump’s cult, or both.
@sarahtaber for industrial farming I can appreciate long, consistent carrots. But we should appreciate carrots with character.
Question: does sandy soil let the fertilizer used in industrial farming drain away faster? Because I am concerned about industrial vegetables having less critical minerals than they had in previous generations.
@servelan @Urban_Hermit @sarahtaber
Pedantry incoming!
My current position:
P and K, major components of many fertilizers, are minerals. Though they're classified as macro-nutrients (along with calcium and magnesium I think) unlike other minerals which are classified as micronutrients.
#Gardening #Fertilizers
@skua @servelan @sarahtaber true. I worked QC at a company that filled starter trays with peat moss. The peat moss was fertilized at the factory that mined and shipped it to us. A major part of my job was testing to see if the fungus that got into it had used up some of the fertilizer. If so, we added more. Because the peat moss only had enough for 1 season.
The ions, calcium, potassium, phosphate, magnesium, nitrates, are marked right on the bag.
@Dio9sys
I just checked.
"Magnesium (Mg2+) is not only a quintessential macronutrient but also a cornerstone for the vitality and quality of horticultural crops. Its importance stretches across a broad spectrum of plant physiology, governing photosynthesis, nutrient metabolism, cell membrane stability, enzyme activation, and, notably, its resilience against various environmental stresses."
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10628537/
Magnesium (Mg2+) is pivotal for the vitality, yield, and quality of horticultural crops. Central to plant physiology, Mg2+ powers photosynthesis as an integral component of chlorophyll, bolstering growth and biomass accumulation. Beyond basic ...
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