Mastodawn

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

#Random ramblings for this morning.

I have a very strong "Cassandra" sense (also "GTFO" and as my friend @densaer @densaer.bsky.social calls it "Sentinel Chicken" instinct)

I have learned not to ignore that sense. Most of us live in a world of "Normalcy Bias", where we think things are normal and everyday.

I had a huge sense of that on both the Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire, and discovered that even seasoned fire trackers DO NOT HAVE that same ability to "see" (or predict) the future. When your senses are yelling GTFO, and people say "oh it's not that bad", DO NOT IGNORE YOUR INSTINCTS. In these fires this week, it was fatal. DO NOT WAIT FOR AUTHORITIES TO SAY GO.

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

You're Not a Fearmonger. You Have Sentinel Intelligence.
Some of us can hear the future.

(Thanks @paninid for reminding me of this article)

https://www.the-sentinel-intelligence.com/p/youre-not-a-fearmonger-you-have-sentinel-f70?triedRedirect=true

#SentinelChicken

You're Not a Fearmonger. You Have Sentinel Intelligence.

Some of us can hear the future.

The Sentinel-Intelligence

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

Here's the original post, the best advice I have been given, from my friend @densaer @densaer.bsky.social (follow him!)

Facebook link (I will repost screenshots for the non-FB people)

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10218483089201764&id=1030792181

#SentinelChicken #OODA

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AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

From Rakesh:

hi Sentinel Chickens!
Previous posts talked about family preparedness, how to responsibly share information on social media, and how to scrutinize information you’re taking in. This post is about how to make decisions during dynamic, unfolding situations.
***
Okaye: “Just don’t freeze”
T’Challa: “I never freeze.”
(“Black Panther”)
Any emergency is inherently a dynamic event. Things are likely to change in a potentially threatening environment (continued 1/x)

#SentinelChicken #OODA #disasters

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"There is often incomplete, sometimes contradictory information - even from official sources that are supposed to be credible.
In a normal, ordinary situation, when faced with ambiguity, a person can often stand by and wait for more information to develop. As humans, we want to really understand what’s going on before committing to a changed course of action.
This creates something known as “normalcy bias.” Things are normal, you make decisions and plans based on a certain status quo. It creates inertia for both individuals and institutions. "

2/x

#SentinelChicken #OODA #disasters

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"Pushing through inertia and normalcy bias is what you’re seeing now. People who a week ago were completely unaware of the potential for a pandemic had to each reach a moment where they realized that normal conditions were no longer operative, and that maybe new actions were needed (such as shopping for preparedness items, cancelling your travel, or figuring out how to telecommute). Some people in your life or community might not yet be there… thinking that things are still normal, and that all of that stuff they’re hearing is overhyped or a hoax — or simply that the situation immediately around them isn’t particularly abnormal yet. "

3/x

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"Binary, linear thinking (the kind that makes an engineer a good engineer) is less well suited for dynamic, ambiguous situations. You don’t have perfect information, you don’t necessarily have time to wait to develop that perfect understanding, and the situation keeps changing anyway.
It’s a perfect recipe for analysis paralysis. “You froze,” Okaye told Black Panther after the raid…
"

4/x

#NormalcyBias #SentinelChicken #OODA

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"As an emergency responder, you’re expected to take decisive action in response to a dynamic situation with imperfect information and limited resources. You have a duty to do that, so you can't freeze. You may have never been an emergency responder in your life, but it's helpful to start thinking like one now."

5/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social
"How do we push through the “fog of war” and make decisions in time critical environments? One of the tricks I’ve used over several decades to shift from my “engineer” brain to my “emergency responder” brain came out of the US Air Force back during the Korean war. It’s called the “OODA Loop”"

6/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"During the Korean War, US Air Force Colonel John Boyd realized that the speed at which modern jet air combat was occurring really shortened the time a pilot could use to make decisions. Colonel Boyd wound up creating a mnemonic known as the “OODA Loop.” While created in the context of air combat, the OODA Loop has been adapted for use in business, academia … and I think it has a role in our personal and family responses to an imminent pandemic situation."

7/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"The four phases of the Loop are:
Observe: With the five human senses, survey the environment and gather information.
Orient: With the data one has at hand, develop the mental picture of the situation. Convert that data to information. Remain open to deconstructing pre-existing mental pictures of the situation, as the reality of the situation may have changed. Know that some of the information will be false, contradictory, and missing."

8/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"Decide: Based on your mental picture and your available options to act on that picture or problem, determine a course of action.
Act: Execute that action. And then once you’ve acted, go back to “Observe” to determine the impact of that action, and adjust your course of action as necessary. Repeat continually through the emergency."

9/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"When I responded to emergencies as an EMT, I would find myself walking through the OODA Loop several times within a few minutes, continually observing the emergency scene, orienting myself within it, deciding what I need to do next, and then acting on that information… and then going back to step one. This prevented me from falling into analysis paralysis or apathy to new information, and it kept me from developing tunnel vision and failing to notice a changing or dynamic situation."

10/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

AI6YR Ben Jan 10, 2025

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"So, with your beginner’s mind, and an understanding of the OODA loop, your goal is to train yourself to continually reassess the situation, which will continually unfold in the days and weeks to come, to orient yourself to the impacts and needs in your life, and to determine a course of action and then to execute that action. And then loop until done.
Ok Sentinel Chickens... Finish up your prep, and look out for each other. Bawk bawk, and may the odds be ever in your favor. Also? Wash your damn hands.
(And thanks to Stephen Jacob who helped remind me of the stuff I'd written about the OODA Loop years ago)"

11/11 (Thanks Rakesh!!)

James Wells Jan 10, 2025

@ai6yr
This is a also a partial reason military boot camps work the way they do. Drill Instructors are attempting to break individuality, yes, but also to get the recruits to respond to commands `immediately`, and not try to analyse the situation. Once analysis paralysis sets in, it is really hard to break and can take way too long in an emergency.

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

Hisstogramma Jan 10, 2025

@ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social Your original OODA loop post a few years back has stayed with me, changed how I view things and react, and has helped me during some very very troubling times. I am grateful for it.

Rakesh Jan 10, 2025

@hisstogramma @ai6yr @densaer.bsky.social I’m very glad it was helpful to you! I’m humbled by how much impact that one post on Facebook has had.

fluids_guru Jan 10, 2025

@ai6yr @densaer @[email protected] Sarah Kendzior writes a lot about ‘normalcy bias’. Have you ever read any of her books?

I reviewed her latest here:

https://kolektiva.social/@fluids_guru/113656846668173497

fluids_guru (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image So I finished Sarah Kendzior's latest book. It is a necessary, yet sometimes painful, read. It's necessary because Sarah fearlessly writes how our society actually works, and not how we wished it would. Sarah's earlier career analysed how demagogues seized power in ex-Soviet totalitarian states. This experience allowed to her predict Trump's rise to power. Sarah writes from outside the professional pundits and the 'credentialed classes' that serve as stenographers for US coastal elites. It also allowed her to predict the response from Biden's "Placeholder" Presidency - i.e. nothing. Because the state in the service of capital will protect its own interests rather than those of its citizens. Sarah's latest book (written during COVID) identifies a kinship between b/w climate scientists, epidemiologists and scholars of authoritarian states. The people who research worst-case scenarios and break bad-news are sidelined and ostracised by those who defend the interests of the powerful.

kolektiva.social

Rakesh Jan 10, 2025

@fluids_guru @ai6yr I’m aware of her work but no I haven’t read it.

Jenny Jan 11, 2025

@ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social Years ago I read Amanda Ripley’s book “The Unthinkable” where she examines the crazy ways people react during emergencies. She described a “milling” tendency, where people wait around with others, often to the point where it’s too late because they don’t want do anything against the norm of what everyone else is doing. It had a big impact on me when I read it, and it has stuck with me since. To this day, I try to resist “milling” with others.

AI6YR Ben Jan 11, 2025

@tiamat271 @densaer @densaer.bsky.social This is EXACTLY it.

I'll give you a story. I was once at a church talent show, where one of our church members suddenly collapsed while performing. Do you know what happened?

Everyone held hands and prayed.

Did anyone check on the person? Call 911? NOT until two retired firefighters saw what was happening! One called 911, the other started CPR, and then finally someone shepherded everyone out of the church.

(The person, great guy -- sadly, did not make it -- the church got an AED after that).

Normalcy bias! Milling! Exactly this.

KNova Jan 11, 2025

@ai6yr @tiamat271 @densaer @densaer.bsky.social I have a similar story from GDC 2010 - man suddenly had a seizure during one of the scheduled talks, nobody around him did anything. I ran to an usher and had him radio for on site medical assistance. Luckily the man recovered within a few minutes and IIRC was able to get up and move for further medical help.

Seemed odd to me that nobody stood up to help or even check on him. Didn’t want to cause a scene, maybe?

AI6YR Ben Jan 11, 2025

@knova @tiamat271 @densaer @densaer.bsky.social Yep... not wanting to cause a scene is a big thing!

jonathankoren™Jan 11, 2025

@ai6yr @knova @tiamat271 @densaer @densaer.bsky.social I one time heard, and it’s possibly is part of it (although we’ve all had the exact opposite experience, so maybe not) that fire alarms don’t just warn you about a fire, they also give you permission to leave. Because people will often just sit there while they smell smoke until the smoke gets too strong, and it’s now dangerous to leave.

I tried to look up something about this, but the closest thing is that people not only have high inertia, but they’re reticent to leave if they don’t have confirmation of an actual fire. Which is understandable given the rarity of an actual fire.

https://www.apa.org/monitor/sep04/fighting

Jenny Jan 11, 2025

@knova @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social crazy…like people may be worried they’re overreacting or will feel embarrassed for “making a big deal” out of something?

Anne Jan 11, 2025

@tiamat271 @knova @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social I vaguely recall from long ago psychology class that when there are many people present, everybody assumes that somebody else will know better what to do. A sole bystander is more likely to act than if the same person witnessed the same emergency while in a crowd.

MsMerope Jan 11, 2025

@AnneMacro @tiamat271 @knova @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social

yes, we try to teach that in CERT Basic.
once one person acts; even if it is a minor act; say pointing the way to the exits... other people are more likely to "wake up" and start taking action.

Jenny Jan 11, 2025

@AnneMacro @knova @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social yup it is the “bystander effect” (which is a bit more nuanced than originally conceived, but still relevant). This is why, if you’re ever in trouble, it’s more effective to shout “fire!” than “help!” in a public setting. And if you need someone to do something, you look and point directly at them and say, “YOU, call 911!” rather than “Someone call 911!”

Jenny Jan 11, 2025

@ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social that is really sad

"Mediocre Bunny" Evelyn Jan 11, 2025

@ai6yr @tiamat271 @densaer @densaer.bsky.social
When I was a teenager at summer camp, there was a big diving contest. One of the kids did a neat dive that took him down to the bottom of the pool, and he stayed there. And stayed there. And st-
After he hadn't moved for one or two full seconds, I looked around at the camp counselors to see which one was about to jump in. They were just standing there, being utterly undisturbed Adults-In-Charge.

So I jumped in. My mom had a terrible fear of drowning, which meant us kids got signed up for every age-appropriate water safety/lifesaving class on offer. I scooped the kid up like I'd been taught & sidestroke-carried him up. I was wondering what to do when I got to the edge of the pool, because I had no idea how I was going to get a tall-ish 15-yo boy out of the pool by myself. Fortunately, the idea of helping had kicked in by that point; & the two most athletic of the adults hauled him out.

It turned out he had somehow wrenched his back in the dive; and, while he could breathe & so forth once above water, he was in terrible pain & couldn't really move. He was a friend of mine, & I stayed with him in the infirmary cabin for the several hours it took a medical transport to get there (we were way out in the sticks); & we later heard that he was going to be fine.

My friend was very glad I had jumped in after him, and thanked me several times. None of the counselors ever thanked me, or even mentioned it. The last day of camp, I asked the most approachable of them why none of them had jumped in, and she said "Oh, we just thought he was fooling around."

AI6YR Ben Jan 11, 2025

@Gorfram @tiamat271 @densaer @densaer.bsky.social OOOOF

Jenny Jan 11, 2025

@Gorfram @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social oh goodness! Lucky you were there!

Jason844 🙃Jan 11, 2025

@Gorfram 👍

Alec Perkins Jan 11, 2025

@tiamat271 @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social the most important thing that fire alarms do is give people permission to react, but even then the urge to not stand out or not make a scene is so strong. The fire floor marshals at our office always have to make a fuss during drills and false alarms.

Jack Jan 11, 2025

@alec @tiamat271 @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social I like the meaning behind that phrasing, "permission to act"... makes me think about the design of these kinds of emergency devices all around us. Pull stations, call boxes, the concept of 911, and how they are either inviting or sometimes uninviting to use in different places.

jonathankoren™Jan 11, 2025

@alec @tiamat271 @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social I just said that in a different thread!

Mysti Jan 11, 2025

@alec @tiamat271 @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social

After the Loma Prieta earthquake, at UCSC, students ran for the emergency exits in the library and an employee jumped up and shouted “no, don’t open the emergency doors” before it sank in this was an emergency. It was just so habitual. (No one was harmed.) She told the story herself.

AI6YR Ben Jan 11, 2025

@mysti @alec @tiamat271 @densaer @densaer.bsky.social 😬

Jenny Jan 11, 2025

@mysti @alec @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social I wonder if the “please remain calm” message we all hear over and over during drills starts to make people think remaining calm = don’t react, while evacuating/acting = panicking. (Sure seems like everyone who looks at me funny for still wearing a mask thinks I’m “panicking”)

Alec Perkins Jan 11, 2025

@tiamat271 @mysti @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social we need something like “keep calm and move with purpose”

Cy Jan 11, 2025

Sorry, what I mean is that I agree OODA loop is a good idea. I just found people failing more on the "observation" step, and not that they were neglecting to take action, waiting for it to be normal to do so. Remember all the hand washing stations?

CC: @[email protected] @[email protected]

W6KME Jan 10, 2025

@ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social Slight digression...anyone who does not know about Col. Boyd (and his impact on the world far outside of flying fighter jets) should read his biography by Robert Coram. Amazing read.

Alec Perkins Jan 11, 2025

@ai6yr “work the problem” from Gene Kranz is a handy companion mantra I like. It helps me snap out of analysis paralysis and apply OODA, reminding myself what’s needed is action that meaningfully addresses the issue.

MsMerope Jan 10, 2025

@ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social

just gonna drop this #oodaLoop graphic here

We teach OODA in Basic because for some reason FEMA thinks barely trained civilians can remember a 7 step size up process. 🤦

Sarah E Bourne Jan 10, 2025

@MsMerope @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social #Alt4you The OODA loop portrayed as a circle split into four parts in different colors. One part is Observe, with an arrow to the Orient part, with an arrow to Decide, with an arrow to Act, with an arrow back to Observe. The center of the circle is labeled OODA Loop.

MsMerope Jan 10, 2025

@ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social

omg... see I've been teaching CERT Basic for how many years now? and the damn size up process is NINE steps. I couldn't even remember *how many* steps there were let alone what the heck they are!!!

just ridiculous to expect somebody with 24 hours of training to remember all that in an emergency situation.

https://www.smcfire.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/CERT-size-up.pdf

Hisstogramma Jan 10, 2025

@MsMerope @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social yeesh - that process acronym is horrible. GACAEMDTE

MsMerope Jan 10, 2025

@hisstogramma @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social

somebody had worked out a FARPAR or something but I think we stopped even trying to use that.