Today's cognitive bias of the day is Normalcy Bias.
Today's cognitive bias of the day is Normalcy Bias.
Normalcy bias shows up in those moments when our brains try to downplay danger — even when the signs are right in front of us.
“That was just fireworks.”
“It won’t happen here.”
“That noise was nothing.”
James Dunleavy, an ex-cop and firearms expert explained this so clearly from his school safety and law enforcement experience, and it’s such an important reminder. Those few seconds of hesitation can matter more than we realize.
"We are trapped in what epidemiologist Adam Kucharski correctly identifies as “status quo or normalcy bias”. There is an inability to process, accept and confront the dangerous new reality we are in and to focus on the big picture and the pivot of history that’s occurred in the last two weeks."
""I'm not afraid at all," says one Santorini resident, who decided to stay put on the volcanic island despite thousands of her neighbours fleeing amid the ongoing earthquakes.
Chantal Metakides insists that she would not be joining her compatriots. "For 500 years, this house has lived through earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and it's still standing," she told AFP news agency, adding, "there's no reason why this should change"."
"When I responded to emergencies as an EMT, I would find myself walking through the OODA Loop several times within a few minutes, continually observing the emergency scene, orienting myself within it, deciding what I need to do next, and then acting on that information… and then going back to step one. This prevented me from falling into analysis paralysis or apathy to new information, and it kept me from developing tunnel vision and failing to notice a changing or dynamic situation."
10/x
"Decide: Based on your mental picture and your available options to act on that picture or problem, determine a course of action.
Act: Execute that action. And then once you’ve acted, go back to “Observe” to determine the impact of that action, and adjust your course of action as necessary. Repeat continually through the emergency."
9/x
"The four phases of the Loop are:
Observe: With the five human senses, survey the environment and gather information.
Orient: With the data one has at hand, develop the mental picture of the situation. Convert that data to information. Remain open to deconstructing pre-existing mental pictures of the situation, as the reality of the situation may have changed. Know that some of the information will be false, contradictory, and missing."
8/x
"During the Korean War, US Air Force Colonel John Boyd realized that the speed at which modern jet air combat was occurring really shortened the time a pilot could use to make decisions. Colonel Boyd wound up creating a mnemonic known as the “OODA Loop.” While created in the context of air combat, the OODA Loop has been adapted for use in business, academia … and I think it has a role in our personal and family responses to an imminent pandemic situation."
7/x