You're Not a Fearmonger. You Have Sentinel Intelligence.
Some of us can hear the future.

(Thanks @paninid for reminding me of this article)

https://www.the-sentinel-intelligence.com/p/youre-not-a-fearmonger-you-have-sentinel-f70?triedRedirect=true

#SentinelChicken

Here's the original post, the best advice I have been given, from my friend @densaer @densaer.bsky.social (follow him!)

Facebook link (I will repost screenshots for the non-FB people)

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10218483089201764&id=1030792181

#SentinelChicken #OODA

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

From Rakesh:

hi Sentinel Chickens!
Previous posts talked about family preparedness, how to responsibly share information on social media, and how to scrutinize information you’re taking in. This post is about how to make decisions during dynamic, unfolding situations.
***
Okaye: “Just don’t freeze”
T’Challa: “I never freeze.”
(“Black Panther”)
Any emergency is inherently a dynamic event. Things are likely to change in a potentially threatening environment (continued 1/x)

#SentinelChicken #OODA #disasters

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"There is often incomplete, sometimes contradictory information - even from official sources that are supposed to be credible.
In a normal, ordinary situation, when faced with ambiguity, a person can often stand by and wait for more information to develop. As humans, we want to really understand what’s going on before committing to a changed course of action.
This creates something known as “normalcy bias.” Things are normal, you make decisions and plans based on a certain status quo. It creates inertia for both individuals and institutions. "

2/x

#SentinelChicken #OODA #disasters

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"Pushing through inertia and normalcy bias is what you’re seeing now. People who a week ago were completely unaware of the potential for a pandemic had to each reach a moment where they realized that normal conditions were no longer operative, and that maybe new actions were needed (such as shopping for preparedness items, cancelling your travel, or figuring out how to telecommute). Some people in your life or community might not yet be there… thinking that things are still normal, and that all of that stuff they’re hearing is overhyped or a hoax — or simply that the situation immediately around them isn’t particularly abnormal yet. "

3/x

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"Binary, linear thinking (the kind that makes an engineer a good engineer) is less well suited for dynamic, ambiguous situations. You don’t have perfect information, you don’t necessarily have time to wait to develop that perfect understanding, and the situation keeps changing anyway.
It’s a perfect recipe for analysis paralysis. “You froze,” Okaye told Black Panther after the raid…
"

4/x

#NormalcyBias #SentinelChicken #OODA

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"As an emergency responder, you’re expected to take decisive action in response to a dynamic situation with imperfect information and limited resources. You have a duty to do that, so you can't freeze. You may have never been an emergency responder in your life, but it's helpful to start thinking like one now."

5/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social
"How do we push through the “fog of war” and make decisions in time critical environments? One of the tricks I’ve used over several decades to shift from my “engineer” brain to my “emergency responder” brain came out of the US Air Force back during the Korean war. It’s called the “OODA Loop”"

6/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"During the Korean War, US Air Force Colonel John Boyd realized that the speed at which modern jet air combat was occurring really shortened the time a pilot could use to make decisions. Colonel Boyd wound up creating a mnemonic known as the “OODA Loop.” While created in the context of air combat, the OODA Loop has been adapted for use in business, academia … and I think it has a role in our personal and family responses to an imminent pandemic situation."

7/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"The four phases of the Loop are:
Observe: With the five human senses, survey the environment and gather information.
Orient: With the data one has at hand, develop the mental picture of the situation. Convert that data to information. Remain open to deconstructing pre-existing mental pictures of the situation, as the reality of the situation may have changed. Know that some of the information will be false, contradictory, and missing."

8/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"Decide: Based on your mental picture and your available options to act on that picture or problem, determine a course of action.
Act: Execute that action. And then once you’ve acted, go back to “Observe” to determine the impact of that action, and adjust your course of action as necessary. Repeat continually through the emergency."

9/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"When I responded to emergencies as an EMT, I would find myself walking through the OODA Loop several times within a few minutes, continually observing the emergency scene, orienting myself within it, deciding what I need to do next, and then acting on that information… and then going back to step one. This prevented me from falling into analysis paralysis or apathy to new information, and it kept me from developing tunnel vision and failing to notice a changing or dynamic situation."

10/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"So, with your beginner’s mind, and an understanding of the OODA loop, your goal is to train yourself to continually reassess the situation, which will continually unfold in the days and weeks to come, to orient yourself to the impacts and needs in your life, and to determine a course of action and then to execute that action. And then loop until done.
Ok Sentinel Chickens... Finish up your prep, and look out for each other. Bawk bawk, and may the odds be ever in your favor. Also? Wash your damn hands.
(And thanks to Stephen Jacob who helped remind me of the stuff I'd written about the OODA Loop years ago)"

11/11 (Thanks Rakesh!!)

@tiamat271 @densaer @densaer.bsky.social This is EXACTLY it.

I'll give you a story. I was once at a church talent show, where one of our church members suddenly collapsed while performing. Do you know what happened?

Everyone held hands and prayed.

Did anyone check on the person? Call 911? NOT until two retired firefighters saw what was happening! One called 911, the other started CPR, and then finally someone shepherded everyone out of the church.

(The person, great guy -- sadly, did not make it -- the church got an AED after that).

Normalcy bias! Milling! Exactly this.

@ai6yr @tiamat271 @densaer @densaer.bsky.social I have a similar story from GDC 2010 - man suddenly had a seizure during one of the scheduled talks, nobody around him did anything. I ran to an usher and had him radio for on site medical assistance. Luckily the man recovered within a few minutes and IIRC was able to get up and move for further medical help.

Seemed odd to me that nobody stood up to help or even check on him. Didn’t want to cause a scene, maybe?