#Random ramblings for this morning.

I have a very strong "Cassandra" sense (also "GTFO" and as my friend @densaer @densaer.bsky.social calls it "Sentinel Chicken" instinct)

I have learned not to ignore that sense. Most of us live in a world of "Normalcy Bias", where we think things are normal and everyday.

I had a huge sense of that on both the Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire, and discovered that even seasoned fire trackers DO NOT HAVE that same ability to "see" (or predict) the future. When your senses are yelling GTFO, and people say "oh it's not that bad", DO NOT IGNORE YOUR INSTINCTS. In these fires this week, it was fatal. DO NOT WAIT FOR AUTHORITIES TO SAY GO.

You're Not a Fearmonger. You Have Sentinel Intelligence.
Some of us can hear the future.

(Thanks @paninid for reminding me of this article)

https://www.the-sentinel-intelligence.com/p/youre-not-a-fearmonger-you-have-sentinel-f70?triedRedirect=true

#SentinelChicken

You're Not a Fearmonger. You Have Sentinel Intelligence.

Some of us can hear the future.

The Sentinel-Intelligence

Here's the original post, the best advice I have been given, from my friend @densaer @densaer.bsky.social (follow him!)

Facebook link (I will repost screenshots for the non-FB people)

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10218483089201764&id=1030792181

#SentinelChicken #OODA

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@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

From Rakesh:

hi Sentinel Chickens!
Previous posts talked about family preparedness, how to responsibly share information on social media, and how to scrutinize information you’re taking in. This post is about how to make decisions during dynamic, unfolding situations.
***
Okaye: “Just don’t freeze”
T’Challa: “I never freeze.”
(“Black Panther”)
Any emergency is inherently a dynamic event. Things are likely to change in a potentially threatening environment (continued 1/x)

#SentinelChicken #OODA #disasters

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"There is often incomplete, sometimes contradictory information - even from official sources that are supposed to be credible.
In a normal, ordinary situation, when faced with ambiguity, a person can often stand by and wait for more information to develop. As humans, we want to really understand what’s going on before committing to a changed course of action.
This creates something known as “normalcy bias.” Things are normal, you make decisions and plans based on a certain status quo. It creates inertia for both individuals and institutions. "

2/x

#SentinelChicken #OODA #disasters

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"Pushing through inertia and normalcy bias is what you’re seeing now. People who a week ago were completely unaware of the potential for a pandemic had to each reach a moment where they realized that normal conditions were no longer operative, and that maybe new actions were needed (such as shopping for preparedness items, cancelling your travel, or figuring out how to telecommute). Some people in your life or community might not yet be there… thinking that things are still normal, and that all of that stuff they’re hearing is overhyped or a hoax — or simply that the situation immediately around them isn’t particularly abnormal yet. "

3/x

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"Binary, linear thinking (the kind that makes an engineer a good engineer) is less well suited for dynamic, ambiguous situations. You don’t have perfect information, you don’t necessarily have time to wait to develop that perfect understanding, and the situation keeps changing anyway.
It’s a perfect recipe for analysis paralysis. “You froze,” Okaye told Black Panther after the raid…
"

4/x

#NormalcyBias #SentinelChicken #OODA

@densaer @densaer.bsky.social

"As an emergency responder, you’re expected to take decisive action in response to a dynamic situation with imperfect information and limited resources. You have a duty to do that, so you can't freeze. You may have never been an emergency responder in your life, but it's helpful to start thinking like one now."

5/x

#NormalcyBias
#SentinelChicken
#OODA

@ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social

just gonna drop this #oodaLoop graphic here

We teach OODA in Basic because for some reason FEMA thinks barely trained civilians can remember a 7 step size up process. 🤦

@MsMerope @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social #Alt4you The OODA loop portrayed as a circle split into four parts in different colors. One part is Observe, with an arrow to the Orient part, with an arrow to Decide, with an arrow to Act, with an arrow back to Observe. The center of the circle is labeled OODA Loop.

@ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social

omg... see I've been teaching CERT Basic for how many years now? and the damn size up process is NINE steps. I couldn't even remember *how many* steps there were let alone what the heck they are!!!

just ridiculous to expect somebody with 24 hours of training to remember all that in an emergency situation.

https://www.smcfire.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/CERT-size-up.pdf

@MsMerope @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social yeesh - that process acronym is horrible. GACAEMDTE

@hisstogramma @ai6yr @densaer @densaer.bsky.social

somebody had worked out a FARPAR or something but I think we stopped even trying to use that.