Mastodawn

Simon Brooke Jul 5, 2024

OK, the first thing to say about #GeneralElectionUK 2024 is this: #Labour lost, and lost badly. They lost, in fact, HALF A MILLION VOTES compared to their 2019 result.

All the major parties, including the #LibDems, lost. Labour just lost less badly than either the #Conservatives or the #SNP.

#UKPol
#ScotPol

https://www.journeyman.cc/blog/posts-output/2024-07-06-the-election-and-after/

The election, and after

In any election in a reasonably democratic voting system — such as that used for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd, for example — the number of seats in the resulting parliament assigned to a party is proportional to the number seats they won. So any party or coalition capable of forming a government must have a proportion of the vote close to, or exceeding, a majority. Britain isn't like that, of course. Britain isn't a well-functioning anything at all, still less a well functioning democracy.

The Fool on the Hill

GeofCox Jul 6, 2024

Interesting table. There are obviously some special factors in play - eg. for the SNP and DUP - but it does tend to confirm the big changes in voter behaviour that were already pretty clear in many 'western democracies':
1. Declining turnout; and
2. Movement to political extremes.

I would argue these are both in fact symptoms of disillusion with the 'moderate' political centre and its rotating duopoly that never seems to really affect people's lives.

But I have to say, even though I'm familiar with this trend, I was surprised that given just how appalling the Tory government has been - and not just its policies, but divided and incompetent and corrupt too - less than 60% of the electorate were motivated enough to try to vote them out.

Pete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫

@GeofCox @simon_brooke every time someone seems surprised at the low turnout without mentioning the voter suppression law the Tories passed specifically to lower the turnout, I wonder if I'm missing something.

Simon Brooke Jul 6, 2024

@petealexharris @GeofCox Indeed. In the polling station I worked in on Thursday, every single voter presented valid (and legally acceptable) id; one voter first presented an id we weren't allowed to accept, but then was able to produce one we were.

However, there is absolutely no way of knowing how many people were deterred from attending because they didn't have valid id.

Seb Jul 6, 2024

@GeofCox @petealexharris @simon_brooke If you wanted to increase turnout, you’d make it as easy as possible to vote. Enable voting in any polling station. The polling cards they send out could double as voting slips - just fill in your cross and drop it in. At the count you’d have a separate area for ‘outside’ votes which would then be communicated to the appropriate constituency. There wouldn’t be that many in most areas.

Simon Brooke Jul 6, 2024

@seb321 @GeofCox @petealexharris Indeed. And given the number of separate envelopes we have to return anyway, one more would not be a great deal of extra hassle.

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/Polling-station-handbook-UKPE.pdf#page=21

GeofCox Jul 7, 2024

@simon_brooke @seb321 @petealexharris

It's true of course that voter suppression and other factors are in play in the UK, and some other countries - but declining turnout is an almost universal, long-term trend across 'western democracies', so I think you also have to look for factors common to all these countries that are increasingly driving people to give up on voting.

GeofCox Jul 7, 2024

@simon_brooke @seb321 @petealexharris

“The number of times I heard: ‘I hope you’re not from Labour, mate.’ Or: ‘I hope you’re not from the Tories, mate,’ ‘I ain’t going to vote, there’s no point.’ We were hearing that repeatedly,... “There’s apathy, there’s disenfranchisement. They just feel that the two parties don’t represent them.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/06/shockat-adam-independent-muslim-mp-leicester-south-victory-not-sectarian

Independent Muslim who beat Labour in Leicester says victory was not ‘sectarian’

Shockat Adam says he is not a single-issue MP, but will fight on NHS and housing as well as Gaza

The Guardian

Kim Spence-Jones 🇬🇧😷Jul 7, 2024

@GeofCox @simon_brooke @seb321 @petealexharris One of the problems is the Kimbeau effect: competent governments make it look easy and inevitable, so people start to sweat the small irritations. They end up throwing out the competent government in favour of liars and charlatans promising magic solutions, who then screw everything up. This pisses people off with ‘all politicians’.
Somehow we need to change the system to favour quiet competence.

Pete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫Jul 7, 2024

@KimSJ @GeofCox @simon_brooke @seb321

It's a common failure mode, which is why a lot of small allied countries not all getting taken in by the same charlatans at once is a lot safer for everyone than one big one.

Simon Brooke Jul 7, 2024

@GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris we have developed a professional political class, all of whom have far more in common with one another than they have with ordinary people. Consequently, ordinary people feel alienated.

Because we are.

The parties have a consensus around the things the big donors want, because the same big donors fund all the parties. So they all support private ownership of the means of production, of services we all need, of housing, of fossil fuel extraction, for example.

GeofCox Jul 7, 2024

I agree - and I would add 2 points:

1. Journalists and broadcasters on politics and current affairs are part of that professional political class - for them, it's interesting who's in and who's out, politics as a competitive game - but they therefore detach it from our everyday lives - they MAKE politics boring and irrelevant; and

2. 40 years of neoliberalism, plus globalisation and the internet, have resulted in such a massive transfer of wealth and power from the public (both people and governments) to super-wealthy multinational corporations and individuals that parliamentary politics really is more constrained, really does matter less and less.

@seb321 @petealexharris

MikeK Jul 7, 2024

@GeofCox @simon_brooke @seb321 @petealexharris

Well, collaboration with the EU on reining in big tech would make a big start. The EU has been doing stirling work

Simon Brooke Jul 7, 2024

@mkarliner @GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris Possibly because the UK is now out?

In the long run, it is possible that #Brexit will be good both for the continent and the planet, because the UK was acting as a brake on Europe's ability to pursue (some) progressive policies.

MikeK Jul 7, 2024

@simon_brooke @GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris

My guess is that we'll land up as defacto members.

Simon Brooke Jul 7, 2024

@mkarliner @GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris well, personally I hope so. But it may not be a good thing for Europe.

MikeK Jul 7, 2024

@simon_brooke @GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris

At the end of the day, the addition of the UK economy is too big a prize in both directions to ignore. I suspect they also will be less flexible about optouts.

We'll just have to see.

Pete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫Jul 7, 2024

@simon_brooke @mkarliner @GeofCox @seb321
If the UK ever returns to the EU, there will be no special deals, no Extrawurst, no exceptions. They won't make that mistake again. What the UK economy is worth by then won't be enough to demand special treatment.

@mkarliner @simon_brooke @GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris that’s the one thing that is pretty much guaranteed not to happen; the freedom of movement is fundamental to how the EU functions, there is very little accommodation the EU can make without that, even if the will was there.

StuartB Jul 7, 2024

@simon_brooke
While undeniably true, it's also hilarious that some of the best EU legislation was introduced at the behest of UK gov.
Even more hilarious is that some of that same legislation is being applied to us, as it is against all non-EU nations, and the cries of 'Who could have known this would happen?" we're swiftly answered with "We told you this would happen, and you would have known if you had the relevant documents!"
@mkarliner @GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris

DeterioratedStucco Jul 7, 2024

@stuartb @simon_brooke @mkarliner @GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris
... the relevant *publicly-available* documents!

StuartB Jul 7, 2024

@SoftwareTheron
Whoops, meant "had READ the relevant documents."
@simon_brooke @mkarliner @GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris

Simon Brooke Jul 7, 2024

@GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris true. Laura Kuenssberg is essentially just a village gossip – she has little interest in or understanding of policy, if you asked her a question about the Atlantic Meridianal Overturning Current she'd think you were talking Chinese.

She's interested in who's sleeping with who, who's dining with who, who's briefing against who; and that is the sum total of her interest in politics.

And although she's the worst, she's not alone.

Seán Fenian Jul 7, 2024

@simon_brooke @GeofCox @seb321 @petealexharris We need to stop getting our political news from gossip columnists.

We need to stop getting ANY OF OUR NEWS from gossip columnists. If it's not worthy of more than a gossip column, who fucking cares?

Paul Brownjohn Jul 6, 2024

@seb321 @GeofCox @petealexharris @simon_brooke

In many countries, voting is legally obligatory - Australia and Luxembourg are two that I am certain of, but I'm sure there are a number of others!

Adrian Jul 7, 2024

@seb321 @GeofCox @petealexharris @simon_brooke you can already have your voting slip sent to you by registering for a postal vote. Allowing it to be delivered anywhere would create a logistical nightmare. No constituency would be able to declare until every count had finished the out of constituency votes. All you would need would be one irregularity with a single count and the entire result could be delayed until after breakfast.
Far better would be a digital option for returning postal votes.

Simon Brooke Jul 7, 2024

@acs @seb321 @GeofCox @petealexharris unless it was required that out-of-area ballots were counted first, which they easily could be because there would be relatively few of them.

celeste_hearts_disability_pride

@petealexharris

Add in the highly sus farce over postal votes on top of that.
Amazingly there have not been the challenges we were told to expect.

@GeofCox @simon_brooke