The #ClimateCrisis will make the 2008 mortgage crisis look like a walk in the park. With ice cream.

" Rising seas, bigger #floods, and other increasing #climate hazards have created a dangerous instability in the U.S. financial system. "

That, on top of developers building in flood plains and wildfire-prone places, and the US government providing the #insurance.

#ClimateChangeIsTheLastStraw
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/04/bubble-trouble-climate-change-is-creating-a-huge-and-growing-u-s-real-estate-bubble/

Bubble trouble: Climate change is creating a huge and growing U.S. real estate bubble

Rising seas, increased flood risks, and other increasing climate hazards have created a dangerous instability in the U.S. financial system.

Yale Climate Connections

#HomeInsurance premiums are in the five figures: this is #insurance companies telling you, in their language of premiums, that you're living in a vulnerable place.

"I've heard of #premiums for residences in Lismore being $15,000. It's just not reasonable," Katschke says.

But is IS reasonable, if you consider how high the risk is of losing the entire home. Calling it unreasonable is a form of #ClimateDenial.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-12/government-involvement-disaster-insurance-protect-australians/102167338

The government needs to get involved in disaster insurance to protect more Australians, says this expert

Disaster insurance is likely to become less accessible in the future. One economist says the solution could be government intervention.

ABC News
Citing climate change risks, Farmers is latest insurer to exit Florida

The move comes as insurance companies drop coverage in California, Louisiana and other states hit by disasters and high reconstruction costs.

The Washington Post

"Since most #US #insurance companies are backed by international #reinsurance companies that cover other parts of the world, #homeowners everywhere will pay the price for #ClimateChange’s global effects."

https://www.vox.com/climate/2023/7/13/23792409/floods-vermont-new-york-natural-disaster-insurance-global-climate-risk-change

Vermont’s floods, China’s heat wave: How global climate disasters are raising insurance rates

Without local knowledge and infrastructure for unusual floods, fires, and storms, climate risks are becoming increasingly expensive.

Vox

DeSantis:
"Knock on wood."
Followed by:
"Thoughts and prayers" ??

"#Florida’s #insurance crisis: #DeSantis says ‘knock on wood’ during #hurricane season.
Insurers will return to Florida after hurricane season, DeSantis says"

"The governor said last year that #CitizensInsurance was unfortunately undercapitalized and that the company could go belly up if they actually had to weather a storm."

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2023/07/13/floridas-insurance-crisis-desantis-tells-floridians-to-knock-on-wood-during-hurricane-season/

Florida’s insurance crisis: DeSantis says ‘knock on wood’ during hurricane season

Gov. DeSantis is also making news after addressing the topic, on a conservative talk show, where DeSantis is urging patience and hoping for no hurricanes this season.

WJXT News4JAX

"If people can't get #Insurance, they can't get #mortgages."

States cap #InsurancePremiums, so insurers pull out - but the truth is that homeowners could not afford the premiums it would take for the insurers to stay. (This is why no insurer covers #flooding).

States should also not be the "insurer of last resort" because that burden - the burden that no insurance company will bear - would just fall on the taxpayer.

It's going to be a huge mess.

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change-could-cause-a-home-insurance-meltdown

Some places had homes built there before they *became* vulnerable. But also:

"In the future, stopping development in the riskiest areas is ultimately part of the solution to rising insurance losses, experts say.

But for now, restricting development isn't popular with most politicians."

Because every new property brings in new property taxes.

https://www.npr.org/2023/07/22/1186540332/how-climate-change-could-cause-a-home-insurance-meltdown

Here is an interview with the CEO of a #Louisiana #insurance company. Of their $ 445 M loss since Katrina, 90% is covered by re-insurance (but the re-insurance premiums have skyrocketed). And Louisiana has a cap on homeowners' #premiums.

As in Florida, there is the Louisiana Citizens Insurance (where the taxpayer bears the risk).

Basically they're all just praying for a quiet #hurricane season. Meanwhile the Gulf is like a hot tub.

Sounds precarious.

https://www.audacy.com/wwl/news/local/whats-behind-skyrocketing-home-insurance-in-louisiana

The knock-on effects are far-reaching in time and space:

"UPC has not given a reason for pulling out of #Hawaii, but according to property #insurance legal blogs the company took a financial hit after #HurricaneIke hit #Texas and has struggled to bounce back."
That was in 2008.

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2023/07/28/major-insurance-carrier-announces-withdrawal-state-leaving-policy-holders-dust/

Major insurance carrier to withdraw from state, leaving policy holders in limbo

Universal Property and Casualty (UPC) says it will no longer offer homeowners, condominium and renters insurance in Hawaii.

Hawaii News Now

And yet
"Almost 400,000 more people moved into than out of the most #flood-prone counties in 2021 and 2022. Same for counties vulnerable to #wildfires and heat.

Consumer-rights group Public Citizen says buyers deserve access to average #HomeInsurance prices by ZIP code over time, which would show where insurers believe risks are spiking and whether they’re paying inflated rates. But insurance companies have blocked such efforts, saying the information is proprietary."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-27/homebuyers-ignore-risk-of-climate-change-insurance-meltdown

Homebuyers Ignore Risk of Climate Change Insurance Meltdown

As major underwriters abandon vulnerable states, people keep moving into danger zones.

Bloomberg

#Arkansas:

"According to QuoteWizard, there has been $59 billion worth of natural disasters statewide in the last 20 years, and now people are just cutting [#HomeInsurance coverage] where they can.

“It has gone up so high now people are just having to knock it to the bare minimum,” Kelly said.

Kelly stressed this is a dangerous game because if something does happen to these people, they’re basically out of luck."

https://www.kait8.com/2023/07/26/homeowner-insurance-rates-continue-rise-arkansas/

Homeowner insurance rates continue to rise in Arkansas

With the average rate for homeowners’ insurance premiums reaching $3,000 a year in Arkansas, some people are struggling to afford their payments.

KAIT

"Yellen said it’s necessary for FSOC to examine how these shifts may affect the wider financial system.

#FSOC, established after the global financial crisis to identify and address systemic vulnerabilities in the #US financial system, includes the heads of the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Securities and Exchange Commission, among other regulators."

https://fortune.com/2023/07/30/janet-yellen-protection-gap-insurance-climate-change-disasters-treasury-secretary/

Janet Yellen sees a ‘protection gap’ between insurance and climate change—just 60% of 2020’s $165 billion in losses got covered

Just 60% out of the $165 billion in climate-related losses were covered in 2020.

Fortune

"Besides the impact of #ClimateChange, land use planning in more exposed coastal and riverine areas, and urban sprawl into the wilderness, generate a hard-to-revert combination of high value exposure in higher risk environments. Protective measures need to be taken for insurance products to remain economical for such properties at high risk. It is high time to invest in more climate adaption."

https://www.swissre.com/press-release/Severe-thunderstorms-account-for-up-to-70-of-all-insured-natural-catastrophe-losses-in-first-half-of-2023-Swiss-Re-Institute-estimates/cea79f3c-6486-41a8-9c6e-09df260efe30

Severe thunderstorms account for up to 70% of all insured natural catastrophe losses in first half of 2023, Swiss Re Institute estimates | Swiss Re

Severe thunderstorms account for up to 70% of all insured natural catastrophe losses in first half of 2023, Swiss Re Institute estimates

"Dave Burt, one of the “Big Short” investors who correctly anticipated chaos in the US #SubprimeMortgage market in the 2000s, said #InsurancPremiums for wildfire protection were just $1.5bn in 2021; damages were six times bigger. A move by insurers to close that gap could result in a drop of up to $495bn in property values, he said."

This entire article is, as it says, a "discomfort blanket", sketching out the ways various sectors can be devastated by #ClimateChange.

https://www.ft.com/content/899472a8-e5e2-4fde-bc91-7e548ba35294

Lex in depth: how investors are underpricing climate risks

The costs of inaction on global warming are potentially vast and often not sufficiently factored in to asset values

"Prices for #reinsurance rose as much as 40 percent on Jan. 1 from a year earlier, according to a report by Gallagher Re, a brokerage firm that puts together reinsurance coverage deals. The price increases jolted insurers, who then made changes to where and for what they offered coverage."

This makes home insurance more expensive for all of us, even if we don't live in vulnerable places.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/16/business/reinsurance-global-crises.html

How a Small Group of Firms Changed the Math for Insuring Against Natural Disasters

Climate change, inflation and global instability have thrust companies that sell insurance to insurers into the spotlight.

The New York Times

" If the continuing risk of fires, hurricanes, and other weather-related disasters isn’t enough to make Americans think carefully about how and where to build a #home, perhaps the rising cost of #insurance might concentrate their mind. Yet policies at all levels of government suppress the signal that insurers are sending. "

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/home-insurance-costs-wildfires-floods-weather/675141/

What Your Insurer Is Trying to Tell You About Climate Change

Insurers are trying to send a message. The government is trying to suppress it.

The Atlantic

"#HurricaneIdalia could become the costliest #CimateDisaster to hit the #US this year, analysts say, with massive implications for #insurance and risk management industries."

“The business of insuring for catastrophes used to mean exceptional, very rare events and that’s not what we’re seeing. These are much more common, so something’s got to change.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/31/hurricane-idalia-cost-update-category-3-florida-georgia

Hurricane Idalia could become 2023’s costliest climate disaster for the US

Analysts estimate the category 3 storm has already racked up a preliminary cost of $9.36bn, straining the insurance industry

The Guardian

"In the #US, the increases [in insurance premiums] are so savage that some homeowners are giving up on #insurance altogether, the Wall Street Journal reported this week. Less than one in five Floridians have #FloodProtection.

#Climate, macroeconomics and politics are besieging this corner of the financial sector."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-31/climate-hurricanes-inflation-create-a-perfect-storm-for-insurers?

Climate: Hurricanes, Inflation Create a Perfect Storm for Insurers

Climate, macroeconomics and politics are besieging this corner of the financial sector.

Bloomberg

"At least five large #US property insurers — including #Allstate, #AmericanFamily, #Nationwide, #ErieInsurance Group and #BerkshireHathaway — have told regulators that #ExtremeWeather patterns caused by #ClimateChange have led them to stop writing coverages in some regions, exclude protections from various weather events and raise monthly #premiums and #deductibles."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/03/natural-disaster-climate-insurance/

Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow

Major insurers say they will cut out damage caused by hurricanes, wind and hail from policies underwriting property along coastlines and in wildfire country.

The Washington Post

"For the billionaires and mere multimillionaires who have flocked to places like South #Florida, a five- and six-figure [#HomeInsurance] policy, while costly, won’t break the bank.

The result: an acceleration of #ClimateGentrification. Increasingly, only the affluent will be able to afford to insure themselves against the #ExtremeWeather, #floods and #wildfires on our warming planet. People of more modest means will simply be priced out, industry experts say."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/ultra-wealthy-miami-homeowners-see-insurance-costs-top-600-000-a-year

Ultra Wealthy Miami Homeowners See Insurance Costs Top $600,000 A Year

Insurance premiums are soaring as climate risk grows, pricing everyone but the wealthy out of some coastal areas.

Bloomberg

"Reeling from four hurricanes in 2020 & 2021 that caused $23 billion in damage, #Louisiana is undergoing an #insurance calamity that is harming the state’s economy and even reducing its population."

“If you look at where the costs end up, some monstrous proportion of the city would be unable to reasonably afford #FloodInsurance,” said Feldbaum. “And not by a small margin, but where it's just completely beyond the average households’ ability to pay the average #premium.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/louisiana-insurance-market-in-crisis-from-climate-fueled-storms

Louisiana Insurance Market In Crisis From Climate-Fueled Storms

Damages from hurricanes have pushed insurers to close their doors or hike rates, forcing some residents to move out of state.

Bloomberg

This is now hitting the mainstream news.

"Morse said she put her house on the market for a year, but it didn't sell — a failure she ascribes to the recent rise in mortgage rates as well as her insurer withdrawing from her region. "

#HomeInsurance #ClimateChange
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/insurance-policy-california-florida-uninsurable-climate-change-first-street/

Homes in parts of the U.S. are "essentially uninsurable" due to rising climate change risks

Extreme weather is spurring some insurers to exit states like California and Florida, while homeowners grapple with surging premiums.

CBS News

"First Street estimates that 39 million #US #homes are insured at artificially suppressed prices compared with the risk they actually face. Of those, nearly 6.8 million homes are covered by state-backed “insurer of last resort” policies.

But as the number of disasters and the related damages keep rising, they predict, the #insurance market will undergo a major adjustment and rates will surge, popping what the nonprofit calls a #ClimateInsuranceBubble."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-20/us-home-insurance-bubble-closer-to-popping-as-climate-risks-mount

US Home Insurance ‘Bubble’ Closer to Popping as Climate Risks Mount

Premiums kept artificially low don’t factor in rising danger from wildfires, floods and storms, making the market overdue for a correction.

Bloomberg

"His agency also wants to more accurately price at-risk homes and encourage residents to better harden and protect them from #wildfires, and squelch the rapid growth of #California’s FAIR plan, which, as Lara said Thursday, has become the “first resort, not last resort” for many residents."

#HomeInsurance rates will go way up in California, and especially so for vulnerable homes. I hope they keep the equity issue in mind while crafting this policy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/09/21/california-insurance-risks-fire-climate/

California plans big insurance shifts as climate change hits home

The actions of the nation’s biggest state could have implications for U.S. consumers, as more carriers leave disaster-prone states.

The Washington Post

"The cost of #hurricanes has grown as more people move to coastal areas that are more at #risk from hurricanes."

The risk to growing #populations and #development in storm-prone areas “really matters,” Junge told Bloomberg. "I am not sure people are really aware of how much this is a problem."

https://themessenger.com/business/climate-change-population-growth-worsen-the-cost-of-hurricanes

Climate Change, Population Growth Worsen the Cost of Hurricanes

As oceans heat up, hurricanes are becoming more frequent

The Messenger

Insurance does not cover all the damage:

"While #hurricanes and the recent Tropical Storm #Ophelia grab headlines due to the number of those impacted, smaller, more localized #storms are on the rise and are also causing significant damage where they land.

Tucker said the cost to clean up the trees in her yard alone was about $35,000, which her #HomeownersInsurance did not cover because the trees didn’t damage her house."

https://whyy.org/articles/climate-change-causing-more-damaging-storms-rising-insurance-rates-delaware-valley/

Climate change is causing more damaging ‘mid-size’ storms. Insurers are taking notice

Storm damage is on the rise. Here’s what that means for homeowners in the Delaware Valley.

WHYY

#ClimateChange has barely started being reflected in insurance claims and the price of #HomeInsurance.

"The prediction suggests that a sharp rise in home and property #insurance prices, which has already created an #affordability crisis for households and businesses in at-risk areas, has yet further to go."

This will contribute to
#ClimateInflation

https://www.ft.com/content/44cc0731-e863-468a-a6b7-f55e4d28e90d

Lloyd’s of London warns insurers climate-related pain is still to come

Executive at the insurance market has called for ‘urgent’ investment in risk modelling

Financial Times

" #Texas #HomeInsurance rates have increased 22% on average so far in 2023, twice the national rate. More billion-dollar disasters have occurred in Texas this year than any other year on record. "

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/11/30/texas-homeowner-insurance-climate-change-costs/

Climate change, costly disasters sent Texas homeowner insurance rates skyrocketing this year

Texas rates have increased 22% on average so far in 2023, twice the national rate. More billion-dollar disasters have occurred in Texas this year than any other year on record.

The Texas Tribune

"About 3.2 million Americans have moved due to the mounting risk of flooding, the First Street Foundation said in a report that focuses on so-called "#ClimateAbandonment areas," or locations where the local population fell between 2000 and 2020 because of risks linked to #ClimateChange.

Across the U.S., nearly 36 million properties — one-quarter of all U.S. real estate — face rising #insurance prices and reduced coverage due to high climate risks."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-america-3-million-migrants-first-street-nature/

About 3 million Americans are already "climate migrants," analysis finds. Here's where they left.

Communities across the U.S. are facing greater risks from extreme weather. Some are already seeing their population shrink.

The couple in this story got a non-renewal on their #HomeInsurance. That crimps their property value by 17%. They got an offer for an insurance rate six times that of the old one. But also they can't sell their house as a mortgage requires home insurance.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/05/what-homeowners-need-to-know-as-insurers-leave-high-risk-climate-areas.html

If their mortgage is paid off they might stay put, quietly living there without insurance. Until one day disaster hits and they find themselves without a home or a nest egg.

The uninsurable world: what climate change is costing homeowners

"Rising premiums are a de facto ‘carbon price’ on consumers as extreme weather events become more frequent."

On the growth of taxpayer-backed insurance, the risks to bank credit, and growing friction between #insurance companies wanting to make a profit and governments wanting to protect homeowners from spiraling insurance costs.

https://www.ft.com/content/ed3a1bb9-e329-4e18-89de-9db90eaadc0b

The uninsurable world: what climate change is costing homeowners

Rising premiums are a de facto ‘carbon price’ on consumers as extreme weather events become more frequent

Let's connect the dots:

There is a housing crisis.
NYMBYs fight in-fill and taller housing.
Developers build in unsafe places like flood plains, wildland-urban interface places.
Housing is cheaper there.
Climate change brings floods / wildfires
That cheaper housing is more vulnerable.
It's a climate real estate bubble.

"The crash could be especially detrimental for lower-income homeowners, many of whom hold the vast majority of their net worth in their home value."

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/climate-bubble-real-estate-and-extreme-weather

The Climate Bubble: Real Estate and Extreme Weather

Last year, the U.S. experienced 28 confirmed billion-dollar weather events, the most on record since the National Centers for Environmental Information began re

National Law Review

In every year of the past ten years, only a third to a half of losses of extreme weather disasters was insured.

Of the majority of the losses, the uninsured part, would that hit the poor more, or the rich? </sarc>
😥

https://www.munichre.com/en/risks/natural-disasters.html

Natural disaster risks - Rising trend in losses | Munich Re

Each year, natural disasters destroy assets worth billions of dollars. Research indicates: weather disasters are already being influenced by climate change

Here it starts:
Many #Florida home sellers are "#motivated"—meaning they would accept lower offers from buyers to sell quickly.

"One reason homeowners might be willing to sell despite the less than ideal market conditions is the high insurance rates in the state, which have risen dramatically in the past few years.

Home insurance in 2023 was about $6,000, according to Triple-I—the highest premium in the country."

(But not a word about climate change)

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-homeowners-desperately-trying-move-out-1874173

Florida Homeowners Are Desperately Trying to Move Out

One reason Florida homeowners might be willing to sell despite the less than ideal market conditions might be the high insurance rates in the state.

Newsweek

State “insurers of last resort” are absorbing trillions of dollars in risk.

"If Citizens faces a shortfall, it will allow insurance companies to levy a fee on every policy in [Florida]. That means anyone with property insurance would be on the hook."

US Senator Sheldon Whitehouse is investigating the possibility that a big-enough disaster on Florida’s coast might trigger a national real estate crisis, or push the state’s residual insurer to seek a federal bailout."

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-home-insurance-real-estate-crisis/

US Home Insurance, Real Estate Markets Teeter on Financial Crisis

“Last resort” state home insurance programs are taking on trillions of dollars in risk as private insurers pull out of the US markets most susceptible to climate disaster, from California to Florida.

Bloomberg

"California’s plan has no more than a general idea of what it could owe, or how much it could fall short."

So states are taking on insurance on properties so risky no commercial insurance company will touch it. They do this without doing the actuarial homework, and without building up the financial reserves from which any payouts need to come. They're flying blind into a cloud of wildfire smoke, so to speak.

Will they come to the federal government for a bailout?

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-home-insurance-real-estate-crisis/

US Home Insurance, Real Estate Markets Teeter on Financial Crisis

“Last resort” state home insurance programs are taking on trillions of dollars in risk as private insurers pull out of the US markets most susceptible to climate disaster, from California to Florida.

Bloomberg

I was thinking, My state can't be on this list.
Yes it is.

List of states that offer "insurance of last resort":

https://agentsync.io/blog/insurance-101/states-insurers-of-last-resort-for-property-insurance

States’ Insurers Of Last Resort For Property Insurance (FAIR, Beach/Wind, And Citizens’ Plans) | AgentSync

State-backed insurers of last resort fill gaps in the private property insurance market, allowing states to shore up their economies if traditional private insurance becomes unprofitable.

AgentSync

"Desjardins Group no longer offers new mortgages for [#Quebec] properties in “0-20 year” flood zones — where there is a five per cent chance of flooding in any given year — because of what it called the rising impact of #ClimateChange."

“It should be noted that properties in the 0—20-year zone are generally uninsurable … while government insurance protects a property for a maximum of $400,000 for life,”

https://www.thefreepress.ca/national-news/quebec-lender-ending-new-mortgages-in-flood-zones-just-the-beginning-7327986

Quebec lender ending new mortgages in flood zones ‘just the beginning’

Flooding one of many issues facing cities as they try to adapt to climate change

The Free Press

Insurers and home owners tread new ground in #Australia, with rates rising rapidly or owners foregoing insurance altogether.

"For insurers and local communities alike, it is often clear which properties are most vulnerable to flooding, and with enough investment and determination, the damage caused to homes can often be avoided.

"That's the message insurers are sending through their premiums," says Mr Hall."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/mandatory-flood-cover-premiums-rising-insurance/103566224

Flood cover could become mandatory for some home owners — and it may lead to having no protection at all

In the wake of the 2022 east coast floods, there are signs some insurers may be considering making flood cover mandatory for new customers.

ABC News

"The total value of the U.S. #housing market is roughly $52 trillion, according to Zillow.

Across the nation, roughly $22 trillion in residential properties are at risk of "severe or extreme damage" from flooding, high winds, wildfires, heat or poor air quality, Realtor.com found."

#ExtremeWeather #HomeInsurance
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-home-prices-housing-realtor-com/

Nearly half of U.S. homes face severe threat from climate change, study finds

Roughly $22 trillion worth of homes are now at risk of damage from flooding, wildfire and other effects linked to climate change.

CBS News

Jerome Powell just revealed a hidden reason why #inflation is staying high: The economy is increasingly uninsurable.

Driving the increases in insurance are factors such as #ClimateChange and rising prices for car parts, experts say."

#ClimateInflation
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jerome-powell-just-revealed-hidden-210653681.html

Jerome Powell just revealed a hidden reason why inflation is staying high: The economy is increasingly uninsurable

Housing and auto insurance costs are soaring because of climate change and more expensive car parts, says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Yahoo Finance

"One critical step to take is investment in disaster risk reduction," he says. "This can occur at the individual house level and the community level – one of the best things a community can do is try to decrease their risk of loss."

But in reality there are few funds available for low-income communities to adapt. Gourevitch highlights that there needs to be "much more" targeted government investment in reducing impacts on vulnerable communities.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240311-why-climate-change-is-making-the-us-uninsurable

Climate change is fuelling the US insurance problem

Extreme weather events are making it hard to insure homes in certain parts of the US. What happens when insurance companies simply stop insuring?

BBC

#ClimateBubble in housing

"Millions of houses are overvalued or possibly worthless because they lack adequate insurance against natural disasters.

At the root of this problem is a widespread refusal to acknowledge the true price of the risks involved as an increasingly hot and chaotic atmosphere supercharges disasters. It’s a mad collective delusion, like the belief in 2007 that home prices would never fall or in 2022 that ape NFTs were worth money."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-21/climate-change-makes-too-many-homes-uninsurable

Climate Change Makes Too Many Homes Uninsurable

Millions of houses are overvalued or possibly worthless because they lack adequate insurance against natural disasters.

Bloomberg

"One in three Australians know someone who has been forced to relocate from their homes due to an #ExtremeWeather event, and almost 85 percent are worried about the prospect of their #insurance becoming unaffordable due to worsening extreme weather events. "

https://www.newsofthearea.com.au/australians-living-in-fear-of-extreme-weather-events

Australians living in fear of extreme weather events - News Of The Area

A SUMMER of wild swings between weather extremes has left NSW residents worried that worsening floods, fires and heat will force them to move from their homes, according to the Climate Council. According to research from the organisation, one in three NSW residents report having either been forced to move after an extreme weather event...

News Of The Area

This story is repeated all over the place:
Buy house
Pay $1,600 a year for home #insurance.
Last year, the rate goes up to $7,000 annually.
Or the insurer stops coverage altogether.
Even the state "insurer or last resort" charges multiples of the original cost.

This is a slow moving train wreck,
and this train is bigger than the 2008 mortgage crisis.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/29/economy/home-insurance-prices-climate-change/index.html

"If Lustgarten and the scientists he cites are right, tens of millions of Americans, or more, will pack up and move to them. If #ClimateMigration on that scale comes to pass, it will dwarf the Dust Bowl migration of the 1930s.

Lustgarten’s central argument is that #HomeInsurance companies and government subsidies are perversely masking risks in threatened areas, making migration overdue."

https://undark.org/2024/03/29/book-review-on-the-move/

Book Review: Confronting the Slow Calamity of Climate Migration

In the book “On the Move,” Abrahm Lustgarten details how global warming could displace millions of Americans.

Undark Magazine

"An Insurify report published April 1 found #Michigan is projected to have the third-highest homeowners #insurance rate spike in the nation on a percentage basis in 2024, with a projected increase of 14% and an average premium of $2,095.

The first- and second-highest percentage increases are expected in #Louisiana (23% to $7,809) and #Maine (19% to $1,571)."

https://www.crainsdetroit.com/insurance/michigan-home-insurance-rates-spike-storms-worsen

Excerpt from “On The Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America,” by Abrahm Lustgarten

"Another great American migration is now underway, this time forced by the warming that is altering how and where people can live. For now, it’s just a trickle. But in the corners of the country’s most vulnerable landscapes — on the shores of its sinking bayous and on the eroding bluffs of its coastal defenses — populations are already in disarray."

https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-migration-louisiana-slidell-flooding

The Flooding Will Come “No Matter What”: Climate Change is Already Forcing People From Their Homes

The complex, contradictory and heartbreaking process of American climate migration is underway.

ProPublica

A #landslide forced me from my home—and I experienced our failure to deal with #ClimateChange at first hand

"We tried to seek help from the various authorities: local councils, the water company and insurance providers. We encountered a labyrinth of bureaucracy, disinterest—and a stark absence of support systems for landslide victims.

This response—or lack thereof—reveals a troubling incentive structure, where the fear of assuming liability results in inaction."

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-landslide-home-experienced-failure-climate.html

A landslide forced me from my home—and I experienced our failure to deal with climate change at first hand

One stormy evening in February 2024, I heard the sickening sound of trees breaking just beyond my garden in the town of Hastings on England's south coast. Heading outside to investigate, I soon found cracks opening up in the ground near our property's border with the Old Roar Gill—a narrow valley containing ancient woodlands, a stream and much wildlife, plants and trees.

Phys.org

"Senators from both parties were incredulous.

“We can’t get fire #insurance at a fire station that’s going to be manned by firefighters,” said Sen. Brian Dahle, a Republican from Lassen County, in the northeast corner of the state. “That’s where we are in #California. That to me is crazy.”"

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-climate/2024/04/11/californias-firefighters-cant-get-fire-insurance-00151885

@CelloMomOnCars

Translation: insurance companies can shift the enormous cost of insuring homes in coastal areas onto the backs of midwestern homeowners by jacking their rates up.

@MartyLemert

I was wondering what climate risks Michigan has got to justify this rate hike. Maybe it's that Florida rates are already through the roof.

@CelloMomOnCars I look at it from the POV of someone who grew up in Florida in the 60s and 70s -- a zillion people moved to Florida then, the county I lived in and the two land-adjacent counties grew 3% per year (compounding) for at least 20 consecutive years. People moved in for decades, I expect people will move out for decades. But/also, Florida is not all low, the next century's sea level rise will mostly affect the most-coastal areas. /
@CelloMomOnCars the county I grew up in (Pinellas) has a lot of high ground, and a lot of low ground, and I'm curious what the high ground reaction will be to the low ground getting increasingly wet. In most of our lifetimes, the rate is *likely* to be slow (but steady), not more than a foot per decade (3 meters per year, well faster than most current this-century estimates). Someone 25 feet up, they could put off worrying for 100 years.
@CelloMomOnCars but some of the infrastructure is at risk -- roads with low sections will be cut, salt water intrusion will mess up water supplies, cities with high and low-ground areas will be under financial pressure (barrier island municipalities will fail). There will be this weird tension on high-ground property values between displaced locals wanting to stay on the now-scarcer land, newcomers staying away, and high-ground locals deciding to get while the getting is good.

@dr2chase

No man is an island, right? Your house may be on higher ground, but you still rely on municipal water and sewer, and the electricity lines, and so on. You still need the roads to get places, and also you would like places to get to.

For now, the higher lying parts, say of Miami, farther from the beach, are "gentrifying", that is, rich folks are pushing out the poor people who before couldn't afford the beachfront properties.

@CelloMomOnCars

All those people that think that climate change is something you can choose to "believe in" or not might be in for a rude surprise. Though I suppose it's easier to act like it's Biden's fault somehow ... Won't save their ass however.

@DeborahForPlus

This is why it's so useful that all the info is coming to light about how Big Oil KNEW about the climate science, and to astonishing accuracy, for decades now, and they decided to put money into climate denial so they can keep peddling their climate wrecking product.

@CelloMomOnCars the book The Great Displacement has an entire section devoted to this time bomb. This will be part of the end of the suburban experiment.
@CelloMomOnCars there should be a moratorium on 100 year flood plains.

@Chancerubbage

I agree, especially as "100-year" zones now have a much higher flooding probability than 1% in any given year.

But one step at a time.
It's already remarkable that the province has put a cap on how much it will spend on each property. They set a good example for other governments.

@CelloMomOnCars

I’ve seen developments built on 50 year flood plains. And seen flooding of them within a decade. 30 year mortgage on a 50 year flood plain seems more like gambling than sound development.

@Chancerubbage

Real estate on flood plains is a game of musical chairs now. When the music stops one or more properties get flooded 😥