Something I’ve been thinking about a lot in the current battle over the future of (pseudo) AI is the cotton gin.

I live in a country where industrial progress is always considered a positive. It’s such a fundamental concept to the American exceptionalism claim that we are taught never to question it, let alone realize that it’s propaganda.

One such myth, taught early in grade school, is the story of Eli Whitney and the cotton gin. Here was a classic example of a labor-saving device that made millions of lives better. No more overworked people hand cleaning the cotton (slaves, though that was only mentioned much later, if at all). Better clothes and bedding for the world. Capitalism at its best.

But that’s only half the story of this great industrial time saver. Where did those cotton cleaners go? And what was the impact of speeding up the process?

Now that the cleaning bottleneck was gone, the focus was on picking cotton as fast as possible. Those cotton cleaners likely, and millions of other slaves definitely, were sent to the fields to pick cotton. There was an unprecedented explosion in the slave trade. Industrial time management and optimization methods were applied to human beings using elaborate rule-based systems written up in books. How hard to punish to get optimal productivity. How long their lifespans needed to be to get the lost production per dollar. Those techniques, practiced on the backs and lives of slaves, became the basis of how to run the industrial mills in the North. They are the ancestors of the techniques that your manager uses now to improve productivity.

Millions of people were sold into slavery and worked to death *because* of the cotton gin. The advance it provided did not, in fact save labor overall. Nor did it make life better overall. It made a very small set of people much much richer; especially the investors around the world who funded the banks who funded the slave purchases. It made a larger set of consumers more comfortable at the cost of the lives of those poorer. Over a hundred years later this model is still the basis for our society.

Modern “AI” is a cotton gin. It makes a lot of painstaking things much easier and available to everyone. Writing, reading, drawing, summarizing, reviewing medical cases, hiring, firing, tracking productivity, driving, identifying people in a lineup…they all can now be done automatically. Put aside whether it’s actually capable of doing any of those things *well*; the investors don’t care if their products are good, they only care if they can make more money off of them. So long as they work enough to sell, the errors, and the human cost of those errors, are irrelevant. And like the cotton gin, AI has other side effects. When those jobs are gone, are the new jobs better? Or are we all working that much harder, with even more negative consequences to our life if we fall off the treadmill? One more fear to keep us “productive”.

The Luddites learned this lesson the hard way, and history demonizes them for it; because history isn’t written by the losers.

They’ve wrapped “AI” with a shiny ribbon to make it fun and appealing to the masses. How could something so fun to play with be dangerous? But like the story we are told about the cotton gin, the true costs are hidden.

#ML #TESCREAL

@nazgul This is one of the best takes on AI I've seen so far. Thanks!

@nazgul @naught101

While this is indeed a good assessment of the role, ai will probably take, I think it is important to see, that this is not a problem with AI (or cotton gin), but with the mindset behind capitalism and industrislisation.
Even if we somehow manage to abandon every form of AI (which is very unlikely), the next cotton gin will come along and do the same. Like the steam hammer or computers did.

Fight capitalism, not ai.

@xilebo @nazgul @naught101

I get what you're saying and I agree. But there is a bit of a difference. The cotton gin did what it was supposed to do. AI doesn't.

@DoNotPunchDown

The LLMs are doing exactly what they are supposed to do. And if you use them as intended, they can be a great help.
Unfortunately, a lot of people do not understand, what they are supposed. It's like if people would have drunk cotton gin and then complained about the health issues.

Only that marketing people seem to advertise wrong application of LLMs. It's like a combination of cotton gin and snake oil. :D

"Drink cotton gin! It cures all your ailments!"

@nazgul @naught101

@xilebo @nazgul @naught101

I get what you're saying but I disagree. It may do some of what it's supposed to do but it also does stuff it isn't supposed to do. You use the cotton gin and it only does what it's supposed to do, and the cotton gin can't get drunk. That's not true for LLM. Though I agree it can't get drunk either. 😁

I'm sorry, but until it's safe and correct, it's useless. ✌🏻

@DoNotPunchDown It's useful if you don't care about safe and correct. e.g. if you're in marketing and just want to write some guff without care for correctness.

But yeah, part of the problem is that it's marketed as safe and truth-y.

@xilebo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_gin - it's not a drink, it's a machine.

Agree that capitalism (or more broadly, unchecked power accumulation) is the underlying issue though.

@nazgul

Cotton gin - Wikipedia

@naught101

Hm, I somehow was of the impression it was a chemical substance. But it's a machine...

I just learned something. Thank you.
Now I will have to read more about cotton gin.

@DoNotPunchDown @nazgul

@naught101

I just read an article about a woman who says, she has family members who are dyslexic and can, for the first time, comfortably write texts, thanks to LLMs.
Most of the article is about her fixing blunders of people, who let texts be written completely by LLMs. She often has to replace all texts on a website, because it wasn't even reusable.
They were blunt, colorless and boring (according to her) and completely useless for marketing.

@DoNotPunchDown @nazgul

@nazgul @jwz
When I was a kid we were taught that Whitney's real invention that made a difference was interchangeable parts for guns. (It turns out he didn't invent them either.) I'm not sure what that says about my education.
@nazgul So explosion in slave trade was "likely" caused by invention that reduced number of workers needed to clean cotton? Seems illogical to me. Do you have any data to back this up?

@older The “likely” was for cleaners moving to picking; that’s just a guess. The explosion of slavery it caused though is well-documented. Despite which, I literally didn’t know this until a few months ago when I took a class called Roots Deeper than Whiteness.

See the section “Effects of the Cotton Gin” here: https://www.archives.gov/education/lessons/cotton-gin-patent
Also here: https://historyincharts.com/the-impact-of-the-cotton-gin-on-slavery/

Eli Whitney's Patent for the Cotton Gin

As Eli Whitney left New England and headed South in 1792, he had no idea that he would patent a machine that would profoundly alter the course of American history. While in the South, Whitney quickly learned that Southern plantation owners were eager for a way to make cotton growing profitable. Whitney knew that if he could invent such a machine, he could apply to the federal government for a patent. Read more... Primary Sources Links go to DocsTeach, the online tool for teaching with documents from the National Archives.

National Archives
@nazgul @older It makes sense to me. It is a pipeline. You removed a bottleneck making that part more efficient so it means you can generate more cotton. Eg you managed to scale your operation. Horrible that it means that white colonialists went out and captured more slaves as part of that expansion
@sri Are you sure is was only white colonists who captured more slaves? I don't know much about American history but I recall reading that slave ownership was widespread among native Americans who became planters.
@nazgul
@older @nazgul who created the slave distribution network ? How did those slaves get to Europe and America ? Who facilitated the market of slavery? The concept of taking slaves or indentured servitude is not new in human history and likely you will find examples of it in any culture. But white colonists scaled it as a business not as the spoils of a conflict between groups of humans.

@sri @older @nazgul

The original capture of people in Africa was done by local slave gangs, who herded the captives to ports on the west coast for purchase.

There were plenty of people with dirty hands on three continents.

@eestileib @sri @older “There were plenty of people with dirty hands on three continents.”

What is the point of this comment?

@sri

Mostly this.
To my knowledge, slavery was wide spread in Africa before the Europeans came. Even more common, than in Europe.
But the Europeans industrialised it and introduced grand scale (and worldwide) slave trade.

@older @nazgul

@xilebo
I saw estimates of slave trade scale from Africa to Muslim countries and it was more than 10 million slaves traded during almost 10 centuries. If this is not a grand scale I don't know what is.
@sri @nazgul

@older @xilebo @sri It’s hard to compete with industrialized slavery.

“Between 1525 and 1866, in the entire history of the slave trade to the New World, according to the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade Database, 12.5 million Africans were shipped to the New World. 10.7 million survived the dreaded Middle Passage, disembarking in North America, the Caribbean and South America.”

That’s 4X as many per century. And that doesn’t count those born into slavery. Or the invention of race based on skin color, one-drop, and the “born to a slave, always a slave” rules.

https://www.pbs.org/wnet/african-americans-many-rivers-to-cross/history/how-many-slaves-landed-in-the-us/

How Many Slaves Landed in the U.S.? | The African Americans: Many Rivers to Cross | PBS

Only a tiny percentage of the 12.5 million Africans shipped to the New World landed in North America.

The African Americans: Many Rivers to Cross

@nazgul
The entire population of the world was probably 3-4 times bigger compared to when slave trade to Muslim countries started.

But that is a very interesting link though. In the end there's this: "And how many of these 10.7 million Africans were shipped directly to North America? Only about 388,000. That’s right: a tiny percentage."

So if only 388 thousands were shipped directly to North America, where did the majority of slaves were shipped to? Brazil?

@xilebo @sri

@xilebo @older @nazgul My point is those things that happened in slavery were due to the 'spoils of war' so to speak. The slave trade was a business of supply and demand. That was setup by white colonizers - sure, the African tribes leveraged it for their own gain but that system was created wholly between europe and america. Slavery is not new - using slavery as a new business model is something else and more drastic than what happened in the ancient world.

@older @sri American slavery was very different than what went before. Not just in scale, but in how it’ll created the concept of race, how it maintained control, and how it was used to control the lower classes. There’s plenty of literature on it. Here’s an example. https://youtu.be/riVAuC0dnP4?si=qulyr7Fu0dtAcKCn

But this is a distraction. Pointing at other people being bad doesn’t make us any better. Nor does it teach us how to solve our problems.

Birth of a White Nation

YouTube

@nazgul @older I mean, Hitler looked at all the things the U.S. did and modeled it.

Great response.

@older @nazgul

The Cotton Gin was a major driver in the politics that led to the American civil War, before it, slavery was slowly dying out, because nothing had the manpower demand on that scale. Which is why the ban on importing new slaves made little difference.

@older @nazgul

Then came the Gin and demand for workers, as cheap as possible exploded, multiple slave states were short of slaves to keep up with the profits that could be extracted and they started to lobby to reopen the legal importation of slaves, which hardened the northern (and some southern) attitudes to slavery and led to the creation of a new party, called the Republicans, irony huh....

@nazgul your last paragraph haunts me so often. People don't have the long view. People are deliberately deprived of the long view.

"Millions of people were sold into slavery and worked to death *because* of the cotton gin. The advance it provided did not, in fact save labor overall. Nor did it make life better overall. It made a very small set of people much much richer; especially the investors around the world who funded the banks who funded the slave purchases... this model is still the basis for our society."

this is a word. whew!

@nazgul

@blogdiva @nazgul

I imagine there were people who were cruel enough to look for any reason to enslave more people.

I've always read that Catherine Greene actually invented the cotton gin and Eli Whitney patented it. That they built it together with her idea.

@nazgul Oh yeah, THIS. I think that this is an accurate parallel comparison.

@nazgul @jwz

Jevons Paradox working for all forms of resources, including human labor

@bulletsweetp @nazgul @jwz
Interesting. "Increased efficiency leads paradoxically to increased demand"

I hadn't heard of that before and it seems highly relevant to efficiencies AI introduces & need for UBI etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox#:~:text=In%20economics%2C%20the%20Jevons%20paradox,enough%20that%20resource%20use%20is

Jevons paradox - Wikipedia

@PixelJones @bulletsweetp @jwz The main example of that I’ve seen is highways. Every time we widen a highway due to too much traffic, more people use it and the traffic gets bad again. Yet that’s still the approach we take.

@nazgul @PixelJones @bulletsweetp @jwz

Also housework. All the labor-saving devices (vacuum cleaner, dishwasher, better detergents and polishes, stoves you don't need to feed fuel and scrub the soot off) mostly resulted in rising standards for house cleanliness and decoration. Housework in 1850 took all day and housework in 1960 still took all day because the people setting expectations were not the people doing the work.

@nazgul nice comparison! Unfortunately words like 'Capitalism' and 'They' don't help they just point into a void. I see it like Capitalism -> humans without moral grounding -> sociopaths. Sorry I wish I could find a better term than sociopath. https://chat.openai.com/c/e2bc166a-a6fb-4ef5-bc16-42b1a5c2a812

@glotcha @nazgul I mean, it's a perfectly good word for people who are completely indifferent to the suffering of other people.

I just don't think all capitalists are sociopaths. A lot of them are deluded people who desperately need to believe that this society can lead to a just and equitable society without a revolution, simply so they won't despair, and a lot of this category are desperately poor people.

@TomSwirly @glotcha There have been studies though showing that CEOs tend to be heavy on the percentage of sociopaths. And I pretty firmly believe that you can’t get to the billionaire class without seriously hardening your empathy, at the very least.

@nazgul @glotcha I have known three billionaires on a first name basis (Larry, Sergei and Eric). They seemed nice enough, but I was not at odds with them.

If you told me they were sociopaths I might have difficulty refuting it. To have all that money and power and not to try to fix things.

My mental scenarios for avoiding the climate catastrophe tend to involve one billionaire going rogue and assassinating the others to save the planet. I would certainly pay good money to see that movie.

@TomSwirly @glotcha My personal contacts max out in the high 7 figures. But they’re all nice (and so are many sociopaths—niceness can be a valuable skill to learn). But to be in that position, they have to be able to make decisions that are going to harm people. And over time, that twists you. Do you save the stock by laying off 10,000 people? Or do you risk riding it out? What if you need that valuation to do something big that you think is important to the company? Maybe even the world? Sure, someone else might do it if you don’t, but maybe you don’t think they’d do it as well.

Somewhere in there you start turning human impact into nameless numbers. And you start believing that you’re the only one who can do things the right way. And it doesn’t help that when you’re that rich (especially if you’re well known), you have to isolate yourself socially. You don’t go anywhere without guards. That doesn’t help you stay grounded. The richest person I know personally has managed to keep their wealth out of the public eye. But their number one fear when traveling is still kidnapping.

That’s why I don’t buy into the “they’re just evil” thing. Sure, some may be, but that scale of power corrupts anyone who starts down the slippery slope. I don’t think I’d be able to avoid it either.

@nazgul @TomSwirly maybe thinking in terms of sociopathic behaviour would help. What bothers me mostly are that people are rewarded only on hitting earnings estimates without considering the environment. There are leaders out there that see beyond this, Apple 2030 looks like a good example. It bothers me to a lesser extent that our society sees billionaires as heroes, I view them mainly as (hoarding) losers. Thanks for your thoughts!

@glotcha @TomSwirly
@cstross wrote once of a future where all corporations had to prove that they were providing a value to society. I always liked that idea, although modern times have shown that defining “value to society” would be a nasty battle.

B Corps are an attempt to do that. I don’t know how well it works. https://www.bcorporation.net/en-us/certification/

Politically, the US seems to have completely lost sight of the fact that a corporation was intended to provide protections to owners/investors IN EXCHANGE for licensing and limitations place by the government. It’s a transaction, not a right.

B Corp Certification demonstrates a company's entire social and environmental impact.

Information about how to become a B Corp and the process of B Corp Certification.

@TomSwirly I would pay good money to see that news report…
@nazgul @glotcha

@nazgul I think this gets the root cause analysis wrong on the cotton gin -> slavery thing. The cotton gin itself did not cause people to do anything; it enabled what they wanted to do anyway. The *cause* of the increased slavery was... slavers.

It's important to differentiate, because in a less fucked up world, we could have had the happy "and then everyone worked less" story in reality. Any time-saving invention can result in either "less work" or "more production". The only reason we didn't get "less work" is because we never do that: our society is fundamentally set up to prefer scaling production up whenever possible, instead of just producing the same things with less work, and it's also fundamentally set up to require everyone to work full-time.

*That* is what we need to fix. Making humans do things that could be automated, just for the sake of having them employed, isn't a solution. It's just turning the fine adjustment knobs on the "exactly how shit are things" panel.

(To be clear, this is not to imply that AI is good at everything people are currently slapping it on.)

@emily @nazgul this. Blaming the cotton gin for an explosion slavery lets some extremely awful people off the hook.

If AI truly can replace some tedious work, then it will be people who make the world worse by this. I don't believe any existing AI can, it it's only a matter of time.

Reject AI if you want, you'll still lose. Look at the Liverpool docks after containerisation. Reject the system, not the technology.

@bracken @emily @nazgul
So you're saying that the billions poured into this technology is just a manifestation of human ingenuity, disconnected from profit expectations? Because that's what the poster claims, not that technology is 'evil'. Technology doesn't exist in a void, nor does it appear spontaneously; it exists because of people's expectations of using it themselves and in their societies. Technology it's inherently political.

@bracken @emily @nazgul

The cotton gin made the expansion of slavery to that extent economically favorable; it was an enabling technology.

In my experience from decades in the Valley, enabling technologies are _always_ used if rich people stand to benefit. Those who don't simply fail behind in the Red Queen's Race and get stomped by those who do.

@bracken @emily @nazgul a technology only exists due to + as a feature of a human system, and in my experience it's usually quite clear what people mean when they criticize a technology - they mean the system, and frequently the culture, around it, and its very human beneficiaries and disseminators. that some of these critiques are inarticulate and/or the first few baby steps of a useful political consciousness should not make them worth disregarding.
@bracken @emily @nazgul rhetorically this all too often ends up in bad faith territory, eg the conservative "guns don't kill people" defense. which is not at all what you're doing here. but when discussing "technology" and "society" i do not see many meaningful divisions. as Ursula K Le Guin said, technology is "what we can learn to do" https://www.ursulakleguin.com/a-rant-about-technology
Ursula K. Le Guin — Ursula on Writing: A Rant about "Techonolgy"

Ursula K. Le Guin on the presence of technology in her work

Ursula K. Le Guin

@jplebreton @bracken @emily I think blaming “bad people” shortsells at least two things.

1. The ability of good people to over time learn to look the other way and justify what they do through various means (e.g. religion, long-termism (basically also a religion), what they “need” to survive, supporting their family…).

2. The ability of capitalism to mask the damage being done by creating distance between the person paying, and the deed being done.

The second in particular here. Who funded the slavers? It’s a chain. Cotton growers bought the slaves. They got money to buy the slaves by mortgaging their existing slaves to local banks. The local banks got their money by creating bonds and selling them on the international market. The bonds got their value by being bought by banks in England and other countries (where slavery was illegal!). Those banks got money to buy those bonds from deposits and investments from local citizens.

Did the person depositing their income at a British bank know that they were funding the death of slaves? Almost certainly not. And if they did, well it’s one step down the path I mentioned in the first point.

Capitalism excels at this, and the only real tools we have to prevent it are transparency (via legislation or activists) and boycotts. We’ve seen this pattern repeated over and over; investments in apartheid South Africa, sweatshops, etc.

Can it be done properly? Yes. I just read an article about a bank in Scandinavia that had issues with Tesla’s treatment of unions. They had an investment, so they attempted to use their power as a shareholder to fix it. When that failed, they divested. That’s ethical capitalism. But it’s the exception.

@nazgul @jplebreton @bracken It shortsells 1, sure. Most people *think* they're good people. The ones who are wrong just started from nonsense axioms.

I'm not sure about 2, though. Slavery is bad. Directly helping with a bad thing, e.g. giving loans to slavers to buy more slaves, is also bad. Doing something neutral-or-better with non-obvious downstream effects that make the bad things easier, like depositing money in a bank or inventing a labor-saving device, seems like an entirely different category of actions, and I have trouble categorizing it as a *cause* of the bad thing, any more than water is a cause because slavers drink water.

@emily @jplebreton @bracken I would say the investor at the end is the “cause”. However with transparency about what their money is doing, they can stop enabling the bad thing. When enough people do that, it results in change, because it hits investors in the pocketbook. That’s true whether is divestment, or boycotts, or strikes.
@nazgul @jplebreton @emily fair. I include myself in "bad people" by the way. I benefited from cobalt extraction today, probably you did too. Even if it was all extracted without child labour I still created demand and some of the demand is met by forms of modern slavery. Many other examples of this...
@nazgul @jplebreton @emily Attempting to be personally virtuous isn't going to help anyone. Attempting to end capitalism isn't going to help anyone (unless you can make nearly everyone do it). Applying as much pressure through proven means is all we have. I like approaches like that of Tony's Chocolonely, stay in the difficult markets and try to do right, fail sometimes. I expect to see similar patterns in AI
@nazgul @bracken @emily yeah to be clear i think the concept of "bad people" is totally irrelevant here. i think capital is a totalizing force and when people internalize its imperatives, they are effectively puppeted by said forces and there's basically no limit on how much harm they can do. to resist that i think goes beyond simply "doing it, but ethically", but actually deliberately opposing the will of capital. love to see it, especially re: Tesla.
@nazgul My god, you are on the mark with this. I'm going to try and remember the cotton gin analogy for other inventions that may cause this phenomena

@nazgul With huge error bars many corporations will just shake that off as acceptable losses and go for the AI solution instead. Never minding the cost on the real people it affects.

I can speak of one concrete example from my perspective regarding YouTube and Twitch. They're already relying on AI to replace people and its damaging their audiences who have to adapt to the reality that anything they write or do, is reviewed by AI who does not understand context.

RE: https://mastodon.social/@cragsand/111473568977885665