This whole submarine thing is a preview of exactly how "space tourism" is going to go
(Yes I know it's technically a submersible but no one is calling this "the submersible thing")
@tomw We can only hope so. Maybe we can send more at once? To prevent those pesky "second thoughts".
@tomw Maybe not exactly…people like #JeffBezos take for more precautions than #Oceangate did
TECI Social

@realcaseyrollins
On the other hand, Elon Musk sure doesn't.
@tomw
@phi1997 @tomw His precaution is not being in the rockets himself 😂

@realcaseyrollins @tomw
You want to believe that.

Honestly, it's a probability calculation around the expected value.

If the costs of a crash are lower than the costs of lowering the probability of such a crash, it makes no business sense to try to lower the probability of the crash.

That's why you need regulation with punishment damages if you care about making things safe.

In most jurisdictions on this planet the costs of a human life are a joke (and that includes most Western countries).

@tomw the rescue operation will be a lot cheaper. Unless a spaceship lands in the ocean I guess.
@mjm1138 @tomw did the fla.ing bits of his last bottle rocket end up there. Honestly that is probably where his first "crewed" flight will end up.
@tomw setting the over/under at 8.5y before Muskie turns himself into space dust
@ravensong92 @tomw My money is on when the manned mission he is supposed to be on finally takes place, his suddenly finding a pressing reason not to board 😅
@ravensong92 @tomw Musk isn’t going to self-delete because he’s a coward.
@drobert @tomw not intentionally, no. but as a consequence of his own hubris?
@ravensong92 @tomw My point is that he wouldn’t ever go up in one of his rockets, unless it was nearly risk-free. He’d send others to die for him instead.
@drobert @tomw I guess you give his intelligence more credit than I do.
@tomw Every single one of the news stories about this accident should mention that 42,000 people died in car crashes in 2022. That's 115 people a day. Plus, more than a million have died from COVID.
@maggiefox @tomw it should also be juxtaposed by the 1000 refugees in (Greece?) and the rescuers who are facing jail over trying to help them, and how little help these people are receiving after fleeing for their lives. What happened to “the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few”?
@habituallytired @tomw Except it's not a valid comparison. Two completely different jurisdictions. It's horrific that no one helps the refugees. However one disaster was off Greece and the other incident involved the US and Canada.
@maggiefox @habituallytired This is a stupidly legalistic take given that one attracted worldwide attention and help and the other didn't.
@tomw @habituallytired
Wow Mastodon was supposed to be the more polite social media network. "Stupidly" doesn't sound like polite discourse to me.
@maggiefox I don't remember signing up to not call stupid opinions stupid
@tomw I respectfully disagree. Space travel involves an extremely heavily regulated industry around the globe. Private subs aren't really regulated much. It's something so few actually take part in that it just hasn't drawn in the focus of regulators. Aviation has a long history of strict rules as does space travel. It is not an unblemished record, but the engineering for some time in space are arguably easier than for the ocean(rockets aside). I have high hopes for Virgin Galatic in the future
@bearofhtown But space tourism at any scale is an inherently deregulatory position compared to the status quo. And those Musk rockets certainly have a habit of going boom
@tomw @bearofhtown yep. I don't see 'space tourism' going any better, given who want to run it.
@tomw

Wouldn't be surprised. It's amazing how long it takes for some people to recognize a dangerous environment. Talk to your average Florida man ....
@tomw *grabs guitar, starts strumming away to "Space Odyssey"*...
@tomw We need a law now that space rescues of tourists are the exclusive responsibility of the space tourism industry. So that the billionaires can pay for their own rescue (attempt).

@tomw It depends. Virgin Galactic has killed two staff when one of its vehicles crashed, and the safety of its (not-quite-)spaceplane has certainly been questioned.

On the other hand, SpaceX has been doing space tourism with the same launcher and capsule that NASA has been flying its own astronauts, so it meets NASA's safety qualifications.

@tomw Titanic, the British Comet airplane, space shuttle Challenger.
All showed that overconfidence, arrogance or not listening to every concern is our technical downfall.
It’s happened before.
It will happen again
@tomw if Musk and Bezos' are piloting....I think we could get pretty broad support for it....

@tomw @lisamelton maybe from some new entrants but you need approval to launch that isn't needed for sea ops and most rockets and capsules that could be used are angling for NASA contracts sonate held to a mich higher engineering standard.

There will be some fatal accidents, for sure, but nothing as janky as this "sub"

@tomw maybe. Access to the ocean is ubiquitous. Access to space is controlled. We can agree there will be problems.
@tomw So what you are saying we need to build some new shuttles and make sure we put a *lot* of seats in this time? Elon can pilot.

@tomw

Ditto for manned Mars landing.

@tomw I encourage Bezos and Musk to challenge each other to blast off in their rockets for Mars. Assuming Musk survives getting beat up by Zuckerberg.
@tomw
Yup, was thinking the same thing. The only difference is the direction the hull moves.

@tomw

Guess so. Mission to Mars, with Musk on it…
All this stuff seems a perversion…

@tomw Well, it varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, but the cost of human life locally is “criminally” about 15-20 years (life for murder which normally equals to 15-20 before they kick you out, that's basically the max.), “civilly” at about €1000-€10000/head damages.

With these numbers in the back of your head, what are the probabilities of customer death that you must be willing to live with to run a profitable business?

@tomw Going to space is easier and safer. Low Earth Orbit has plenty of Abort and emergency options. More people have been to space than have been to the titanic.

@tomw

But there are many who will feel perfectly save on a space ship en route to mars with Elon on board, because he is a genius.

@tomw

Golgafrincham Ark B for billionaires?

@tomw without much chance of rescue. Hey what could go wrong in a space ship made by Elon Musk?