#GermanEnergyFact #7: natural #gas

Yesterday, the Bundesnetzagentur released new data on 🇩🇪 natural gas consumption in 2022: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/Rueckblick/start.html

▶️ Overall gas consumption in 2022 was 847 TWh, 17.6% less than 2021
▶️ Households and commerce reduced consumption by 19.1% (wow!), industry by 16.6% compared to 2021
▶️ Savings were driven by much-increased gas prices, warmer weather, and changes in heating behavior
▶️ Some data discrepancies between BNetzA and AGEB data, but savings trend is similar

#GermanEnergyFact #7 ctd.

Zooming in on #gas savings made by households and commercial consumers: in the #openenergytracker, we regularly differentiate savings components related to temperature and to changes in behavior: https://openenergytracker.org/en/docs/germany/naturalgas/

We find that households and commerce have consistently saved gas by changing their behavior since September 2022. Except for the Christmas week it seems - maybe people wanted to have it as cosy as usual during these days? 🎄 Great work by @aroth 👏

#GermanEnergyFact #8: oil

I'm wrapping up this first week with some #oil consumption data for 🇩🇪 (sorry I'm a bit late, this was a family day), based on recent #AGEB data: https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/01-Mineraloel_2022.pdf

▶️ Sales of #diesel fuel decreased by 1% from 2021 to 2022, #gasoline +4%, jet fuel +44% (!)
▶️ Mio t are hard to deal with, so here are derived liter/capita numbers: ~490 l diesel, ~270 l gasoline, ~130 l jet fuel per person. Note: these averages includes all people, also those who never drive or fly.

#GermanEnergyFact #8 ctd.

So I'm clearly not an expert when it comes to supply and demand of oil products; but I found it quite interesting that the sales of diesel fuel hardly decreased despite much higher prices, and gasoline sales even slightly increased.

The post-pandemic surge in jet fuel use is also striking (and worrying).

Thanks for following me through this first week, which largely focused on indicators of #energy consumption. Next week may see a focus on energy #prices, stay tuned!

#GermanEnergyFact #9: wholesale electricity prices ⚡ 💶

Data provided by the Bundesnetzagentur / SMARD platform shows that 2022 was a record-breaking year in terms of #electricity #prices: https://www.smard.de/home/downloadcenter/download-marktdaten/?downloadAttributes=%7B%22selectedCategory%22:3,%22selectedSubCategory%22:8,%22selectedRegion%22:%22DE-LU%22,%22selectedFileType%22:%22XLSX%22,%22from%22:1609455600000,%22to%22:1672527599999%7D

▶️ The average day-ahead wholesale price in 🇩🇪 more than doubled from around 97 €/MWh in 2021 to 235 €/MWh in 2022
▶️ The highest hourly price increased from 620 to 871 €/MWh
▶️ The price spread also increased a lot: the interquartile range increased from 59 to 176 €/MWh

#energymastodon

#GermanEnergyFact #9 ctd.

▶️ The wholesale price increase was driven by a surge in natural #gas prices.
▶️ Further, low generation from hydro power and French nuclear contributed to high prices.
▶️ Generators with low marginal costs have benefited a lot from this - which lead to a EU-wide temporary revenue cap for generators.
▶️ Any technology that could offer temporal #flexibility must have made tons of money in 2022. Probably a golden year for electricity #storage and other flex technologies!

#GermanEnergyFact #10: natural gas import prices

A main reason for the surge in wholesale electricity prices (see #GermanEnergyFact #9) is a record increase in natural #gas #import #prices, as gas-fired plants often set hourly electricity prices. Data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of 🇩🇪 : https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Preise/Publikationen/Energiepreise/energiepreisentwicklung-xlsx-5619001.xlsx

▶️ Gas import prices in 2022 on average increased by factor 3 compared to 2021, and nearly by factor 7 (!) vs. 2020 (only counting Jan-Nov)
▶️ The peak month was August 2022

#GermanEnergyFact #11: hard #coal import prices

Not only 🇩🇪 gas import prices increased a lot in 2022, but also hard coal prices. Again, data provided by the Federal Statistical Office: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Preise/Publikationen/Energiepreise/energiepreisentwicklung-xlsx-5619001.xlsx

▶️ Hard coal import prices in 2022 on average increased nearly by a factor 3 vs. 2021, and by a bit less than factor 5 vs. 2020 (only counting Jan-Nov for consistency)
▶️ This also contributed to increasing electricity prices

(sorry, no graph today, just numbers, as I don't have much time)

#GermanEnergyFact #12: household electricity prices

If you are following this thread, you may recall that German wholesale #electricity #prices increased a lot in 2022, largely driven by high natural gas (and also hard coal) prices. This also led to higher household electricity prices. The 🇩🇪 energy industry association #BDEW regularly publishes household electricity price data for a typical household in Germany, with fixed price components also allocated to consumption: https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/bdew-strompreisanalyse/

#GermanEnergyFact #12 ctd.

So, a few key facts:
▶️ Between 2021 and the second half of 2022, household #electricity #prices increased from around 32 ct/kWh to 40 ct/kWh.
▶️ The relative increase was much lower than the increase in wholesale prices for two reasons:
i) retailers procure electricity up to around 3 years in advance on future markets, so current wholesale price increases are not fully visible yet;
ii) household prices include various other price components, dampening the effects.

#GermanEnergyFact #12 ctd.

▶️ More generally speaking, 🇩🇪 household #electricity #prices include costs for distribution and metering, regulated network charges, and various taxes, levies and surcharges.
▶️ In the years 2013 to 2021, these taxes, levies and surcharges accounted for more than half (!) of the household electricity price.
▶️ In the wake of the current crisis, procurement costs have risen sharply due to high wholesale prices, so the share of taxes/duties/levies fell to under one-third.

#GermanEnergyFact #12 ctd.

▶️ The #EEG levy, which has been charged since 2000 to finance the expansion of renewable energy sources, was abolished on July 1, 2022.
▶️ However, this relief was more than offset by the increase in procurement costs in 2022.
▶️ You can expect that prices continue to increase in 2023, probably to (or above) 50 ct/kWh.

Click- and zoomable graphs and underlying data (also an inflation-adjusted version) in 🇬🇧 , 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷 in the #openenergytracker: https://openenergytracker.org/en/docs/germany/prices/

#GermanEnergyFact #13: gasoline and diesel prices

Not only the prices of gas, coal, and electricity increased a lot in 🇩🇪 in 2022, but also consumer prices for #gasoline and #diesel. Again, drawing on recent data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany #destatis: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Preise/Publikationen/Energiepreise/energiepreisentwicklung-xlsx-5619001.xlsx:

▶️ Average gasoline prices in Germany in 2022 were 23% higher than in 2021, and 50% above 2020 levels.
▶️ Diesel prices on average increased by 40% vs. 2021 and by 74% vs. 2020.

#energymastodon

#GermanEnergyFact #14: import prices of #oil, #gas and #coal

I conclude my second week of German #energy facts with another price graph, drawing on recent #destatis data: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Preise/Publikationen/Energiepreise/energiepreisentwicklung-xlsx-5619001.xlsx

▶️ Striking how import prices of gas and coal increased (and recently decreased) largely in parallel in the wake of Russia's attack on Ukraine.
▶️ Oil prices also increased, but much less.
▶️ Note: coal & gas are substitutes in electricity generation to some extent, but oil is hardly used for this in 🇩🇪 .

#GermanEnergyFact #14 ctd.

Thanks for following me here until now. If you like, please share your feedback: do you find these German #energy facts useful/interesting/boring? For me, it's actually quite a bit of fun, I force myself to look at some statistics which I might otherwise ignore.

Next week, I might focus on renewable energy. Stay tuned, and enjoy the weekend!

#GermanEnergyFact #15: share of #renewables in the #electricity sector

New data for 2022 provided by @BMWK: https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/Energie/230102-erneuerbare-energien-ueberblick-zubauzahlen-und-beschleunigungsmassnahmen.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4. Click- and zoomable graph in the #openenergytracker: https://openenergytracker.org/en/docs/germany/electricity/#shares-in-the-power-sector

▶️ The 🇩🇪 government aims for a share of 80% renewable generation in gross electricity consumption by 2030.
▶️ In 2022, this share increased to ~47% according to #BMWK, driven by a better #wind and #solar year, and some expansion of #renewable capacities (particularly solar).

#Energiewende

#GermanEnergyFact #15 ctd.

▶️ In 2020, the share of #renewable generation in gross #electricity consumption already was as high 45.3%, caused by lower electricity demand during the pandemic.
▶️ In 2021, the share decreased to 41.0% because of higher electricity consumption in the wake of the economic recovery, and a relatively poor wind year.
▶️ To reach the 2030 target, the share must grow by more than 4 %-points per year on average from 2021 onwards.

#rampitup #energytransition

#GermanEnergyFact #16: installed capacity of #solar #PV in 🇩🇪

I promised this week would focus on #renewables, so let's continue with solar #photovoltaics capacity, using data published today by #AGEE-Stat / #Umweltbundesamt: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/erneuerbare-energien/erneuerbare-energien-in-zahlen/monats-quartalsdaten-der-agee-stat. Graphs from the #openenergytracker: https://openenergytracker.org/en/docs/germany/electricity/#solar-pv

▶️ By the end of Nov 22, PV capacity was 66.1 GW.
▶️ The 🇩🇪 government aims for 215 GW by 2030.
▶️ Currently we are on track, but the expansion speed has to increase to meet the 2030 target.

#GermanEnergyFact #16 ctd.

▶️ In Nov 22, this corresponded to 0.78 kW of installed solar #PV capacity per capita.
▶️ The 2030 target of 215 GW relates to a value of 2.6 kW/capita, assuming a constant population.
▶️ The 2040 target of 400 GW (!) implies 4.7 kW/capita. That's quite a lot 💪

#energymastodon crowd: What are the values for you country🌎?

Disclaimer: newer data than Nov 2022 is available from the #BNetzA #Marktstammdatenregister, but not reliable yet because of time lags in reporting.

#GermanEnergyFact #17: installed capacity of #onshore #wind power in 🇩🇪

Let's continue with onshore wind capacity, again using data by #AGEE-Stat / #Umweltbundesamt: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/erneuerbare-energien/erneuerbare-energien-in-zahlen/monats-quartalsdaten-der-agee-stat. Graphs from the #openenergytracker: https://openenergytracker.org/en/docs/germany/electricity/#wind-energy

▶️ By the end of Nov 22, the installed onshore wind capacity was 57.9 GW.
▶️ The 🇩🇪 government aims for 115 GW by 2030.
▶️ Currently we are below the required expansion path, and the speed has to increase a lot to meet the 2030 target.

#Energiewende

#GermanEnergyFact #18: installed capacity of #offshore #wind power in 🇩🇪

Now, offshore wind, again using data by #AGEE-Stat / #Umweltbundesamt: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/erneuerbare-energien/erneuerbare-energien-in-zahlen/monats-quartalsdaten-der-agee-stat. Graphs from the #openenergytracker: https://openenergytracker.org/en/docs/germany/electricity/#offshore

▶️ By the end of Nov 22, the installed offshore wind power capacity was 8.1 GW.
▶️ There has been hardly any development for years.
▶️ But now 🇩🇪 really plans to get started with a 30 GW target for 2030.
▶️ In 2023 alone, there will be tenders for an additional 8.8 (!) GW.

#GermanEnergyFact 18 ctd.

That is, Germany will auction more #offshore #wind capacity in 2023 than we currently have. Some kind of #Zeitenwende, if you ask me.

Fun fact: the last auction in September 2022, 980 MW, had a winning bid of exactly 0 ct/kWh: https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Beschlusskammern/1_GZ/BK6-GZ/2022/BK6-22-011/Fläche%20N7.2_Bekanntmachung/Bekanntgabeseite.html;jsessionid=7B77119881F4C316887AF897182B1869?nn=709672.

#renewables #Energiewende

#GermanEnergyFact #19: heat pumps

▶️ In 2022, 236,000 new #heatpumps were installed in 🇩🇪 - a new record! Source: https://www.waermepumpe.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/details/waermepumpenabsatz-2022-wachstum-von-53-prozent-gegenueber-dem-vorjahr/#content
▶️ The stock of heat pumps increased to nearly 1.7 million (note: this also includes some heat pumps that only provide domestic hot water).
▶️ The 🇩🇪 government aims for a yearly addition of 500,000 heat pumps from 2024 on, and a stock of at least 6 mio by 2030.

Additional info, zoomable graph and underlying data on the #openenergytracker: https://openenergytracker.org/en/docs/germany/heat/#heat-pumps

#GermanEnergyFact #20: #renewable #electricity generation

Earlier this week, I talked about renewable generation capacity (GW) in 🇩🇪 (facts #16-18). #AGEE-Stat also provides up-to-date data on renewable electricity generation (TWh): https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/erneuerbare-energien/erneuerbare-energien-in-zahlen/monats-quartalsdaten-der-agee-stat#Quartalsdaten (sorry for the German chart, no time for translation today)

▶️ Overall renewable electricity generation in 2022 was a bit above 250 TWh, the highest value ever. The trend is good - but we need much more to make the #Energiewende really happen

#GermanEnergyFact #20 ctd.

▶️ #Renewable #electricity generation in 🇩🇪 was 8% higher in 2022 compared to 2021.
▶️ Main reasons: it was much windier 💨 , and there were more sunshine hours ☀️ . In addition, #PV capacities also increased (see #GermanEnergyFact #16).
▶️ The share of variable renewables (wind & PV) in overall renewable generation was 77% (!).
▶️ You can expect this share to increase further in the future, as all the growth in renewable electricity will come from #wind and #PV.

#GermanEnergyFact #21: complementary monthly generation of #wind and #solar #PV

Today, no hard numbers, just visuals: monthly generation from PV (yellow) in 🇩🇪 is relatively high between around April and September, while generation from wind power (dark & light blue) is above-average between around October and March. Nice seasonal balancing (on a monthly basis).

Source: #AGEE-Stat https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/erneuerbare-energien/erneuerbare-energien-in-zahlen/monats-quartalsdaten-der-agee-stat#Quartalsdaten

(sorry, again a German graph - but I'm sure you get the point without reading the legend)

#GermanEnergyFact #22: #renewable #electricity generation in 🇩🇪 since 1990

I'm concluding my week on #renewables with a time series of renewable electricity generation.

▶️ Early 90s: < 20 TWh, most of it hydro power.
▶️ 2022: 253 TWh, more than 13 times as much than 1990.
▶️ Most of the growth came from #wind and #solar power.
▶️ This number has to grow >1000 TWh by 2045 in most relevant climate-neutrality scenarios.

Sources: #BMWK (https://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/EE/Navigation/DE/Service/Erneuerbare_Energien_in_Zahlen/Zeitreihen/zeitreihen.html) and #AGEE-Stat (https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/erneuerbare-energien/erneuerbare-energien-in-zahlen/monats-quartalsdaten-der-agee-stat#Quartalsdaten)

#GermanEnergyFact #23: Feed-in tariffs for rooftop #solar #PV 💶 ☀️

Feed-in tariff for new small-scale rooftop PV installations <30kW in the year 2004:
57.40 ct/kWh

Feed-in tariff for the same new installation in July 2022:
6.06 ct/kWh

Note: The respective feed-in tariffs are granted for 20 years after installation. And both are in nominal prices - i.e. the degression in real terms has been much higher than this.

#learningcurve #degressionatwork #thishasbecomereallydarncheap

#GermanEnergyFact #24: A bit more on feed-in tariffs for rooftop #solar #PV

In August 2022, the FIT for new rooftop PV installations <40kW in 🇩🇪 *increased* again, from 6.06 ct/kWh to 7.10 ct/kWh, or to even 10.90 ct/kWh in case all electricity is fed to the grid and nothing is self-consumed.

The latter is intended to provide an incentive to install the largest possible systems on the entire roof area and not go for smaller installations oriented at maximizing the self-consumption share.

#GermanEnergyFact #24 ctd.

So we are currently trying to incentivize grid feed-in of solar #PV via higher feed-in tariffs to make it more attractive compared to self-consumption.

Fun fact: around 15 years ago, we had the opposite situation: self-consumption was not profitable (retail prices were lower and FITs were very high), so in 2009 a 25 ct/kWh bonus was introduced for self-consumed electricity.

The people who locked this in for 20 years must be really happy today...

#GermanEnergyFact #25: remuneration for utility-scale solar #PV

While the FIT for rooftop PV installations <40kW in 🇩🇪 is currently 7.1 ct/kWh (or even 10.9 ct/kWh in case no electricity is self-consumed), remuneration for utility-scale PV is markedly lower. In Nov 2022, the last auction brought an average strike price of 5.8 ct/kWh.

Utility-scale PV operators receive the difference between this price and the average monthly market value of all PV plants as a premium.

https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/ElektrizitaetundGas/Ausschreibungen/Solaranlagen1/Gebotstermin01112022/start.html

Hm, it seems I forgot to post a #GermanEnergyFact yesterday. How come no one noticed? 😉

So, here is #GermanEnergyFact #26: remuneration vs. market value of #solar #PV in 🇩🇪

▶️ 5.8 ct/kWh: strike price for utility-scale solar in the last auction (Nov 2022)
▶️ 7.1 ct/kWh: current feed-in tariff < 40 kW
▶️ 10.9 ct/kWh: current feed-in tariff < 40 kW in case of full grid feed-in
▶️ 22.3 ct/kWh: average yearly market value of solar PV in 🇩🇪 2022 🤯

#crazytimes

Source: https://www.netztransparenz.de/EEG/Marktpraemie/Marktwerte

#GermanEnergyFact #27: market values of variable #renewables 2022

2022 saw not only record-breaking electricity prices, but also extraordinary market values for #wind and #solar. Average spot price and market values:

▶️ Solar #PV: 22.3 ct/kWh (95% of average prices)
▶️ #Offshore wind: 18.3 ct/kWh (78%)
▶️ #Onshore wind: 16.3 ct/kWh (69%)

Data: https://www.netztransparenz.de/EEG/Marktpraemie/Marktwerte

Since I'm still a day behind, here comes another one right away, #GermanEnergyFact #28: average yearly market values of #wind and #solar power in 🇩🇪 since 2020

▶️ Market values generally followed the exploding market price.
▶️ There seems to be increasing "cannibalization" of wind power.
▶️ I don't see why the market value of PV (relatively) increased in 2022. As the monthly values also look differently, there may be a data error. Anyone who knows more about this? @aurelwuensch @marcowuensch