Everyone hoping antitrust cases are going to solve the Twitter implosion are going to have an unhappy time.

The law isn't going to fix it. Antitrust requires finding that Twitter is market-dominant in the US, which is probably isn't, and the EU is very big but very slow.

I get it; it sucks. But there's no cavalry coming to fix it so you don't have to make hard choices. It lives or dies based only on whether enough users choose to leave to break its dominance.

@Pwnallthethings I don’t want antitrust etc. to fix Twitter, I want them to fine it into insolvency
@monkeyrat @Pwnallthethings he’s not paying rent or paying vendor invoices so insolvency is likely just a few weeks away anyways
@monkeyrat @Pwnallthethings it appears that musk is trying to beat the fines into bankruptcy.

@Pwnallthethings i think we're past the point of no return, anyway.

check out what john bull has written about "the trust thermocline" and think about how that describes this precise moment in time.

https://twitter.com/garius/status/1588115310124539904

John Bull on Twitter

“One of the things I occasionally get paid to do by companies/execs is to tell them why everything seemed to SUDDENLY go wrong, and subs/readers dropped like a stone. So, with everything going on at Twitter rn, time for a thread about the Trust Thermocline /1”

Twitter

@real_sag_astar @Pwnallthethings

The other element he only indirectly mentions is the state of the alternatives. Mastodon is good, but it's showing some signs of not scaling well (e.g., getting a lot of timeouts, today, when using the search function).

@ferricoxide @Pwnallthethings hypergrowth is never something smoothly handled.

further, mastodon/fediverse is a big ol' distributed system so that's a layer of fun all by itself.

i encourage patience. the entire system is being hit hard today.

@real_sag_astar @Pwnallthethings

Been using the internet since 1989. Seen a lot of things go through growing pains. *t breeds a kind of patience.

People that have only ever known things when they've (mostly) "just worked" are the ones I'd fear being immediately turned off and bail.

@Pwnallthethings I suspect the policy itself will have a similar effect to any trust-busting action by officials
@Pwnallthethings my last tweet said, goodbye until the bankruptcy filing
Éric Freyssinet on Twitter

“Any attempt to remove my tweets that link to my other social media accounts, not violating any law, would actually make #twitter an editorial media, and no longer a social media platform, with civil and criminal liability for *any* illegal content therein. https://t.co/kwoFHVue43”

Twitter
@sacha Ugh, no. Removing some subset of content doesn't make Twitter liable for your other content.
@Pwnallthethings @sacha This is like those people posting those things on Facebook that says Facebook has no right to the content you post on it and thinking that’s legally enforceable somehow.
@Pwnallthethings yeah even the experts in this @b_fung seemed a bit skeptical of antitrust measures would apply or be effective in this case. As you said, it’s up to the rest of us to act https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/16/tech/mastodon-twitter-links/index.html
@Pwnallthethings …whether enough *journalists, public figures & organizations* choose to leave to break its dominance. (an exodus of average users won’t change much if the large and/or authoritative accounts remain active IMHO)
@Pwnallthethings Nothing will change from small accounts leaving. The big accounts in politics, activism, journalism, entertainment will have to leave for any difference to be made.
@Pwnallthethings twitter is edging towards the line where they aren't covered by 230... and become liable for content on the platform. at some point, a very heavy hand becomes editorial curation.
@Pwnallthethings it was over when the sale went forward. It’s a private company he can run it as he wishes. I think people are in denial.

@AkiraLeslie @Pwnallthethings

Exactly. And even if he somehow sold the company tomorrow, Twitter will never be the same again.

@Pwnallthethings I don't think that the US or the EU is going to FIX this, but I like that it could make life a little uncomfortable for operations inside Twitter.
@Pwnallthethings users and advertisers. Not many ad folk like controversy. Twitter wasn’t a great ad platform before, either.

@Pwnallthethings

I respectfully disagree on one point, I don't think people staying on birbsite will prolong it's lifespan: it is now the personal Hell of a thin-skinned narcissist with no handlers - Elon has no board to answer to at this point, no outside pressure points.

Twitter will continue until he's dragged away from it, he tires of it, or it breaks - and having more users putting strain on the system might even hasten it breaking.

@Pwnallthethings DMA doesn't require that. It requires only for it to be a gatekeeper.
@Pwnallthethings and I don't want twitter to survive this. I want it to implode and have fun watching it.
@Pwnallthethings Yes, I agree with this. The idea of a cavalry coming is basically the "invisible hand of the market" (and their need for ads) but for liberals.

@Pwnallthethings Could there be danger to Twitter from a national security review, of the type that I've seen suggested in other quarters?

It strikes me that by blocking links to one set of (American) services and not doing the same to another set of (Chinese) services, there may be some evidence there for action.

@Pwnallthethings After Trump I doubt most people foresee any accountability, not to mention it's his website to ruin, but I wouldn't mind watching the EU chase him for a bit. I did my bit and deactivated now I'm just enjoying the schadenfreude
@Pwnallthethings I want Twitter to crash so bad it becomes nationalized.
@Pwnallthethings Why antitrust? Twitter is already breaking numerous EU laws concerning employment rights, moderation data protection and notification. They may be slow but they are thorough. See: https://mastodon.social/@tjmcintyre/109536336317989662

@Pwnallthethings

I wonder what the financial backers of the acquisition are thinking right now, and if they could force Musk out as Twitter revenue and Tesla stock freefalls.

@Pwnallthethings the cavalry is—and always has been—us. The law as it exists now won’t help us, but we can and should change antitrust law to have significantly more teeth, to allow it to respond to these situations.

And every time a conservative says “section 230”, we should be responding that private platforms should be allowed to moderate and censor however they want. The problem is that we allowed any one company to have that much power in the first place, and offer anti trust solutions

@Pwnallthethings Twitter? Is that old place still running?
@Pwnallthethings this is why we need #BadLegalTakes. Already seeing what are probably bad #Section230 takes.
@Pwnallthethings the solution is to vote with your feet and take away the value Twitter has left (the users). That’s how you get back as Musk: make his shiny toy worthless.

@Pwnallthethings It's like the eternal liberal hope that legal action -- the Russia investigation, fraud charges, stealing classified documents, an insurrection conviction, SOMETHING! -- will take Trump down or at least keep him from running again.

It ignores Dr. Johnson's famous remark that "the law, sir, is an ass!"

@Pwnallthethings Where can I find objective stats on whether Twitter traffic is increasing/decreasing, or how many users are leaving or signing up?
@Pwnallthethings i moved over a while ago and am hoping it could fall. But it ending up with an antitrust suit would be a hilarious finisher
@Pwnallthethings Network effects are operating in reverse at Twitter. Such a travesty and own goal.
@Pwnallthethings The more people leave the less dominant and thus culpable it is! I doubt that's the plan but it is a weird irony.
@Pwnallthethings the fix in three words:
say buh bye.
@Pwnallthethings
I´m not hoping that twitter will be fixed at all. I only think that the company will probably end because they are blatantly violating so many regulations that they might need to be made an example for other techs companies.
I understand that big business have a tradition on violating regulations and having preferential treatment but they usually do it in a more discreet way. They usually interpret ambiguous law texts in bad-faith.
Twitter is doing the opposite of that. They are directly opposing the law and government regulators(both from the US, EU and probably other places too). So they will probably be hit with a lot of fines.
@Pwnallthethings This is the right take. The relevant laws in the EU won't even go into effect until next May. No one is coming to save us and so we have to save each other.
@Pwnallthethings There's no saving Twitter, but it sure is fun watching Elon piss away his wealth and his companies trying to feed his ego.
He started out thinking he would be the "disruptor", but everything he's been doing lately has been overblown, extreme reactions to things when they don't work in his favor.
It's delicious to see. And he even provides the salt.
@Pwnallthethings personally I’m more interested to see the long term effects imploding Twitter had on musk and his fan boys.
@Pwnallthethings I think there is little chance that Elon still owns the site by the time the EU (or any government) makes a move.
@Pwnallthethings Oh, I don't think it will solve the problem. I just think it's funny when Elon has to pay fines.
@Pwnallthethings Why does anyone want to solve the twitter implosion? I mean, I guess I get it. Breakups are hard, even when your boyfriend is an abusive asshole. The law is not going to make Musk a kinder, gentler person. If folks want to GTFO, more power to them. If they want to stay on the birdsite, let 'em.
@Pwnallthethings Time will end Twitter, possibly before the end of the year. Their cash burn has to be an existential problem by now. Unless Saudi buys it. Or Buys Tesla. Or both.
@Pwnallthethings Twitter never had dominance. It's user base is very small compared to FB, Instagram, TikTok and the like.
@Pwnallthethings had already decided in 2015 that the blue bird was too invasive…..now with the present ownership, I believe it has passed from invasive to dangerous
@Pwnallthethings It also seems weird to argue that anti-trust should be used to protect a company from imploding itself.
Like, people have been calling on this for a while, pre-'banning those who dare acknowledge alternative's existence'. Which is pretty super duper anti-competitive.
@Pwnallthethings it is time to leave Twitter en masse and let it shrivel by the weight of it's irrelevance!!!
@Pwnallthethings bingo - just MySpace the hell outta the thing and let basic market forces do their part. He can’t force you to stay.
@Pwnallthethings Not to mention that even if antitrust intervention was likely to be successful, it moves at a glacial pace.
@mattblaze @Pwnallthethings Yeah, I remember how slowly the antitrust lawsuit against IBM moved, while my father was working there. Don't care what a court would rule about Twitter 13 years from now.
@Pwnallthethings That's disappointing. I'd been thinking the opposite: enough people are going to leave to make Twitter die for good. It will require decisive action from regulators. If we just rely on market forces, the platform will live on as an effective far right organizing site.
@Pwnallthethings advertisers, and converted (paid) users. Not the non-paying masses.
@Pwnallthethings Oh, I don't think it's gonna solve anything, but watching dude step on rakes has a certain entertainment value, and I suspect he's stepped on enough to get unwanted regulatory attention even if it doesn't end with enforcement or twitter implodes first
@Pwnallthethings let this bleed the little rich boy dry. Advertisers will dry up faster than a Vegas buffet.

@Pwnallthethings honestly the site is effectively dead already its corpse will limp on as a host for right wingers but with no relevance. Antitrust would be another reason for the FTC to review the Twitter acquisition, a nothing burger I know. The EU will likely do something though after the journalist ban now this they are primed to.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/12/18/ftc-urged-take-close-look-musks-twitter-bans-links-competitors

FTC Urged to Take a Close Look as Musk's Twitter Bans Links to Competitors

"Hey FTC, you may want to take a look at this."

Common Dreams