Donald RoyI have started to look carefully at the results of the local elections in #wandsworth.. One remarkable finding has been that there has been a significant decline in the proportion of voters entitled to a #postalvote compared with same election in 2022. In 2022 roughly a quarter were entitled to a postal vote. In 2026 it was a sixth. This is differs from what had happened nationally in #generalElection s - where the proportion in 2024 was the highest ever according to the #britishelectionstudy.
Although the projection is in the public domain and thus cannot and should be ignored I would advise a degree of caution in interpreting it. The use of #ai appears to be novel - which raises questions of reliability. Some parts of it are consistent with other evidence - patterns of ethnic and religious voting preferences reported in the most recent #britishelectionstudy published late last year would support the projection for #barnet .
Which is why some of us are waiting rather impatiently for the publication of the #britishelectionstudy covering #ukgeneralelection2024 - currently scheduled for 21st January 2026.
Thiemo Fetzer πͺπΊπΊπ¦ - sameNow there is many ways to characterise these protest voters. I do a ton of that in my work on #austerity. But these two graphs point out the most ridiculous #Brexit voters (who probably feel a ton of shame).
This is a tricky one to explain so feedback is appreciated. This is coming from a set of #Tweets from 2019 and uses data from the #BritishElectionStudy (see here https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1092043111604387841?s=20&t=ffHujApr9L2glhTgYynAxQ).
The #BES asked people prior to the #EUreferendum what do they think is the chance #Leave will win.
Thiemo Fetzer πͺπΊπΊπ¦ - same handle elsewhere on Twitter
βEven more gold from @BESResearch -- while I do think that online opinion polls are generally extremely problematic due to the likely significant selection bias that it introduces, there is still some signal in the data that tells us about the nature of #leave support in 2016.β
Thiemo FetzerNow there is many ways to characterise these protest voters. I do a ton of that in my work on #austerity. But these two graphs point out the most ridiculous #Brexit voters (who probably feel a ton of shame).
This is a tricky one to explain so feedback is appreciated. This is coming from a set of #Tweets from 2019 and uses data from the #BritishElectionStudy (see here https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1092043111604387841?s=20&t=ffHujApr9L2glhTgYynAxQ).
The #BES asked people prior to the #EUreferendum what do they think is the chance #Leave will win.
Thiemo Fetzer πͺπΊπΊπ¦ - same handle elsewhere on Twitter
βEven more gold from @BESResearch -- while I do think that online opinion polls are generally extremely problematic due to the likely significant selection bias that it introduces, there is still some signal in the data that tells us about the nature of #leave support in 2016.β