Warum dürfen Leute, die keine Ahnung haben, was Modelle und Prämissen sind, Entscheider sein?
Warum dürfen Leute, die keine Ahnung haben, was Modelle und Prämissen sind, Entscheider sein?
2008.
Arzt zum Patienten: "Sie müssen aufhören zu rauchen, sonst werden sie elendig an einem Lungentumor verrecken."
Patient reduziert Zigarettenkonsum immer mehr.
2026.
Arzt zum Patienten: "Sie haben sich für Ihre Gesundheit entschieden und Maßnahmen ergriffen. Wenn ich mir die heutigen Werte anschaue, werden sie nicht mehr elendig verrecken."
Patient: "Ich werde garnicht verrecken? Dann hätte ich ja ruhig weiterrauchen können, Sie Lügner!"
RE: https://mastodon.social/@weatherwest/116636324800880472
This is a long, but important thread and set of comments from @weatherwest about the recent discussions around the #RCP85 climate scenarios.
Expert Gavin Schmidt explains #Rcp85
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2026/05/scenarios-schmenarios/
The above Carbon Brief pieces only checks some of the confusions and untruths in Trump's post.

RealClimate: The fantasy version of the normal updating of scenarios for a new round of CMIP simulations doing the rounds is bad faith BS. As climate folk will know, the community is currently embarking on a new round of climate model simulations to support analyses and projections for the next IPCC report (due in 2028/9). This
Taiwan and China: Prediction of the areas with climate in the 2080s similar to contemporary residential areas under RCP8.5.
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=9281095 @[email protected] @[email protected]
#analogs #analogues #climateChange #climate #projections #dataViz #map #maps #classification #Taiwan #China #RCP85
Climate Change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters all around the world. And in the United States, more and more people seem to be moving to the places that are projected to be most impacted by climate change, from hazards such as flooding, wildfire, storms, drought and extreme heat; and leaving the most climate-resilient areas. At first glance, this seems like a bizarre and paradoxical trend. So, for this episode of Weathered, we decided to see if we could get to the bottom of it. We spoke to experts and sifted through lots of data about moving trends and shifting climate patterns to figure out what’s really going on here and what you can do to avoid moving into harm’s way. Weathered is a show hosted by weather expert Maiya May and produced by Balance Media that helps explain the most common natural disasters, what causes them, how they’re changing, and what we can do to prepare. Subscribe to PBS Terra so you never miss an episode! https://bit.ly/3mOfd77 And keep up with Weathered and PBS Terra on: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PBSDigitalSt... Twitter: https://twitter.com/pbsds Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pbsds