Daniel Swain

@weatherwest
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Climate scientist at UCLA & NCAR studying extreme events like floods, droughts, and wildfires. For the time being, this Mastodon account will mostly be used to automatically repost my Twitter content--I am not continuously monitoring replies or messages.
Weather West bloghttps://www.weatherwest.com
Twitterhttps://twitter.com/Weather_West
Google Scholarhttps://scholar.google.com/citations?user=O1P_qAQAAAAJ&hl=en
UCLA profilehttps://www.ioes.ucla.edu/person/daniel-swain
Although we are, finally, nearing the end of this bonkers March heatwave, it is *still* not over yet: temperatures have resurged once again across wide swath from CA's Pacific coast eastward to Central Plains, with widespread daily to monthly record highs occurring yet again. 🫠
New post on Weather West: As historic March heatwave finally fades, a brief cooler/wetter interlude will occur across the U.S. West in early April before warmth & dryness likely return. Also: a deeper dive into now record-low Western snowpack. https://weatherwest.com/archives/43769
As historic March heatwave finally fades, a brief cooler/wetter interlude will occur across the U.S. West in early April before warmth & dryness likely return - Weather West

March 28, 2026 - Daniel Swain - Unprecedented March heatwave among most anomalous ever observed, in any month, the American Southwest Well, it sure has been...quite a month. Meteorologically speaking, March 2026 will go down in the record books as the warmest March on record for at least a third, and possibly half or more, of the continental United States. But even #

Weather West - California weather and climate perspectives
On Tuesday, Mar 31 at 2 PM PT, I'll discuss the "record shattering" heat that occurred in March and the unprecedented collapse of Western snowpack it caused near what would normally be the seasonal peak. Plus: a brief cooler and wetter reprieve to come! https://www.youtube.com/live/kk55DnUZiqM
Unprecedented decline in Western U.S. snowpack after record heat, though brief reprieve approaches

YouTube
The astonishing rate of March snowmelt in Colorado River Basin continues, and is now well into record-low territory (even, it appears, relative to pre-SNOTEL era). And the extreme regional heatwave is only slowly fading, with unprecedented March melt continuing in meantime.
I can't believe we're doing this again, but...we're doing this again. Another day of record-shattering Match heat across interior West & Central U.S., w/countless March (& even some April) monthly records broken. Some locations are even breaking monthly records set...last week.
The transient trough will then move eastward & dissipate, allowing CA to warm & dry once again. It does not look like we're headed for sustainedly cool or wet April; warmer than avg temps will likely return. But it does appear there will be real, if brief, reprieve in early Apr!
In relative terms, this likely be quite respectable...for April. In absolute terms, this is not a notably cold or wet pattern and will not come close to erasing record-breaking mtn snow deficits that are now in place (it essentially will stem the decline for a week or so).
While there's still uncertainty in how much rain (& high mtn snow) will actually fall, current likeliest outcome is some respectable April accumulations. I'd expect 0.5-1 inch between the 2 systems at lower elevations of NorCal, w/ 1-3 inches of liquid equiv in mtns. SoCal = TBD.
By Mar 31/Apr 1, the ridiculous ridge will finally move eastward, opening door for a pair of decent April storm systems to affect most of the West (including CA). The first storm will be warm, with rain even in high mountains, but second will be colder w/accumulating mtn snow.
The extraordinary March 2026 heatwave continues across the western and central U.S. Yet more daily to monthly record high temperatures will occur over the next few days, and snowpack will reach new March record lows. But some relief is on the horizon...