The astonishing rate of March snowmelt in Colorado River Basin continues, and is now well into record-low territory (even, it appears, relative to pre-SNOTEL era). And the extreme regional heatwave is only slowly fading, with unprecedented March melt continuing in meantime.
I can't believe we're doing this again, but...we're doing this again. Another day of record-shattering Match heat across interior West & Central U.S., w/countless March (& even some April) monthly records broken. Some locations are even breaking monthly records set...last week.
The transient trough will then move eastward & dissipate, allowing CA to warm & dry once again. It does not look like we're headed for sustainedly cool or wet April; warmer than avg temps will likely return. But it does appear there will be real, if brief, reprieve in early Apr!
In relative terms, this likely be quite respectable...for April. In absolute terms, this is not a notably cold or wet pattern and will not come close to erasing record-breaking mtn snow deficits that are now in place (it essentially will stem the decline for a week or so).
While there's still uncertainty in how much rain (& high mtn snow) will actually fall, current likeliest outcome is some respectable April accumulations. I'd expect 0.5-1 inch between the 2 systems at lower elevations of NorCal, w/ 1-3 inches of liquid equiv in mtns. SoCal = TBD.
By Mar 31/Apr 1, the ridiculous ridge will finally move eastward, opening door for a pair of decent April storm systems to affect most of the West (including CA). The first storm will be warm, with rain even in high mountains, but second will be colder w/accumulating mtn snow.
The extraordinary March 2026 heatwave continues across the western and central U.S. Yet more daily to monthly record high temperatures will occur over the next few days, and snowpack will reach new March record lows. But some relief is on the horizon...
Given recent discussion regarding indirect role of anomalous precip (& associated upstream diabatic heating) in amplifying record-breaking heatwaves, even thousands of miles away (inc. Mar 2026 event), I wanted to share this excellent paper from 2025:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-60811-4
Blocking diversity causes distinct roles of diabatic heating in the Northern Hemisphere - Nature Communications
Atmospheric blocking patterns are often categorized into several types and diabatic heating is thought to primarily contribute positively to blocks. Here, the authors show that diabatic heating strengthens ridge blocks, while it dampens dipole blocks in the Northern Hemisphere.
Another day, another sequence of monthly record-breaking March heat across portions of 8 Western U.S. states. Note: some of these monthly "records" might not technically be such anymore following even more extreme record-shattering heat in the same locations...just last week. ðŸ«
It is, ultimately, humbling that so many people and entities want to engage. Truly.
It is also, decidedly, exhausting. And it speaks to the desperate need for institutions to support far more scientists in public facing roles: the demand is extreme, and the supply is tiny.
