For those asking: I am indeed working on a special Weather West update focused solely on potential for a historically significant El Niño event in 2026 & regional-to-global scale implications. Given the depth & breath, it's taking longer than usual...so thanks for your patience!
Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across much of West due to building heat, dry airmass, & occasionally windy conditions as low pressure systems slide down east side of ridge. Highest risk in interior major drought areas, but even CA will see higher risk in coming days.
During this period, elevated daytime & nighttime temperatures can be expected along entire West Coast except possibly for immediate NorCal coastline where are experiencing temporary reprieve from broader marine heatwave affecting NE Pacific Ocean. SoCal waters remain very warm.
As earlier noted, a significant West Coast heatwave will build in the coming days, persisting at least 7-10 days. A strong & at least somewhat persistent ridge will bring war-to-hot conditions West Coast wide. Heat will be most anomalous in PacNW, but will also be present in CA.
Notably, California and the West Coast are *not* yet seeing conditions favorable for rapid wildfire growth, with cooler and damper (albeit breezy) weather for the next 3-5 days. But this too could change toward mid-June, with a broad ridge and possible major heatwave.
I would expect fire season across the interior West to kick into high gear quite soon, with at least 6 consecutive upcoming days or critical or near-critical fire weather (a mix of hot, dry, windy, plus some dry lightning) aligning with widespread severe to extreme drought.
Weather West update: Unusually active June jet stream energizes late season low pressure (w/ PacNW/NorCal showers) before giving rise to broad and strong ridge by mid-June, with significant PacNW/NorCal heatwave possible. Quite a pattern shift!
https://weatherwest.com/archives/43869
Unusually active June jet stream energizes late season low pressure before giving rise to broad and strong ridge by mid-June, with significant PacNW/NorCal heatwave possible - Weather West
June 5, 2026 - Daniel Swain - An unusually strong Pacific jet persists, driving continued unsettled West Coast weather into June The May and early June weather pattern across the West Coast has been--and remains--a changeable one. Repeated late season trough and low pressure sequences, bringing both unusually late-season showers as well as periods of fire weather-elevating dry north winds--have been the #
This enhanced Pacific jet has been helping to "juice up" nearby low pressure systems for much of this spring. But later in June, it appears this jet extension will have the opposite effect: It'll help build a big downstream ridge, through diabatic heating and other effects.
There is still quite a wide range in specific outcomes among model ensembles--including for the near-term low pressure systems and mid-term ridge. That's because the Pacific jet stream remains unusually active for June, with a notable extension from the West to East Pacific.
Then, by the end of next week and into mid-June, a large and broad ridge of high pressure will build over the NE Pacific, bringing a rather dramatic warming trend. Heatwave conditions are likely across the PacNW, and possibly extending southward into CA.
