I am under no illusions about the likelihood that any of the recommendations below would be implemented by the current administration, but I still think it is worth reiterating the conclusions of the #PCAST 2023 working group report https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/PCAST_Extreme-Weather-Report_April2023.pdf on Extreme Weather, which I was proud to be a member of. An abridged version of the main recommendations is listed below.

1.1. U.S. climate-modeling centers (supported by NOAA, NSF, DOE, and NASA) should enhance their high-resolution modeling capabilities and state-of-the-art statistical methods to quantify annual extreme weather risks.

1.2. The White House should designate a lead agency to maintain an extreme weather data portal where observations and modeling products are regularly updated and widely accessible.

2.1. Designate an interagency group to inventory and release federal data that are useful to develop and test weather-hazard models and hazard-loss models.

2.2 NOAA, FEMA, and other agencies as the President deems necessary, should develop guidelines for measuring the accuracy of weather-hazard and hazard-loss models and promote the use of skill-scoring hazards.

2.3 Fund research on risk-assessment modeling systems that use extreme weather probabilities, weather-hazard models, and hazard-loss models to quantify the likelihood and economic costs of extreme weather events.

3.1 The White House should develop and publish a National Adaptation Plan to prepare for and mitigate increased risks from extreme weather.

3.2 Fund research on the adaptation of households, real-estate and insurance
markets, and local governments to changing climate and extreme weather risk.

In 2002, then-president George W. Bush tasked his Presidential Council of Advisors on #Science and #Technology (#PCAST) with assessing the impact of the US research and development investment. The RAND corporation conducted the review and PCAST summarized the report for the President. It later shaped his call on Congress to push legislation to support #BasicResearch even has his administration worked to cut specific ideologically unpalatable research.

1/3

#PCAST has released its last two products of its term. Firstly, we have completed a report on the social and behavioral sciences, and how it can create systematic, data-driven policy creation, implementation, and evaluation that measurably improves the outcomes of such policies: https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2025/01/15/pcast-releases-report-on-the-value-of-social-sciences-in-improving-american-lives/

Secondly, we wrote a final letter to the President outlining what we see as the key scientific opportunities and challenges in the near-to-medium term, which include (but is not limited to) advances in the scientific understanding (across many disciplines) of aging, the reinvention of the energy grid, the deployment of AI to accelerate scientific discovery, and ensuring a nutritious and environmentally sustainable food supply. https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2025/01/15/pcast-releases-letter-on-future-opportunities-for-u-s-science-and-technology/

[Note: these links will be archived at a new location in a few weeks. Readers intersted in PCAST reports may wish to download them ahead of the transition.]

It has personally been a great honor to have been a member of this advisory council, and to see what high quality scientifically informed policy discussion could be. It seems unilkely that many of our recommendations will be directly implemented by the next administration, but PCAST reports have often influenced other agencies and institutions in less obvious ways, especially over time. (Several recommendations from President Obama's PCAST, for instance, were only implemented in the current administration.)

This seems an appropriate time to repost the #PCAST report on enhancing prediction of extreme weather events: https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2023/04/24/pcast-releases-report-on-enhancing-prediction-and-protecting-communities-against-extreme-weather-risk/ . (I was one of the members of the working group tasked to produce this report.)

In principle there is ample public and private data sets available that would allow the public to accurately assess the potential human and economic impacts of extreme weather events, such as the fires currently active in Los Angeles a few miles from where I live and work; but there needs to be a coordinated effort, led by the federal government, to synthesize the data, and create benchmarks to standards to evaluate, and incentivize the creation of, high quality catastrophe models.

#PCAST has released a report outlining a vision for advancing nutrition science in the US: https://www.whitehouse.gov/pcast/briefing-room/2024/09/20/pcast-releases-report-on-advancing-nutrition-science/ . This is an area of science that has the potential to achieve significant improvements in public health, for instance by incentivizing changes to the food supply and in eating habits that can help prevent or mitigate diet-related diseases such as diabetes, obesity, or cardiovascular diseases; however, current federal efforts in this area were not always well coordinated, or oriented towards historical goals (such as correcting vitamin deficiencies) that are no longer the most pressing priorities. As a consequence, as part of a broader strategy (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/White-House-National-Strategy-on-Hunger-Nutrition-and-Health-FINAL.pdf) released by Biden-Harris administration in 2022, PCAST was directed to produce a report identify scientific opportunities, gaps, and priorities to advance nutrition science, with a particular emphasis on ensuring equitable access to the benefits of research.

Recommendations include improving data collection and evidence-based practices of federal nutrition programs (including, if necessary, deploying modern data science and machine learning tools), creating an interagency committee to coordinate the highly disparate federal efforts in this sector (e.g., from the USDA, FDA, and HHS), and to partner with academic, private sector, and community groups, especially with regards to increasing equitable access to nutrition initiatives.

Some recent meetings and interviews concerning #AI policy in science:

2024 US-UK Scientific Forum on science in the age of AI (jointly hosted by the National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society): https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/projects/us-uk-forum-2024/ (I was one of the speakers, co-presenting the PCAST report on AI https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/AI-Report_Upload_29APRIL2024_SEND-2.pdf.)

AI aspirations - mostly focusing on US federal agencies vision for AI in various sectors (transportation, health, education, weather prediction, etc.) https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVq83uNTPbQSVla6Ybce5vOKUoXmGSuS5

Interview with Arati Prabhakhar (chief science advisor to the president, and co-chair of #PCAST): https://www.theverge.com/24197237/arati-prabhakar-ostp-director-tech-policy-science-ai-regulation-decoder-podcast