Futurist Jim Carroll"The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
So, is there anything going on in the automotive industry right now?
What a wild industry!
Anyways, I spoke to this same event 14 years ago - and found an original interview. I pretty much nailed the predictions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB4nndpcOSg
Yet, there were many that were missed or a bit off.
Let's revisit! Here's a set of slides I used in my talk - looking back, looking at today, and looking forward.
The Politicization of the Drivetrain
Quite simply, electric vehicles became part of the culture wars.
The Linear March to Pure Electrification (BEV)
It was believed that one day, there would be ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, and then there would be a world of all-EVs. It's not happening like that - hybrids are taking over as people simply weren't comfortable with full electric, for a variety of real (and not-so-real) reasons.
The Evolution of Autonomous Vehicles
Cars would drive themselves. Massive disruptive change! Didn't happen - it's hard to get to 99.9999% accuracy, which is pretty much what's required. I've got a Tesla with 'full self driving' - but am never really fully comfortable.
The Apple iCar Disruption
Everyone thought Apple was going to build a car, and it would be game-changing! It didn't happen.
Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) Replacing Ownership
People weren't going to buy cars because we were all going to be using car-sharing services. Nope.
Millennials Will “Kill" Car Culture
Not only that, but younger people weren't going to buy cars - because they were never into 'car culture.' Another nope - they got married, had kids, got cars!
The "Peak Car" Hypothesis
All of this meant that we were going to hit the top limit of sales.
Small Car Dominance (Urbanization)
And the car was going to keep becoming smaller. Um, LOL?
Low Interest Rate / Easy Credit Environment
Cars would continue to be inexpensive! Credit would be easy!
Western Hegemony in Auto Manufacturing
Western car companies would own the planet. Sorry, not happening. China does.
The Death of the Dealership (Agency Model)
Car dealers would die because we will buy all of our cars online. Some of this happened, but the dealers fought back!
The Powertrain & Energy Miscalculations
Diesel, baby! Oops! Fraud, baby!
Lessons? Sometimes the road to the future is found my examining the missteps of the past!
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Futurist Jim Carroll's view of the future of the auto industry? Globally, all China, and US car companies become small niche players.
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