#statstab #510 A Note on Dropping Experimental Subjects who Fail a Manipulation Check

Thoughts: Another paper to consider when "removing participants who failed our manipulation check"🤷‍♂️

#manipulationcheck #estimand #experiment #design #bias #guide #assumptions #missingdata

https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2019.5

It’s Not Always Personal: Managing Expectations in Friendship

Have you ever noticed how quickly we assume something is personal when someone doesn’t meet an expectation we had?

A message goes unanswered for longer than we hoped.
A friend cancels plans.
Someone doesn’t react to a gift, favor, or gesture in the way we imagined.

It’s easy in those moments to jump to a familiar conclusion: If they wanted to, they would.

I understand why that idea resonates with people. We all want to feel valued and prioritized by the people in our lives.

We also live in a world where communication is instant and expectations are high. Everyone seems to have a phone within reach at all times, messages arrive immediately, and responses often come just as quickly. Because of that, delays can feel more significant than they actually are.

When something doesn’t happen the way we expected, it’s natural to search for meaning.

But often, the story we tell ourselves isn’t actually the truth.

Most of the time, it isn’t about appreciation—or lack thereof—at all.

It’s just logistics.

Life is full of variables we don’t see from the outside. People are balancing work, family obligations, transportation challenges, financial realities, and responsibilities that don’t show up in a social media feed or a text thread.

Then, of course, there are the things that none of us can plan for. Health issues. Funerals. Emergencies. Loose ends that have to be tied up before you can move forward. Suddenly the timeline that existed in someone’s head doesn’t match the timeline reality handed you.

Sometimes a delayed response isn’t indifference—it’s exhaustion.

Sometimes a missed plan isn’t disrespect—it’s a scheduling conflict, a childcare issue, or simply a day that got away from someone.

Sometimes a thoughtful gesture isn’t acknowledged right away because the recipient is navigating circumstances that make even simple tasks more complicated than they appear.

Sometimes the delay isn’t about appreciation—or lack thereof—at all.

It’s just logistics.

And perhaps sometimes we need greater awareness of our own unrealistic expectations.

Part of the problem is that humans tend to interpret other people’s behavior as a reflection of their character or their feelings about us, rather than considering the circumstances they might be dealing with. Psychologists refer to this cognitive bias as the fundamental attribution error.

In other words, when something doesn’t happen the way we expected, we assume meanings that may have nothing to do with reality. We assume intention where there may only be circumstance.

Without context, our minds start filling in the blanks. Maybe they don’t care. Maybe they’re ignoring me.
Maybe the friendship isn’t what I thought it was.

But the truth is often much less dramatic. Most people are doing the best they can with the time, resources, and energy available to them in that moment.

When we assume the worst—like “if they wanted to, they would”—we unintentionally flatten the complexity of other people’s lives. We reduce real human circumstances to a simple narrative about intention.

But life rarely operates that neatly.

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A healthier approach is surprisingly simple.

Lead with curiosity instead of assumption.

Lead with gratitude instead of pressure.

Intent and impact aren’t always the same thing. And timing isn’t always within our control.

If someone didn’t respond the way you expected, or as quickly as you would have liked, consider that they might be navigating circumstances you can’t see.

Lasting friendships aren’t built on perfect timing or flawless communication. They’re built on patience, understanding, and a willingness to give each other the benefit of the doubt.

Most of us are trying.

Most of us mean well.

Most of us are simply navigating complicated lives while doing the best we can.

And sometimes the most generous thing we can offer the people we care about is a little grace.

If this idea resonates with you, try a small experiment the next time something doesn’t happen the way you expected.

Before assuming it’s personal, pause and ask yourself:

What if it’s just logistics?

And if you know someone who might benefit from that reminder, feel free to share this with them.

Sometimes we all need a little help remembering to give each other the benefit of the doubt.

Because more often than we realize, it was never personal in the first place.

Sometimes…

it’s just logistics.

Support my work by sharing this blog post! Thank you in advance for your help spreading the word about this important information!

RELATED POSTS

#statstab #506 The VIF Score. What is it Good For? Absolutely Nothing

Thoughts: Maybe we need to think more closely about what these metrics mean.

#diagnostics #assumptions #regression #vif #variance #variableselection #error #multicolinearity

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/10944281231216381

"Consistency is only a virtue if the path is still relevant." - Futurist Jim Carroll

Here's something you already know: doing the same old thing puts you on the road to the same old destination.

Keeping that in mind, here are some simple rules to avoid consistency:

Don’t wait for clarity because speed is the only certainty (we don't know where we're going, but we're making great time)

Don’t fear the pivot because the straight path is extinct (volatility is the new normal!)

Don’t ignore the rebels because they see what you’re missing (think about that one - you know it's true!)

Don’t rely on your history because it won’t write your future (legacy is a death sentence)

Don’t prioritize your process because the world prioritizes your progress (be creatively disorganized)

Don’t mistake activity for achievement because movement isn't always forward (invest in free time)

Don’t wait for clarity because speed is the only certainty (jump without knowing!)

Don’t fear the pivot because the straight path is extinct (change yourself already!)

Don’t seek the 'perfect' plan because agility beats perfection every time (you can't plan in a fast future)

Don’t build for today because tomorrow is already here (live forward...)

Don’t settle for the comfortable because growth only happens in discomfort (comfort zone stuff)

How do you do that?

Abandon the roadmap - it was made for a different time

Abandon your assumptions - because they are already anchors

Abandon the tried and true for new things

Abandon perfection because mistakes are your new knowledge opportunities

Abandon yesterday’s logic since it is now basically tomorrow's illogical foundation

Abandon the status quo because it's already obsolete

Abandon what you know to find what you don't know

Abandon the safe plan for the risky unknown

Abandon the analysis and go with your gut

Abandon what you've already done to find what you need to do next

What's the phrase we often hear? I heard it in a song yesterday while driving: "Today is only yesterday's tomorrow.' It's from Uriah Heep, a great 70s band.

Rethink it: "Tomorrow is yesterday's missed opportunity" if you don't change things up!

---

Futurist Jim Carroll has seen many companies fail at innovation because consistency is central to their culture.

**#Consistency** **#Change** **#Pivot** **#Agility** **#Abandon** **#Rules** **#Future** **#Innovation** **#Rebels** **#Progress** **#Speed** **#Growth** **#Discomfort** **#Strategy** **#Movement** **#Tomorrow** **#Roadmap** **#Assumptions** **#Risk** **#Leadership** **#Transformation** **#Relevance** **#Logic** **#Action** **#Onwards**

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2026/03/daily-inspiration-consistency-is-only-a-virtue-if-the-path-is-still-relevant/

#statstab #497 On the Statistical Analysis of Experiments
With Manipulation Checks

Thoughts: All psychologists reading this title will panic. Yes, you can't just delete data and assume all is well.

#assumptions #QRPs #estimand #causalinference #ITT #ATE #bias

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/25152459241297537

https://medium.com/storyangles/10-ideas-that-challenge-assumptions-and-expand-horizons-8ffb08478f1a

Assumptions shape how you work, learn, plan, and solve problems. Challenge them to open space for new ideas.

#challenges #assumptions #broadenyourhorizons #medium #personaldevelopment #selfimprovement #life

"The road to the future can often be found in the missteps of the past!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

So, is there anything going on in the automotive industry right now?

What a wild industry!

Anyways, I spoke to this same event 14 years ago - and found an original interview. I pretty much nailed the predictions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB4nndpcOSg

Yet, there were many that were missed or a bit off.

Let's revisit! Here's a set of slides I used in my talk - looking back, looking at today, and looking forward.

The Politicization of the Drivetrain

Quite simply, electric vehicles became part of the culture wars.

The Linear March to Pure Electrification (BEV)

It was believed that one day, there would be ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles, and then there would be a world of all-EVs. It's not happening like that - hybrids are taking over as people simply weren't comfortable with full electric, for a variety of real (and not-so-real) reasons.

The Evolution of Autonomous Vehicles

Cars would drive themselves. Massive disruptive change! Didn't happen - it's hard to get to 99.9999% accuracy, which is pretty much what's required. I've got a Tesla with 'full self driving' - but am never really fully comfortable.

The Apple iCar Disruption

Everyone thought Apple was going to build a car, and it would be game-changing! It didn't happen.

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) Replacing Ownership

People weren't going to buy cars because we were all going to be using car-sharing services. Nope.

Millennials Will “Kill" Car Culture

Not only that, but younger people weren't going to buy cars - because they were never into 'car culture.' Another nope - they got married, had kids, got cars!

The "Peak Car" Hypothesis

All of this meant that we were going to hit the top limit of sales.

Small Car Dominance (Urbanization)

And the car was going to keep becoming smaller. Um, LOL?

Low Interest Rate / Easy Credit Environment

Cars would continue to be inexpensive! Credit would be easy!

Western Hegemony in Auto Manufacturing

Western car companies would own the planet. Sorry, not happening. China does.

The Death of the Dealership (Agency Model)

Car dealers would die because we will buy all of our cars online. Some of this happened, but the dealers fought back!

The Powertrain & Energy Miscalculations

Diesel, baby! Oops! Fraud, baby!

Lessons? Sometimes the road to the future is found my examining the missteps of the past!

----

Futurist Jim Carroll's view of the future of the auto industry? Globally, all China, and US car companies become small niche players.

**#Predictions** **#Automotive** **#Future** **#Lessons** **#Missteps** **#Learning** **#Change** **#EVs** **#Industry** **#Disruption** **#History** **#Hindsight** **#Innovation** **#Transformation** **#Trends** **#Leadership** **#Strategy** **#Adaptation** **#Assumptions** **#Reality**

Original post: https://jimcarroll.com/2026/02/decoding-tomorrow-daily-inspiration-automotive-trends-the-road-to-the-future-can-often-be-found-in-the-missteps-of-the-past/