GB OPINION POLL ACCURACY
Overall, the GB opinion polling average overestimated Labour, underestimated the Conservatives, were all over the place with Reform and missed the increase in votes for 'Other' parties/candidates.
The most accurate, however, in order, were:
1. Norstat UK Polls (#Norstat)
2. Verian Group (#Verian)
3. JL Partners Polls (#JLPartners)
All of them were less than 2 points off the actual result for each party on average.
The next closest MRP, by some margin, was #JLPartners.
Difference in number of seats won by a party compared to their final MRP projection:
π΄ Labour: -31
π΅ Conservatives: +10
π Liberal Democrats: +14
π‘ SNP: -6
βͺ Reform UK: +4
π» Plaid Cymru: +1
π’ Greens: +3
However, their individual constituency estimates were noticeably worse than YouGov's.
You can see JL Partners' final MRP here: https://jlpartners.co.uk/final-jl-partners-srp-model-project-labour-winning-442-seats
GB OPINION POLL
Headline Westminster voting intention by #JLPartners:
π΄ Labour: 39% (-2)
π΅ Conservatives: 24% (-1)
βͺ Reform UK: 16% (+1)
π Liberal Democrats: 10% (-1)
π’ Green Party: 5% (=)
π‘ SNP: 4% (+1)
Labour lead of 15 points.
Conducted 28 June - 1 July 2024. Changes with 21-24 June 2024.
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CONSTITUENCY OPINION POLL
Clacton constituency opinion poll by #JLPartners:
βͺ Reform UK: 48% (new)
π΅ Conservatives: 21% (-51)
π΄ Labour: 18% (+2)
π Liberal Democrats: 6% (=)
π’ Green Party: 6% (+3)
Conducted 10-19 June 2024.
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Headline Westminster voting intention by #JLPartners:
π΄ Labour: 40% (-1)
π΅ Conservatives: 23% (-1)
βͺ Reform UK: 18% (+3)
π Liberal Democrats: 9% (-2)
π’ Green Party: 5% (=)
π‘ SNP: 3% (=)
Labour lead of 17 points.
Conducted 14-16 June 2024. Changes with 7-9 June 2024.
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GB OPINION POLL
Headline Westminster voting intention. Poll by #JLPartners:
π΄ Labour: 41% (-1)
π΅ Conservatives: 26% (+2)
βͺ Reform UK: 13% (=)
π Liberal Democrats: 11% (+1)
π’ Greens: 5% (=)
π‘ SNP: 3% (-1)
Labour lead of 15 points.
Conducted 2-5 May 2024. Changes with 4-7 April 2024.
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UK Election Results