Mastodawn

Ricardo B�nffy 5d ago

Close-to-home fallout from the Gulf war: I *was* planning on taking @feorag back to Japan in September for her birthday (a significant number one), but thanks to Netanyahu and Trump that's probably not happening now. Grump. (Jet fuel has nearly doubled in price in the past two weeks and it's not coming down any time soon.)

Even if the AI bubble *doesn't* burst we're in for a series of supply chain shocks as bad as 2022. And it'll probably get much worse than that.

αxel simon ↙︎↙︎↙︎5d ago

@cstross @feorag I had a similar idea in mind, this is helpful but also "thanks for dousing my hopes" :)

What rubbish.

James Kemp 5d ago

@cstross @feorag there's also a massive impact on safe flying zones that don't involve transmitting the US.

You can't fly over Russia, Ukraine, Iran, most of the rest of the Middle East, and even Pakistan is looking iffy.

Most of the direct routes from Europe to Japan go through that corridor. It's long enough as it is without going the other way round.

#Pakistan is in a different war, with #Afghanistan, declared the day before the #IranWar and largely overlooked. They're currently in a 5-day ceasefire for #Eid.

https://mastodon.scot/@JdeBP/116154050773877473

Very few European and U.S.A. news services are devoting major coverage to this, the second of three on-going wars involving the world's nuclear powers.

https://www.npr.org/2026/03/19/g-s1-114417/as-pakistan-and-afghanistan-declare-truce-civilians-in-kabul-count-the-cost-of-war

@cstross @feorag

#FIFAWorldWar #TrumpWar #NuclearWar

@themself @cstross

As for #Japan: It has more problems than just jet fuel prices. Its strategic reserves are at best 254 days. Japan Times reported that it released the first month's worth of that this week.

So my thinking is to watch for Japan seriously considering switching from the #PetroDollar to the #PetroYuan to get its oil supply back; because its other choice is military. Neither sits well.

https://mastodon.scot/@JdeBP/116232929091843301

@feorag
#TrumpWar #IranWar #FIFAWorldWar #DeDollarization

@JdeBP Great Power competition is a cooperation contest.

The US has many structural advantages, material and historical and institutional. What we're all seeing in US politics is a takeover by people who recognize that the US could maintain and extend and use those advantages at the cost of becoming less and less white supremacist, less and less patriarchal, and more and more decarbonized. They are setting out to burn the world to prevent any such thing happening.

@themself @cstross @feorag

Charlie Stross 5d ago

@graydon @JdeBP @themself The big question is whether they're weakening themselves faster than they're weakening their perceived enemies. I suspect they are: risible shit like banning all US military spending on higher education for officers is one hell of a self-own.

@cstross It's all a cooperation contest, and right now the only thing preventing "kill these idiots" from being the global common cause is a lingering belief that such things shouldn't happen to Americans.

The visible to a casual observer rate at which the middle-of-the-road middle-aged middle class white women in the US are shedding their (comprehensive, extensive, and brutally applied) "illegitimacy of violence" conditioning is something to behold.

I suspect you're right.

@JdeBP @themself

James Kemp 5d ago

@graydon @cstross @JdeBP agree. Looks to me like the US is busy shedding capability faster than it erodes it in others. In fact a lot of what it's doing is pushing others to cut the cultural ties that enabled cooperation with the US.

Alexander Goeres 𒀯 5d ago

@Charlie Stross here in germany the reporters are talking about the shortage of fertilizers that will hit food production shortly ... trump is so much fun for everyone ...

Charlie Stross 5d ago

@jabgoe2089 Yep. This war is going to lead to revolutions in about 6-12 months time—they're traditionally triggered by widespread food precarity (like the Arab Spring, or France in 1788-89). In the EU (and UK) it's probably just going to drive food inflation (and malnutrition among the poor), but in developing nations it's potentially catastrophic.

Sven Rudloff 5d ago

@cstross @jabgoe2089 Plus other supply chain impacts. Half the world‘s helium production, sulphur for metal / electronics manufacturing,… Chinese producers of plastics-based clinic equiment already declare force majeur, there is an immediate shortage of medical gloves, gowns, etc. Welcome to global supply chains - again.

Charlie Stross 5d ago

@svenrudloff @jabgoe2089 Yes, but we can live without new hard drives or MRI machines for longer than we can live without food! That's why I'm calling this a pre-revolutionary situation. (That, and the oligarchs making it painfully clear they've declared class war and their idea of winning includes downsizing the poor through starvation.)

Sven Rudloff 5d ago

@cstross @jabgoe2089 Absolutely, I am not disputing that. Just wanted to point out that also less-poor countries will quickly see more impact than „just“ high fuel prices very soon. Though it might not lead to revolution (yet one can hope for one or the other facist country).

Dr Andrew A. Adams #FBPE 🔶5d ago

@cstross @feorag
Sad. If you do make it, of course let me know!

Charlie Stross 5d ago

@a_cubed @feorag You were on our very short list of who to tell first!

Dr Andrew A. Adams #FBPE 🔶5d ago

@cstross @feorag
👍

@cstross @feorag I also know some people that plan to go Nippon. They think they’ll be taking a plane in two weeks. With a transfer in Dubai.

I somehow doubt this will happen.

Peter Sommerlad 5d ago

@cstross @feorag

so it is great that we booked our flights for Japan in fall already a few months ago

Claudius Link 5d ago

@PeterSommerlad @cstross @feorag
What are the actual flight paths to Asia from Europe? I would expect a lot of restricted airspace on the way 😬

Claudius Link 5d ago

@PeterSommerlad @cstross @feorag
Just checked. And the corridor between Ukraine/Russia and Iran is really narrow 😬

Peter Sommerlad 5d ago

@realn2s @cstross @feorag

for Tokyo LH is flying over the pole afaik.

@cstross wait for the helium shortage killing MRI and chip production

SpeakerToManagers 5d ago

@isotopp @cstross
There was something in the news about a year ago about a major new helium source in the US Southeast. Haven’t seen anything since, but helium prices have been nearly flat since they fell off Pandemic Peak.

@cstross @feorag

> birthday (a significant number one)

42, obviously

JulesJones 5d ago

For me it's "my sister and brother-in-law *were* planning to visit from Australia", although the past tense is about flying over war zones, because the decision to not be on a plane transiting through the Middle East was made before the tit-for-tat on burning oil fields started.