Charlie Stross6d ago

Close-to-home fallout from the Gulf war: I *was* planning on taking @feorag back to Japan in September for her birthday (a significant number one), but thanks to Netanyahu and Trump that's probably not happening now. Grump. (Jet fuel has nearly doubled in price in the past two weeks and it's not coming down any time soon.)

Even if the AI bubble *doesn't* burst we're in for a series of supply chain shocks as bad as 2022. And it'll probably get much worse than that.

Show threadAlexander Goeres 𒀯
@Charlie Stross here in germany the reporters are talking about the shortage of fertilizers that will hit food production shortly ... trump is so much fun for everyone ...
Mar 20 at 1:38pmWeb
Show threadCharlie Stross6d ago
@jabgoe2089 Yep. This war is going to lead to revolutions in about 6-12 months time—they're traditionally triggered by widespread food precarity (like the Arab Spring, or France in 1788-89). In the EU (and UK) it's probably just going to drive food inflation (and malnutrition among the poor), but in developing nations it's potentially catastrophic.
Show threadSven Rudloff6d ago
@cstross @jabgoe2089 Plus other supply chain impacts. Half the world‘s helium production, sulphur for metal / electronics manufacturing,… Chinese producers of plastics-based clinic equiment already declare force majeur, there is an immediate shortage of medical gloves, gowns, etc. Welcome to global supply chains - again.
Show threadCharlie Stross6d ago
@svenrudloff @jabgoe2089 Yes, but we can live without new hard drives or MRI machines for longer than we can live without food! That's why I'm calling this a pre-revolutionary situation. (That, and the oligarchs making it painfully clear they've declared class war and their idea of winning includes downsizing the poor through starvation.)
Show threadSven Rudloff6d ago
@cstross @jabgoe2089 Absolutely, I am not disputing that. Just wanted to point out that also less-poor countries will quickly see more impact than „just“ high fuel prices very soon. Though it might not lead to revolution (yet one can hope for one or the other facist country).