So my toot about helmet laws increasing heart disease has got a few replies by people wondering wtf. The way it works is that mandatory helmet laws reduce cycling, fewer people cycling results in an increase in obesity related illnesses like heart disease and diabetes.
One of, if not rhe best, things that a government can do to improve health at a population level is increasing active travel (walking and cycling).
1/n
https://theconversation.com/ditching-bike-helmets-laws-better-for-health-42
Anything a government does that reduces active travel will have society wide impact on health. Mandatory helmet laws where governments have been stupid enough to try them have seen a massive drop in people cycling, and the corresponding drop in society wide health.
If a government really cared about the safety of cyclists they would roll out nation wide segregated cycle infrastructure (or just ban cars, both work). The more people cycling, the better it is for society, and for the economy.
2/n
@quixoticgeek So, I think people were mostly reacting to the implication in your original framing that this was a *direct* consequence. What is the case is thatmandatory helmet laws reduce cycling due to inconvenience... and the second-order effect is that people do less exercise (if most of their exercise was from cycling)...
and the third order effect is that disorders from sedentary populations increase (assuming no other changes in behaviour).
(But at the third order, there are *so many* consequences that we're just picking and choosing one that fits our rhetorical position...)
[That said, I am in favour of the banning cars option you suggest...]
@aoanla there may be a delay, but the result is clear. After Australia brought in its mandatory helmet law, heart disease went up. Was it within a week? No. But it also wasn't ten years later. It was within a year or so.
More people riding bikes is an indisputable public good.
@Offbeatmammal @aoanla because utility cycling is essentially just faster walking. Would you think it weird that you don't wear a helmet to walk to the shops?
Ok motorbikes you're going a lot faster. A bike typically is doing about 20kph. A motorbike can be doing upto 120kph (or whatever your local speed limit is). It's a different safety proposition.
@aoanla @quixoticgeek A consequence is a consequence. Creating a hierarchy of consequences is how we end up with such proposals, as head trauma is seen as a direct consequence of an accident. But that's a fallacy at a global level.
Notwithstanding the fact that voluntary helmet-wearing correlates with higher speed and higher rate of accidents (e.g. sport cycling). And that helmets mostly matter for self crashes, not in collisions with 50km/h multi-ton projectiles.
@aoanla @quixoticgeek I'm happily wearing a helmet in my daily life.
But I'm also very happily renting free-floating bicycles when visiting a city without having to bring a helmet in my luggage... (and I must admit that in that case I ride extra cautiously, so I'm fulfilling the fallacy)
@aoanla @quixoticgeek I think both of you are correct, and to make sure we establish something more concrete here, I would model a simple #Bayesian (#Markov) chain:
Helmet‑free → higher bike‑commute mode share → increased daily physical activity → lower incidence of rare cardiovascular disease
@aoanla @quixoticgeek So the quantity we actually care about is:
𝑃(rare heart disease∣ helmet‑free policy)
which, by math, decomposes into:
𝑃(rare heart disease∣ activity level)⋅𝑃(activity level∣ bike mode share)⋅𝑃(bike mode share∣ helmet‑free)
@quixoticgeek @aoanla to make the point, I think you are going to have to compare odds of head trauma/death to obesity.
I don't have an opinion either way. Doesn't impact me (pun shoots, pun scores).
I grew up riding a bike without a helmet. I survived. 🤣
Point is, the mandatory helmet laws are about something that might happen. The same with obesity. Undermine the scary high risk head trauma issue, you're golden.
Just please be right.
@quixoticgeek
This is nonsense.
Similar idiotic nonsense when motorcycle helmets, safety belts or masking (campaigns in 1940s about coughs and sneezes).
@mjr @quixoticgeek
Where are they not tested?
No doubt standards vary worldwide.
Perhaps campaigning for better helmets than none for cycles, ebikes, escooter and skateboards.
Some eBikes are more powerful than 49cc Mopeds were when motorcycle helmets became mandatory in UK. They should need a licence and insurance & real helmet, just like mopeds do in Ireland and UK.
I bought an ebike and gave it away. Too dangerous! Most people I know have worn cycle helmets for decades.
Ban escooters.
@raymaccarthy @mjr the problem with that idea is that any helmet that actually offers meaningful protection would essentially be a motorbike helmet. At which point cyclists would all over heat in the summer (motorcyclists don't exert the same level as a pedal cyclist).
Cycling helmets are tested to the equivalent of a 20kph impact. Anyone going faster isn't protected.
@quixoticgeek @mjr
Anyone going faster than 20km?
That's not safe for ordinary people.
I was suggesting eBikes that are really electric versions of Mopeds should have insurance, licence and real helmet.
Many mopeds when helmet laws cam in in UK were LESS powerful than some ebikes. Some were less than 1.3kW
@raymaccarthy @mjr @quixoticgeek You got me curious there.
49cc mopeds seem to have a power output of 1.5-2.5 kW. That's more than any ebike that I'm aware of (and an order of magnitude more than anything that's road-legal in the EU). I'm sure there is a lesser difference in power at the road, because those CVTs on mopeds can't be efficient, but I don't imagine the gap is completely closed.
Of course, for this converation the power of the vehicle seems beside the point compared to the speed that it operates at. That, I grant, is closer, although the mopeds are still quicker (about double the speed of any ebike that is road-legal in the EU, although comparable to a normal racing bike with a fit rider, or nearly any cyclist going downhill)
@raymaccarthy @mjr @quixoticgeek I like the approach of Washington state here: they have two categories of ebike (actually 3, but two that matter here):
One type has electric assist that cuts out at 20 mph. It is treated as a bike for all legal purposes.
The other type has electric assist up to 30 mph, but it is not allowed on pavements, cycle trails, etc - it has to be in the road with the traffic.
To me the second type seems quite dangerous without a motorbike helmet - and it scared me when I tried one out - but by removing them from protected bike areas the risk is mostly restricted to the cyclist themselves.
(as an aside, I think the 20mph limit for the first type is a better choice than the 25kph in most of Europe. At 25kph, non-electric commuter cyclists are getting annoyed at having to overtake you....)
@swaldman @raymaccarthy @mjr here we have two kinds of ebike, those with a 250w motor that cuts out at 25kph, they are bikes for all legal purposes.
Then we have speed pedelecs, they can go upto 50kph, require a license, insurance, number plate, helmet, and are banned from some bike infrastructure. Popular with people who have an interurban commute.
@swaldman @quixoticgeek @raymaccarthy @mjr Yes. Different rules, different technical requirements, etc. EDIT To be precise: speed pedelecs are classified as mopeds, and need to follow the same rules & technical requirements (modulo maybe one or two points). Electric motorbikes are treated the same as non-electric motorbikes.
(Vehicle classes L1e, L2e or L6e versus L3e, L4e, L5e or L7e)
@quixoticgeek Peter Walker's "Bike Nation" book has some very good discussion about the "trauma surgeon" vs "population health" on the topic of helmet.
Short summary in the Grauniad by it's author
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/mar/21/bike-helmet-cyclists-safe-urban-warfare-wheels
The question of whether cyclists should wear helmets provokes fury – often from those on four wheels. But which has the bigger benefit: increased physical safety, or creating a better environment for people to cycle helmet-free?
@quixoticgeek Complex systems!Society is one - where non-linear feedback loops dominate.
Another factor here is that drivers give less room to helmeted cyclists as they are seen as less vulnerable. As if.
@coolandnormal @passwordsarehard4 @quixoticgeek
Actually not, because that framing assumes that helmet laws are actually effective—which is not even remotely settled.
The studies that I know of that support helmet laws almost invariably focus on helmets preventing *head injuries*, not helmets preventing *deaths*. But that does not mean that they are an effective intervention, because a) many head injuries are not deadly, and b) head injuries are not necessarily the most common cause of death, or even typical, in traffic collisions.
In fact, there is some evidence that helmet laws increase traffic deaths (due to reduced safety in numbers, risk compensation, or dehumanization effects)
@mrosin you've shown a lot of patience!
@passwordsarehard4 you can't make up your own science based on what feels nice, that's not how science works.
In the Netherlands with probably the largest bicycle density (flat country helps) in Europa nobody wears bike helmets, never have…
With e-bikes the accidents increase though…
@xs4me2 0.4% of cyclists in the Netherlands wear a helmet. Helmet wearers account for 13% of cyclists ending up in hospital...
Ergo helmets cause hospitals?!?
Not to get too morbid here, but is that because people who die at the scene in accidents don't count towards hospital visits?
@DaveMWilburn @xs4me2 no. It's because helmets give a false sense of safety, and are largely worn by racing cyclists and mountain bikers who engage in a more risky form of cycling than a utility cyclist cycling for transport.
I've cycled over 40000km in the Netherlands. I've visited every municipality by bike. I have a pretty good understanding of Dutch cycle infrastructure.
Quixoticgeek
aoanla
Offbeatmammal
波鉄 (Hatetsu)
Cycling on Rails
Korawich Kavee
Taran Rampersad
Ray McCarthy
MJ Ray
Simon Waldman
Jos Dingjan
bovaz
congusbongusgames
Chuckles
Mostafa Hussein Omar
Deane Barker
JF 
Jfrench
Neil Moffatt
Passwordsarehard4
Ho Ho Ho Like The Slur
Maximilian Rosin
Fish Id Wardrobe ⁂
xs4me2
Dave Wilburn 