Jason BeetsLet's take a look at the final Real Clear Politics polling averages for the 2025 elections.
1/x
Mikie Sherrill (D) leads the New Jersey Governor's race by 3.3%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2025/new-jersey/sherrill-vs-ciattarelli
2/x
Abigail Spanberger (D) leads the Virginia Governor's race by 10.2%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2025/virginia/spanberger-vs-earle-sears
3/x
Zohran Mamdani (D) leads the New York City Mayor's race by 14.3%.
4/x
Polls close in Virginia in 12 minutes.
5/x
The Genius of the Louvre Heist
Neil deGrasse Tyson discusses the challenges of being a public figure in the age of generative AI and deepfake videos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EA0Bx2OeDj8
7/x
It’s Getting Harder To Know What’s Real
William Tell Overture
Polls will close in New Jersey in an hour.
Polls in New York City will close in two hours.
Polls in California will close in four hours.
9/x
The polls have closed in Virginia.
10/x
The New York Times has called 15 races in the Virginia House of Delegates for Democratic candidates.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/11/04/us/elections/results-virginia.html
11/x
All 15 of these races were uncontested.
12/x
Polls in Kansas close in an hour.
So if you haven't already voted in your municipal and school board elections, you still have time to do so.
13/x
Ryan Geddie challenges American liberals to consider what constitutes their vision for the good life.
Geddie calls for liberals to adopt a vision for the future worth aiming for, rather than falling back on consensus liberalism, at a time when reactionary conservatism has eliminated the opportunity for building coalitions across shared values.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMndKAT6Neg
14/x
Ezra Klein and What Happened to American Liberals?
Ryan Geddie and J.J. McCullough discuss political archetypes, of their own creation, in a lighthearted jaunt through American politics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDnX7ei9f2o
15/x
American Political Archetypes Explained With @JJMcCullough
The vote totals are changing every few seconds.
An estimated 10% of total votes have been counted in the Virginia Governor's race.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/11/04/us/elections/results-virginia.html
16/x
With 22% of votes counted in the Virginia Governor's race, Abigail Spanberger (D) leads by 15.2%.
17/x
With 22% of votes counted in the Virginia Lieutenant Governor's race, Ghazala Hashmi (D) leads by 11%.
18/x
Lieutenant is a really hard word to spell.
The "oo" sound in in word is spelled "ieu". How are you supposed to remember that?
Could we just start calling the position "Vice Governor"?
That would be so much easier.
19/x
With 25% of votes counted, Jay Jones (D) leads the Virginia Attorney General's race by 3.8%.
20/x
Polls close in Kansas and New Jersey in 10 minutes.
21/x
Alternatively, we could change the spelling of Lieutenant to Lootenant, and keep the word.
22/x
With 33% of votes counted, Spanberger (D) leads by 9.6%.
23/x
With 34% of votes counted, Ghazala Hashmi (D) leads by 5.3% in the Virginia Vice Governor's Race.
24/x
With 35% of votes counted, Jay Jones (D) leads by less than 1% in the Virginia AG's race.
25/x
Polls have closed in Kansas and New Jersey.
26/x
The Associated Press has called the Virginia Governor's Race for Abigail Spanberger (D).
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/11/04/us/elections/results-virginia-governor.html
27/x
Democrats have scored their first big victory in the 2025 elections.
28/x
With 43% of votes counted, Abigail Spanberger (D) leads by 11%.
29/x
With 45% of votes counted Ghazala Hashmi (D) leads by 6.3% in the Vice Governor's Race in Virginia.
30/x
With 48% of votes counted, Jay Jones (D) leads by less than 2% in the Virginia AG race.
31/x
The Virginia AG race looks like it's going to be a photo finish.
32/x
With 22% of votes counted, Mikie Sherrill (D) leads the New Jersey Governor's Race by 28%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/11/04/us/elections/results-new-jersey-governor.html
33/x
The Riley County Clerk's office has published a document appearing to show how voters who cast ballots in advance of election day voted.
https://www.rileycountyks.gov/DocumentCenter/View/26168/UNOFFICIAL-ADVANCE-REPORT?bidId=
34/x
The "Advance Report" appears to show that 7% of registered voters voted early, either in person or by mail.
35/x
In the Manhattan City Commission election, Larry Fox, Jim Morrison, and Amber Starling, performed the best among early voters.
36/x
Nine people are running for three seats on the Manhattan City Commission.
Amber Starling is my favorite candidate, Larry Fox is my least favorite candidate, and Jim Morrison is my sixth favorite candidate.
I placed Morrison in the middle tier of candidates running in the race.
37/x
Lew Faust, Jayme Morris-Hardeman, and Courtney Jane Hochman performed the best with early voters in the USD 383 School Board race.
These are the three candidates I voted for and endorsed.
38/x
The Associated Press has called the Virginia Lieutenant Governor's Race for Ghazala Hashmi (D).
39/x
With 62% of votes counted, Ghazala Hashmi (D) leads by 6.6%.
40/x
With 64% of votes counted, Jay Jones (D) leads in the Virginia AG race by less than 2%.
41/x
20 minutes until polls close in New York City.
2 hours and 20 minutes until polls close in California.
42/x
Returning to the preferences of early voters in the Manhattan City Commission Race, Abena Taylor and Martha Sweeney performed the worst with early voters.
Abena Taylor was in my bottom tier of candidates.
Martha Sweeney was among the candidates I voted for and endorsed. Sweeney is my second favorite candidate in the race.
43/x
I will have to remember for future reference that Virginia counts its votes quickly.
44/x
With 38% of votes counted, Mikie Sherrill (D) leads the New Jersey Governor's race by 15.7%.
45/x
The New York Times forecasts Sherrill (D) is on track to receive 56% of the final vote.
If that happens, that would mean Sherrill would win by 12%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/11/04/us/elections/results-new-jersey-governor.html
46/x
Sherrill appears to be on track to massively outperform the polling average in her race.
Sherrill only led the Real Clear Politics polling average in the New Jersey Governor's Race by 3.3%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2025/new-jersey/sherrill-vs-ciattarelli
47/x