I would maybe like people to stop declaring Trump the winner of the election ahead of the fact because of this or that. Not sure that accomplishes anything. He's still a deranged fucking creepy weirdo, it's possible people don't want him back. Just please and thank you etc.
Like yes he might very well win and we should all be aware of the extremely real dangerous possibility of that, but also he can be beaten and we should all be working toward that possibility I think, because him winning would be, to use a wonky technical political term, bad.

@JuliusGoat

According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden has maintained a statistical advantage over Trump in winning the electoral college throughout the the press's post debate freakout.

I honestly don't think anyone who stands against Trump is likely to change their vote out of sympathy.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2E8V1dqloLAgwv4hskZBnpPYHaKX785gmxUA227kK54Q8uGWxGh2f8V0E_aem_WaE2apMuUPre4wojISXTcg

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? - Virginia

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

FiveThirtyEight

@todymotmot @JuliusGoat

Please, god, ANYONE but FiveThirtyEight! Don't let Lucy near that football!

@todymotmot @JuliusGoat it's less about people changing their vote between red and blue and more about enthusiasm to show up at all. Which college student is going to volunteer late nights for Biden? Which Arab-American is going to make sure that Grandma has a ride to the polls to vote for someone who killed her brother? Meanwhile swing state Republicans are enfranchised, energized, and totally convinced of their guy's superiority.

In FPTP the popular guy doesn't win, the most unified bloc does

@wilbr @JuliusGoat

Republicans have the attention span of a goldfish.

And the Arab-Americans that I know will absolutely drive Grandma to the polls; remember Trump's promise to help Netanyahu "finish the job" of genocide as quickly as possible.

People who care about Palestine know Biden was pushed into agreeing with the funding by Republicans; only Democrats have pushed back.

Al Jazeera's bias for MBS's buddy, Trump isn't all that reasonable to most of us.

@todymotmot @wilbr @JuliusGoat

Trump would be worse for the Palestinians no doubt, but claiming Biden is being forced into sponsoring Israel's wreckless and messianic crimes against humanity by the Republicans is absurd.

@buermann @todymotmot @JuliusGoat yeah he's come out and said he's a proud zionist and has accepted millions from the Israel lobby. Anyway what does appeasing Republicans get him? He's not even trying to pass anything afaik.
@wilbr @buermann @todymotmot @JuliusGoat Really? Where? Citation please.
Joe Biden, a proud 'Zionist' since 1973

As the first US president to declare himself a 'Zionist,' Biden is determined to remain true to a commitment to Israel that goes back more than half a century.

Le Monde
@wilbr @buermann @todymotmot @JuliusGoat You're talking about things nearly 50 years ago? You're really grasping at straws aren't you?
@ariaflame @buermann @todymotmot @JuliusGoat I'm gonna need you to read past the headline, friend, this was very recent and also very longstanding. He said he was one then, and he says he's one now too. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/i-am-zionist-how-joe-bidens-lifelong-bond-with-israel-shapes-war-policy-2023-10-21/
'I am a Zionist': How Joe Biden's lifelong bond with Israel shapes war policy

When Joe Biden met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his war cabinet during his visit to Israel, the U.S. president assured them: "I don't believe you have to be a Jew to be a Zionist, and I am a Zionist."

Reuters

@wilbr @ariaflame @buermann @JuliusGoat

Get real.

Biden is openly calling for ceasefires.
He's met with Israeli officials, cutting out Netanyahu to undemine his authority
He's publicly dropped a peace plan that forces Netanyahu to admit he's got no desire for peace, stirring up Israeli protests against the war.
He's publicly called on the US to change it's policy specifically because Netanyahu is killing civilians.

@wilbr @ariaflame @buermann @JuliusGoat

It's clear what you want - take support away from Biden so Netanyahu is safe to carry on his massacre.

Read past the headline of the article YOU POSTED. It talks about Biden asking hard questions, the US pressuring Israel, tensions between the leaders.

You can fake-rage all you want about how you really feel Biden is a Zionist. You're the Zionist, and we won't be your useful idiots.

@todymotmot @ariaflame @buermann @JuliusGoat ha! Oh buddy, if only all that were true. Firstly I've physically been to Israel and have consistently pissed off Zionists with my pro-liberation rhetoric. Israel is a settler-colonial project founded on ethnic cleansing. Secondly Biden sure does a lot for show but as Israel has admitted it'd all stop tomorrow if the US stopped sending weapons and money. Biden has consistently sent both with only token interruptions. He could stop this any time.

@wilbr @ariaflame @buermann @JuliusGoat

Just how stupid do you think we are?

Biden didn't force Congress to send Israel weapons, and REPUBLICANS are the ones threatening to go after Biden if he stops their support.

You can't trick us into thinking Biden/Dems are responsible for all the despicable things Trump/Pubs do. And you certainly aren't going to convince us that we can fix everything by replacing Biden/Dems with Trump/Pubs.

NO ONE IS THAT FREAKING STUPID.
You are a Zionist.

@todymotmot @ariaflame @buermann @JuliusGoat so when Biden threatens that he'll withhold weapons, does that mean he does or does not have the ability to control his own foreign policy? Which is it, is he a powerless figurehead or responsible for the actions of his administration? Does he have veto power? When he repeatedly says he's a zionist is he lying? Is Trump the current commander in chief?

Also please stop yelling and accusing.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/middleeast/biden-weapons-deliveries-israel-reaction-intl/index.html

Biden’s threat to halt weapons deliveries sparks anger and infighting among Israeli officials

Israeli officials have slammed US President Biden over remarks to CNN he would halt some weapons shipments to Israel if a full-scale Rafah ground operation is launched.

CNN

@wilbr @todymotmot @ariaflame @JuliusGoat

One might ask how Republicans are forcing the Biden administration to cover Israel's ass in the UN.

@buermann @wilbr @ariaflame @JuliusGoat

One might ask why you are vaguely handwaving about some undefined UN event, and ignoring Trump's open enthusiasm for genocide.

And remember Trump helped entrench Netanyahu's corrupt hold on Israel and destroyed the Iranian treaty that built on common interests, purposefully giving free rein to extremists to arm Hezbollah and Hamas.

One might ask why such facts appear irrelevant to you.

@todymotmot @wilbr @ariaflame @JuliusGoat

My post that launched your accusatory -- and too baseless to be prosecutorial -- tirades far upthread clearly stated "Trump would be worse for the Palestinians no doubt", you goon, you illiterate asshat.

Everyone knows the UNSC would wind up putting Israel under increasingly harsh sanctions with the mere abstention of the US' veto. Do you think the Israelis are less human than the baasskaps of South Africa?

@buermann @wilbr @ariaflame @JuliusGoat

WTF is wrong with you???

I'm not your therapist.
I'm not here to coddle you while you dump all your icky feelings about Biden from watching too much Al Jazeera.

So you know Trump is way worse. Yay for you. Now do something about it.

@buermann @wilbr @ariaflame @JuliusGoat

And by all means, push for Biden to do more for Palestinians. I am too.

But you better damn well let everyone know that protecting Palestinians is why you support him, or my friends are going to be very dead, very soon.

And you damn well better put more time and effort into ripping apart the Republicans for their support of Israel. Most don't even know what the UNSC is. Take that frustration and rip their stupid dystopian fantasies to shreds. Please.

@todymotmot @wilbr @ariaflame @JuliusGoat

So bossy. Really putting us in our place Tody. I'm not sure your unconvincing lies are really helping the cause but good luck with them.

@wilbr @ariaflame @buermann @JuliusGoat

You first.

Explain why you want Trump/Pubs to escalate and finish Israel's genocide, and how that's going to help my Palestinian friends.

Then I'll explain how Biden's foreign policy works and what some of the legal restrictions are.

And I actually have friends in the West Bank from when I traveled there solo while living in Turkey. So yeah I'm going to yell at people who want to kill them.

@todymotmot @ariaflame @buermann @JuliusGoat I don't. Full stop. Trump is a fascist and Biden is a diet fascist and Congress is full of fascists and collaborators and they're all willfully abetting genocide and Israel is a genocidal colony of America/Europe. I also am going to yell at the people who are trying to kill Palestinians, so I'm not sure why you're yelling at me as if I haven't been following this since I was stopped by a man with an Uzi when I made a wrong turn near Jericho.

@wilbr @ariaflame @buermann @JuliusGoat

Oh that's super! When disabled people lose healthcare, public school kids lose access to grants and loans for college, women bleed out from ectopic pregnancies, POC are blocked from voting by purges, lack of polling sites, I'm gonna feel so much better about how we dodged the "diet fascist!"

Well played, my friend! I applaud you for your amazing communication and dedication to taking responsibility! Thanks for not giving up and spelling it all out!

@todymotmot @ariaflame @JuliusGoat save your anger for the political establishment that's putting forward a self-proclaimed zionist abetting a genocide with visible cognitive decline and ridiculously advanced age, with depressing approval ratings, and without any sort of actual primary to see who the best candidate might be. I have no idea why you're directing so much of your ire at me, who only jumped into this thread to state the fact that Biden is a zionist by his own words.

@wilbr @ariaflame @JuliusGoat

Aren't you a piece of work.

No. I'm not going to throw Black people, Palestinians, disabled, women, and all of democracy under the bus just because some ignorant mastodon troll doesn't know how politics work, says stupid shit, and gets pissed when people correct him.

Grow up.

And oh look, Biden's lead just increased.

@todymotmot
Completely agree.

This kind of violence has no place in our elections, but Trump is still a felon, a fraud, a crook, a traitor, a rapist, and a pedophile.

His own calls for violence, executions, and a new civil war are to blame.

@JuliusGoat it accomplishes exactly what the people wanting him to win want: it demoralizes people and it further divides the left into, "we can't win with Biden, let us imagine an unfeasible scenario without him (and w/o VP Harris)" and those who stand on political and historical reality, behind Biden.

It's not an accident, it's not a bug: it's progapanda working as designed.

ETA: so let us not give it so much air, pretty please.

#USPolitics #2024Election

@JuliusGoat @inthehands
George Wallace did not win.
@Voline @JuliusGoat
Despite multiple attempts!
@inthehands @JuliusGoat
I thought he was only shot the one time.
@Voline @JuliusGoat
Ah, yes, sorry, I meant running multiple times as a horrible person
@inthehands @Voline @JuliusGoat Ford had several attempts though, shooting at candidates was a thing during the 70s
@maxthyme
Most famously, Lynette “Squeaky” Fromme.
@JuliusGoat I don’t believe he will receive 50M votes. Everyone is so tired of him
@JuliusGoat “Don’t pay in advance for problems you may have solved beforehand”— me
@JuliusGoat I keep thinking back to that time last May when Trump spoke at the Libertarian Party convention and was heckled and booed while he insisted that they had to vote for him. That was a rare step out of his comfort bubble and perhaps an indicator that he's more desperate for votes than he pretends.
@JuliusGoat It could accomplish something if it gets us a nominee who is more physically capable of prosecuting a sustained, even clever and adaptive, case against Trump.
@JuliusGoat WaPo reports that a registered Republican was the suspect, so the end isn't necessarily nigh for Democrats ( https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/13/2024-election-campaign-updates-biden-trump-rally/ )
Live updates: FBI names 20-year-old Pennsylvania man as suspected Trump rally shooter

The FBI named Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, as the suspected shooter at the Butler, Pa., rally, which left one spectator dead and critically injured two others. Former president Donald Trump said he was shot in the ear.

The Washington Post
@JuliusGoat I think these predictions say as much about our fear and exhaustion as it does about any actual improvement in his chances.
@JuliusGoat
I block them...
Same with the people continuing to propagate MSM B.S.