This is a remarkable graph.

You might have heard that "EV sales are slumping", "people are starting to avoid EVs", etc.

That's not what's happening.

What's happening is "Tesla is cratering so hard that it's skewing the aggregate market data."

Or, put differently, "Tesla is failing harder than the entire rest of the market is succeeding, combined."

@mhoye People got it out of their system and realize that until battery capacity improves it's not worth the effort and the thousands of dollars it costs to install a decent charger in your garage.
@ShredderFeeder Speaking as somebody who did that, the number of thousands of dollars it costs to install a decent charger in your garage is "0.7" and it pays for itself in a few weeks.

@mhoye

1. My garage is on the opposite side of my house from my electrical panel.

2. My electrical panel is full.

3. Installing a car charger would involve upgrading the feed from the street to support the extra 50A circuit.

4. If you found a qualified, licensed electrician to do that job for $700 including the cost of the charger, please give me his name, because he's the cheapest electrician I've ever heard of.

@ShredderFeeder @mhoye Our panel is full too but we previously had a Nissan leaf and the charger that it came with just plugged into a regular plug. It only did slow charging but that worked for us
@CosmicTraveler @mhoye I had a friend buy one of those a few years back. I think he took it back after about two weeks and bought a Prius.
@ShredderFeeder @CosmicTraveler @mhoye
L2 charging is all you need at home. You have plenty of time to charge while parked. And it's better for the battery. Save fast charging for road trips.

@jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye When I do road trips I do straight through trips. (half of my annual mileage is my summer beach trip, and I usually do it in a single drive with a 10 minute gas break.

530 miles in about 6 hours. Can't do that in an electric.

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye

You would need maybe two charge stops. So it would take 40 minutes total, 30 additional minutes.

Definitely sounds like a dealbreaker to me.

@arigesher @ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye and oh boy. Two 20-minute breaks on a 10 hour ride (iso 1x10 minutes) would make it more relaxed and save. The horror!
@KFvMalssen @arigesher @ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye Yeah, I have to do more breaks on a job, where I'm not even able to kill anyone.
Would definitely make the street safer for everyone
@arigesher @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye The last 100 or so miles is charger-station-free backwater South Carolina. So it would have to be one good charge at the halfway point more likely...and you'd coast into that one on your last electrons..

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye sure, if you’re driving a Leaf or something.

300 miles and 75% fast charge has become roughly standard.

You charge to 200 at 250 and 450 miles, and roll into the beach with 120 miles in the battery.

@mhoye @ShredderFeeder @CosmicTraveler @jannem

Or spend some extra time 100 miles out to charge 85% (255 miles range) and then roll in with 155 miles range.

@arigesher 300 *EPA* miles and 75% fast charging are fairly standard but you don't see that in real highway conditions. Comfortable range for most EVs on a road trip is well inside 200 miles. Yes, there are things that have more range, but to make use of that range you have to charge more slowly which makes the overall trip longer.
@malwareminigun yeah, definitely some slop in there. Doesn’t change much for this particular road trip (assuming overnight charging so you can roll in to the beach with less than 100 miles).

@malwareminigun but a bigger battery will still charge quickly to 75% (my car has a bigger battery since it’s heavy).

Smaller batteries will cut down the charge stop time to under 20 minutes, no?

The takeaway is really: yes, it’s a little slower. But often that just doesn’t really matter; sometimes it does.

@arigesher Charge rate is correlated with pack size but is not entirely pack size. For instance, EGMP vehicles like my Ioniq 5 have smaller batteries than most Teslas, but charge much Much faster. That means EGMP wins road trips even though they have smaller batteries.... as long as the charger is working :)
@malwareminigun damn you and your 800v goodness!
@arigesher As soon as superchargers open up that will be the great equalizer there since they're not 800V capable. I tested on a Magic dock ( https://www.plugshare.com/location/230737 ) and it's much much slower :(
Pikes Peak Charging | Divide, CO | EV Station

A scenic location with a view of Pikes Peak. Shared Charging 62.5 KW max. From Scott, the owner: The stations are designed to distribute 62.5 KW, max, and they share a 3-phase 125 KW circuit. I am the only DCFC station in CORE's service area that is not owned by CORE. My peak demand charge is based on my busiest 15 minutes no matter the time of day. If I let a full 125 KW flow for 15 minutes, then my power bill STARTS at ~$1900. Please understand that I do not make money off of these stations, They are a gift to you. They are not here to drive traffic to Margaret's Munchies. They are there for you fellow EV drivers. I wish I could make them faster and less expensive, but I am doing the best that I can.

@malwareminigun @arigesher Even better will be NEVI chargers every 50 miles instead of paying over-inflated prices to charge slower than current generation chargers support.

@drdabbles @arigesher don't think NEVI is going to lower cost, just make available at all. Also unfortunately the places that really need every 50 miles like that (Wyoming, Dakotas, etc.) are not getting it anytime soon because the reason nothing is there is that nothing is there.

Like that stretch of i90 with billboards for > 50 miles in each direction of Wall going "we have a drug store"

On the plus side pretty much every ev does a lot more then 50 miles so this isn't the end of the world

@arigesher (Of course, how much energy the vehicle actually uses is a factor too. The 'Out of Spec' channel runs a test where they give an EV 15 minutes to charge from 10%, then measure how long it can drive before it gets back to 10%, which is a great proxy for what actual road tripping is like. Way out in front are Taycan and Lucid who charge really fast and are extremely efficient, respectively, followed by most of the EGMP cars, followed by Tesla, followed by everyone else

@malwareminigun my poor R1T tops out at 200kW and β€œonly” gets 70 mpge…

and yet, it’s lovely!

@arigesher *Rivian Drool*

R3 looks even more 80s than my car and I love it

@malwareminigun I’m dreaming about an R3x as a run-about.
@arigesher @malwareminigun something might be up with yours, mine charges faster than that by a good amount. I've seen over 250 on mine just on basic EA chargers. πŸ€”
@drdabbles @arigesher something seems off because doing that at Rivian nominal pack voltage of 460V would require 543A, and CCS is only rated to 500A. That is indeed less than 10% over so there might be tolerances going on here but that result is certainly unexpected...
@drdabbles @arigesher should do somewhere in the 230kW range (460V@500A)
Out of Spec 10% Challenge - Google Drive

@arigesher
It's kinda funny that my Tesla owning friend and I do one annual road trip to the same place every year, and weve never been able to take his car because there are no Tesla chargers on the route at all (and are very few chargers in general.)

Someday, maybe. Considering the state of Tesla and them laying off the supercharger staff, I'm not holding my breath

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye

@arigesher
That said, if you have a multi car family like a lot of Americans, an EV is a fucking great 2nd car. Low maintenance cost, great resale value, super effective for short trips.

Tesla owning friend bought his pretty much exclusively because his work provides chargers as a perk, so his commutes and all the trips to the store and kid drop-offs and whatnot essentially have zero fuel cost.

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye

@mav I don't commute. At all. I average about 2500 miles a year.

I also drive an old car instead of throwing mine away and upgrading every few years, which is also horrible for the environment.

@ShredderFeeder me too on both counts, we should be friends :)

My car is 16 years old this year, and cars are so expensive now that it's really quite a bit more practical to do maintenance and repair than it used to be; not only is throwing your car out and getting a new one terrible for the environment, but it's also not even effective from a sociopathic capitalist point of view.

@mav Well, car manufacturers would disagree, their whole business model depends on people buying a new car every 3-4 years.

@jannem @CosmicTraveler @mav @ShredderFeeder @mhoye chargers are being built out at a good clip. I’ve been able to do roadtrips in California in a Rivian R1T (so no Tesla chargers).

I guess it depends on where you live for now - a temporary problem.

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye ok don’t buy one. Or rent your vacation vehicle. Your singular use case represents a tiny fraction of what people do daily with their cars.
@aardvark @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye Not a bad option, but the nearest rental place is 20 miles from me. (I'm a little rural ;-) )

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye I do this every month, and regularly need to round trip Seattle to Portland without time to charge. Between that and not having access to a charger at my house or any other location, and it's a completely unavailable solution for me.

That said, I recognize I'm in the vast minority here. Essentially everyone in America should be able to do EVs already even without better infrastructure.

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye you literallu can do it nowadays. I did it 400 miles just this weekend with a single food break and charge left at the end.
@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye you could have an electric for the 49 weeks where you do short trip and rent a really nice car with the saved money to go to the beach for the remaining 2 weeks

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye you can't do that in a normal car either. 530 miles in 6 hours is an average of 88 mph, not accounting for acceleration or deceleration or your gas stop.

If half of your annual mileage is 1,060, you don't need to own a car.

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye
I, too, enjoy destroying the environment much more than taking a 30 minute coffee break.
@DasSkelett @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye cars contribute a small fraction to eco destruction, unless you include manufacturing process.

@ShredderFeeder

@mhoye @CosmicTraveler @jannem while many people do trips like that doctors and highway safety engineers tell you not to. Take longes breaks for health and safety.

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye I think this argument has a few holes. I have a pickup truck, but I don't drive it every day. I drive it when I need to haul something. The rest of the time I'm driving something much more efficient.

Maybe it feels wasteful and really expensive to have one vehicle as a commuter and another just for vacations. But if you're putting literally half of your yearly mileage on during that vacation, both are going to last roughly twice as long.

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye My Ioniq 5 can do that in about 6.5 hours. Close enough. And I probably save that half an hour from not needing to go to gas stations most of the time, needing less overall maintenance, etc.

I'm not saying EVs are for everyone, certainly not right now, and I'm not going to rip on someone for getting a reasonable gas car. But saying you can't road trip EVs these days requires putting one's head extremely far in the sand

@ShredderFeeder
You are a dangerous driver and sound not be allowed to drive.

Taking regular breaks is necessary to be able to keep your focus.

If electric cars force people like you to stop and rest, that alone will make roads safer.

@jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye

@iinavpov my last car accident was 1989 and it wasn't my fault. (Someone hydroplaned into me in a storm in southern California - fuckers don't understand rain at all).

I'll put my driving record up against just about anyone else's

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye That's 88 mph avg. That seems... aggressive. One 10 minute break. You must be young. For a sub 150 mile-per-day daily driver, electric is totally there. If you live in a warmer area maybe even push that to 200 miles per day. Zero hassle, just plug it in when you get home. GM had a deal for the last year where they would install the charger for $0. I got in on it. Long run from the back of the house to the garage. Zero money (GM paid $1400). No reason to do 50A, 30A or 40A is fine for an overnight charge. If your service feed is undersized and maxed out, then you can't afford the upgrade. Maybe it's not for you.
@DeweyOxberger If you've ever driving I95 South through North and South carolina, you'd know that if you're not doing 90 you're getting run over.
@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye hmm interesting. So going 90.85miles/h on average for 5.833hours. Sounds about right 🀭
@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye So lets play that game: The tesla model Y will have give you a distance of 310miles on a full charge when going avg 70mi/h (I like to follow the speed limits on the highway). A 15 min charge gives me another 165miles. 20 mins would give me 210miles and 25mins would take that to 250 miles.
So following the speed limits and having a 25mins break to take a piss and get a sandwich would take me to the beach in sane time
@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye I just did a road trip from Galway to Copenhagen and back in an EV. It was very enjoyable. I did a 900km leg of it in 12 hours. This included a half hour detour on surface roads and about 1.5 hours for a ferry (half hour wait, one hour transit). I stopped three times to charge and get breakfast, lunch and dinner. For the latter two I had to rush to finish food because charging was faster.

@lyda @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye I wonder what it would take to put EV chargers on the ferries. That would at least be a good use of time.

You should read some articles on lithium mining and it's impacts on the environment before you declare EV's "clean energy"

@lyda @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye

Strip-mining is every bit as bad as oil at destroying the planet...

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye a few things.

First, most lithium isn't strip mined.

Second, we "mined" 100,000 tons of lithium in 2023. We "mined" 5,000,000,000 tons of oil in 2023 (at least).

Third, batteries can (and are) recycled. It's likely that by the 2060s very little lithium will need to be mined.

Fourth, EVs are starting to come out with sodium batteries.

Lastly, charging on ferries isn't ideal until they use wind power (and regen from propellers).

@lyda @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye Sodium batteries are a step in the right direction.. Chinese have been building them for a while now, but Americans like mining shit.

I'm just glad that I'll be long dead before my Mustang becomes illegal.

There's no replacement for displacement.

@lyda As of 2017, most lithium comes from australia, where it is in fact strip-mined. The brine-pools that it's extracted from in chile (now the #2 producer) does horrible things to an area's water table. Same goes for Sodium-ION batteries. Takes thousands of cubic hectares of water to generate a usable amount of salt.

There is NO element that can be extracted from the earth that doesn't damage it.

We need Cold-Fusion, Anti-Matter, or another produce-on-demand power-source before we stop destroying the planet... and the mass-production of both Cold Fusion (Production of heavy-water) and Matter/Anti-Matter reaction (production of anti-matter itself) are still decades off because we're wasting all of our focus on stupid batteries that are just as bad for the environment as the oil they replace.

@ShredderFeeder so again, 5,000,000,000 tons of oil extracted annually; 100,000 tons of lithium. The former isn't recycled. The latter is reused and recycled.

@ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye It turns out that in order to make the planet a little bit less shitty than we're currently doing, some small behavioral changes might have to be made.

And what the hell are you doing going 90 MPH for 6 hours straight?