Mastodawn

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective

I’ll be tagging the rest again so you can mute it if you want to, but I just want to make sure that everybody understands how much the results of the Dutch elections are going to suck for everyone who is not a white cis male.

This is our Trump. Our ‘Netherlands First’ and ‘Make Holland Great Again’. If this man, Geert Wilders, gets to rule, everything that's important will actively get worse, everything that needs swift action will get put on the back burner.

Trans folks? Fucked. Muslims? Fucked. Climate action? Fucked.

All because a refugee forgot where she came from, and went all in on her quest for power.

This really sucks.

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

If you want some background on where we're at right now, check out the English-language coverage I have linked to here;

https://ngmx.com/@sindarina/111456515682317309

The main difference being that he’s now at 37 seats total, which means an increase from the exit polls.

This is not the definitive result, and most of the districts counted so far skew right, while we're still waiting for final counts in the bigger cities, which tend to skew left.

But it sucks either way. Wilders now gets to have the first shot at putting together a coalition, and whether he’ll succeed wholly depends on whether other right wing parties will say yes.

2/ 🧵

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective (@[email protected])

In case you want to follow along, there’s now plenty of English-language coverage of ‘Dutch Trump’; https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/pvv-big-winner-in-the-nos-exit-poll-with-35-seats-in-parliament/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/22/netherlands-dutch-general-election-vote-result-exit-poll-prime-minister-government-live-latest-result https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231122-wilders-firebrand-dutch-trump-finally-wins-big And of course all the other far right assholes are falling over themselves to congratulate ours 🙄 #NLpol 66/ 🧵

NGMX

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

And there's a pretty significant chance that they will indeed want to govern with him. A three-party coalition of PVV, VVD, and NSC already has enough seats for a majority in the House, and adding BBB to the mix would give them a decent chunk of the Senate, too.

Which means that whether Wilders gets to rule mostly depends on assholes with similar agendas thinking this is one bridge too far for them 😒

Right now I would be wholly unsurprised if the VVD ditched Yesilgöz if she doesn't want to cooperate, and went whole hog. This is, after all, the party of Klaas Dijkhoff and Stef Blok.

3/ 🧵

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

Just watch how both VVD and NSC will, just like BBB already has, pull some sort of "we cannot ignore the will of this many voters” excuse to unexpectedly find it within themselves to find a 'compromise' that works for them, when it's really just them giving in to what they were all along.

I hope the unlikely will happen, but even if it balances out a bit more than it looks like right now, once the final results are known, this still means that a significant chunk of Dutch voters looked at the lies peddled by the right, compared it with actual problem solving on the left, and went “You know what? We'll take the lies.”

4/ 🧵

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

Don't fall for the frame that this is somehow the working class voter being misled by politicians, assisted by the media, something that could be fixed if we just had done more to educate them about the truth, by the way.

While there certainly are voters who fell for the 'a milder Wilders’ act, even those people went for it because they feel they deserve a country in which they can be bigoted assholes without being confronted about it.

They want to make racist, sexist, and -phobic jokes. They want to run around in blackface. They want to shit on the Other and bond with their peers over it, instead of being excluded.

5/ 🧵

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

THAT is the promise; to restore the times when they could be white as fuck and not get in trouble for it. An end to 'woke ideology’ and ‘cancel culture’.

Or, in Dutch; ze willen weer potenrammen. Ze willen weer jodenkoeken en negerzoenen. Wees weer een echte vent!

The appeal is whiteness for whites only. It is toxic masculinity, and taking without consent.

That is what this is about. It's only a good deal later that some of them realise that their problems aren't being solved, and that blaming the Other isn't helping.

And that is true in all strata of society, not just the working class.

6/ 🧵

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

Oh, and by the way, little tidbit that I keep forgetting about; Geert Wilders is his party, and his party is him. He is the only member of it, and rules supreme.

He wants to abolish the first article of the Dutch constitution, which deals with equality before the law, and prohibits discrimination.

This is the guy who came up with the ‘Polenmeldpunt’, a hotline for reporting supposed misbehaviour by Eastern European workers and migrants, and the ‘kopvoddentaks’ (head rag tax);

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_rag_tax

And he's been at this for almost 20 years now.

7/ 🧵

Head rag tax - Wikipedia

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

Quick bit of free analysis for Lilian Marijnissen, who seems unsure why the Socialist Party lost again under her leadership; it's because you once again tried to appeal to white workers who would rather vote for Wilders instead, whenever they get an opening.

That, much more than any sort of strategic vote, it why you lost. There is no room for a PVV Lite on the left when the real deal can be had on the right.

Stop trying to horseshoe your way into it.

8/ 🧵

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

I feel sorry for the Moroccan-Dutch folks who have to put up with the “My friends and colleagues are all Moroccan-Dutch. I am not voting against them, but for myself. I just want an affordable home and lower prices.” type of nonsense on display in this regional news article that puts the white sentiment of PVV voters front and center.

You had a ton of options if affordable housing and healthcare was your prime concern. Yet you picked the most racist islamophobe possible 🙄

Journalist doesn't challenge it, of course, they're just out there in some random town to get a few choice quotes 😒

https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/328140/ook-in-oostzaan-behaalt-pvv-grote-overwinning-eindelijk-naar-ons-geluisterd

9/ 🧵

Ook in Oostzaan behaalt PVV grote overwinning: "Eindelijk naar ons geluisterd"

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

Meanwhile, Omtzigt is still avoiding the question of whether he will cooperate with Wilders, spouting some vague nonsense about oaths to uphold the constitution and whatnot, claiming that, with 20 seats, Nationaal Socialistisch Contract cannot say 'no' right away.

Yet Timmermans did right away, removing any and all doubt of a coalition that has both PVV and GroenLinks/PvdA in it.

Funny how that works, eh? 🤔

https://nos.nl/collectie/13958/liveblog/2498920-vvd-initiatief-ligt-bij-pvv-en-nsc-omtzigt-geeft-nog-geen-uitsluitsel-over-pvv#UPDATE-container-73615695

10/ 🧵

Demonstraties in Utrecht en Amsterdam vanwege winst PVV

Gisteren waren de Tweede Kamerverkiezingen. Volg alles vandaag in ons liveblog.

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

Another interesting Omtzigt factoid that I just learned about; apparently he, along with some of his top folks, voted in favour of the 'gedoogconstructie’ deal that VVD and CDA made with Wilders for the first Rutte cabinet, back when Omtzigt was still a member of the CDA.

It's kind of nauseating to see Omtzigt salivating over the prospects of governing with Wilders, all because the man who shit on everything for the past two decades promised not to shit on him this time 🙄

The only way you can afford to be that naive is when your goals align with fash trash like this 😒

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/23/dat-wilders-zei-dat-hij-van-plan-is-zich-aan-de-grondwet-te-houden-maakte-omtzigt-heel-blij-a4182098

11/ 🧵

Dat Wilders zei dat hij ‘van plan’ is zich aan de Grondwet te houden, maakte Omtzigt ‘heel blij’

Tweede Kamer: De NSC-kiezers zien het wel zitten, een samenwerking met de PVV, maar de partij heeft sinds kort ook leden. Of zij ook zo enthousiast zijn is de vraag.

NRC

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

This is how much of a circus this is; BBB arriving by tractor, and Kees van der fucking Staaij, former leader of the far right fundamentalist christian SGP, tipped as the 'verkenner’?! 😂

What a bunch of fucking clowns, sheesh. I bet Claas was very happy to provide enough matching tractors for this marketing stunt by the agribusiness party.

It would be funny if this wasn't about actual governance that impacts the entire country 😒

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/party-leaders-meet-in-the-hague-as-cabinet-making-process-starts/

12/ 🧵

Party leaders meet in The Hague as cabinet-making process starts - DutchNews.nl

Party leaders are meeting parliamentary chairwoman Vera Bergkamp on Friday morning to start the formation process – the negotiations that should result in a new coalition government. The meeting, at 10.30 in parliament, will be used to assign a verkenner – the person who will kick start the talks to assess what parties could form possible coalitions. Geert Wilders, as leader of the biggest party, has the biggest say in who this should be. Kees van der Staaij, the former leader of...

DutchNews.nl

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

By the way, if you see images of Geert Wilders with his cats, remember that this is a trick straight from the Nazi playbook.

13/ 🧵

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

Meanwhile, the circus continues, with a PVV senator who used to describe the Dutch parliament as 'fake’ being accepted as 'verkenner’, the person whose job it is to scout for possible coalitions by talking with all party leaders.

The Dutch house leader, Vera Bergkamp, sees no problem with this, and considers him to have 'sufficient distance’ 🙄

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/pvv-draagt-senator-gom-van-strien-voor-als-verkenner-a4182157

Oh, and VVD leader Yesilgöz is backpedaling further, now saying that the VVD will not be part of any coalition;

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/vvds-yesilgoz-says-no-but-will-prop-up-a-wilders-led-cabinet/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/outgoing-netherlands-pms-party-rules-out-geert-wilders-coalition

14/ 🧵

PVV draagt senator Gom van Strien voor als verkenner

De PVV heeft PVV-senator Gom van Strien aangewezen als verkenner. Dat heeft Kamervoorzittter Vera Bergkamp zojuist gezegd. Alle lijsttrekkers hebben met de voordracht ingestemd, behalve Stephan van Baarle van Denk. „Ik ben blij dat we een verkenner hebben waar zeer groot draagvlak voor is”, zei Bergkamp. Ze zegt dat Van Strien ook bereid is om verkenner te worden, en dat ze later op vrijdag een…

NRC

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

Here's some English-language analysis putting this into context among the rest of these fuckers across Europe;

"Geert Wilders’ shock victory in the Dutch general election confirms the upward trajectory of Europe’s populist and far-right parties, which – with the occasional setback – are continuing their steady march into the mainstream.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/geert-wilders-victory-confirms-upward-trajectory-of-far-right-in-europe

#DontPayTheGuardian #NLpol

15/ 🧵

Geert Wilders’ victory confirms upward trajectory of far right in Europe

Dutch general election results show how populist and far-right parties are advancing into political mainstream

The Guardian

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

Oh, and if you see names like ‘Henk' and ‘Ingrid’ used in coverage of Dutch politics, they are the supposed 'regular folks’, which basically means you should think of them as the Chads, Beckies, and Karens you already know from elsewhere.

‘Decent' white folks who are appalled that you would think of them as racist, but who will happily vote racists into power.

The arch-conservative asshole who just got the coalition scout job refers to them unironically as the victims of ‘climate hysteria’, immigrants, and so forth.

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/verkenner-gom-van-strien-zeer-rechts-in-de-leer-a4182213

16/ 🧵

Kundig, intelligent en oerconservatief: zo omschrijven mensen die Gom van Strien kennen, de voorgedragen nieuwe verkenner

Verkenningsfase: Eerste Kamerlid Gom van Strien (PVV) kan aan de slag als verkenner. Mensen die hem kennen omschrijven de politicus als kundig, intelligent en oerconservatief. Voor verandering, zei hij ooit, zijn „geen theedrinkende wauwelaars maar PVV’ers nodig”.

NRC

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

Oh, and while we're on the topic of ecofascists in the PVV, enter Dion Graus, the asshole who votes in favour of proposals dealing with animal rights, but is known as an abuser of women.

Wilders is still fine with him being in the party, while the BBB, the agribusiness marketing party, is flagging his animal rights record as a potential problem for a coalition with the PVV, because protecting animals is bad for business;

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/bbb-wil-best-met-pvv-maar-dan-wel-zonder-dat-zielige-dieren-beleid-a4182202

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dion_Graus

17/ 🧵

BBB wil best met PVV, maar dan wel zonder dat zielige-dieren-beleid: ‘Dat is echt puur emotie’

Formatiegesprekken: Hoewel de BBB veel kiezers verloor aan de PVV, staat de partij van Caroline van der Plas open voor een coalitie. Wel moet de PVV dan stoppen met moties die boeren dwarszitten. „Ze stemmen soms puur voor moties omdat Dion Graus het zielig vindt voor de kippen.”

NRC

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

"Across the street, Hasan Jakh, a recently arrived immigrant from Turkey, confessed he had voted for Wilders, driven by his frustration over the lack of affordable housing. 'It's stupid that he's so Islamophobic,' he said. ‘But for the rest, he's great.'"

Meanwhile, a reminder that some Muslims would rather vote for a rabidly pro-Israeli apartheid asshole who openly hates them than for a party that would actually solve that housing problem, but also supports a woman's right to choose, LGBTQI+ rights, and so forth.

We see you, and your excuses 🙄

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/geert-wilders-dutch-election-win-rotterdam-scary

#NLpol
#DontPayTheGuardian

18/ 🧵

‘It’s scary’: residents in Rotterdam reflect on Geert Wilders’ election win

Wilders’ far-right party won the most seats in Dutch election, though many in this diverse city say they can understand why

The Guardian

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 25, 2023

By the way, if you think all of this sounds bad, it’s worse. I just finished listening to a podcast episode in which someone made a convincing argument that Wilders will basically make Omtzigt an offer he cannot refuse, simply by giving him everything he wants.

Wilders loses nothing, with that move, and Omtzigt will be tickled pink. Until the shit hits the fan, and Omtzigt finds out he’s been the useful dupe all along.

Add BBB, who are eager as fuck, add VVD in a support role, and Wilders gets to play the game from the rear, masking his weaknesses, by having the others take the fall when it inevitably blows up.

19/ 🧵

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 25, 2023

I’m poking at the NOS election results app to look at voter movements; people who did one thing in 2021, and now did something else, including those who didn't vote then, and did now, or vice versa.

The interesting thing about the Animal Party (PvdD) vote is that the 'strategic vote’ was much less impactful than some of their fans seem to think; instead of their loss being explained by people voting for GroenLinks/PvdA, their biggest loss (25%) was people who just didn't vote this time, and more voters went to PVV and NSC (8% each, 16% combined) than to GroenLinks/PvdA (14%).

https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2023/

20/ 🧵

NOS - Uitslagen Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2023

Alle uitslagen van de Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2023 op een rij

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 25, 2023

Heck, they're even trading voters with Thierry Baudet's party, FvD, for some reason, and with JA21, one of the FvD offshoots. I guess they still haven't rooted out the ecofascists in their midst 😒

The SP vote tells a similar story, by the way; more of their 2021 voters went to PVV (16%) and NSC (16%), or one-third total, than went to GroenLinks/PvdA (14%).

The changes for BIJ1 are difficult to spot in this data, because they were such a small party, but it looks like 2% of the GroenLinks/PvdA vote came from there, and 6% of the PvdD vote.

(Edited because percentages led to faulty assumptions on my part)

21/ 🧵

webhat Nov 24, 2023

@sindarina I never understand people who vote against their own best interests.

Alex@rtnVFRmedia Suffolk UK Nov 24, 2023

@sindarina when I first learned Dutch and was hanging around on various forums associated with various music scenes (ranging from trance and gabba to piratenhits) I was disappointed by the amount of casual sexism and racism everywhere - although I wouldn't say it was any worse than here in the UK, and we saw what that led Britain to (thankfully Nexit seems fairly unlikely)

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

@vfrmedia Ik help het je hopen 🤞🏻😄

Alex@rtnVFRmedia Suffolk UK Nov 24, 2023

@sindarina Ik hoop dat het Nederlandse volk leert van onze grote fout (in de VK staan nu lege schappen in de supermarkt, infrastructuur die uit elkaar valt en overal ellende)

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 24, 2023

@vfrmedia Yeah, Brexit was a disaster 😒

Béranger Enselme Nov 24, 2023

@sindarina Yep, the French fascist Marine Le Pen uses the same trick

Barry Parr Nov 24, 2023

@benselme @sindarina That cat is having none of it.

UrsuUrsula 🎶🎵🎶Nov 24, 2023

So ein sympathischer Typ. 🤯

Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈Nov 23, 2023

@sindarina it's all sounding very Brexit, the same poor excuses from voters who feel some shame now

Eve, Go Listen to Dead Channel Sky Nov 23, 2023

@sindarina Fuck I'm sorry

MJ Ray Nov 23, 2023

@sindarina if he's the only party member, who's taking the other 30ish seats?

Soy Nov 23, 2023

@mjr @sindarina other people, but the party itself is ruled by himself. The other people are not members. In the netherlands every political party is also an organization with rules and other members, votes etc. PVV a party and a 1 member organization.

The party provides people who take the seats they don't have to be members of the organization (which in all other cases they are). We also don't vote on parties technically but for people from parties.

Soy Nov 23, 2023

@mjr @sindarina The latter gives rise to the 1 man parties (also without organizations behind them) when people during the course of the years split off from the main party while remaining in parlement. As they personally have the seat.

MJ Ray Nov 23, 2023

@Soyweiser @sindarina well, that seems massively antidemocratic. It seems surprising and absurd that antidemocratic parties can stand in democratic elections.

Soy Nov 23, 2023

@mjr @sindarina it isn't totally strange that this kind of thing can happen, as organizations need to start somewhere so you cannot really ban this without creating risks for creating new organizations. It is however really strange that he keeps this up and it doesn't seem to be a problem for anybody. Do note that most Dutch people are not a member of a political party organization, only (according to: https://www.rug.nl/research/dnpp/themas/ledentallen/ledentallen-2023 ) about 375k people are.

Ledentallen Nederlandse politieke partijen per 1 januari 2023

Ledentallen Nederlandse politieke partijen per 1 januari 2023

Rijksuniversiteit Groningen

Soy Nov 23, 2023

@mjr @sindarina And I think a bigger problem than how his organization is ran is the issue that for a large % of Dutch people this (potential) lack of influence and lack of checks and balances on the party they vote for and the authoritarian who runs it is no problem.

Dave Bell Nov 23, 2023

@mjr @sindarina

He looks to be manipulating the Dutch rules. It would be very easy to mistake for a con game.

qrazi Nov 23, 2023

@mjr @sindarina even though Dutch, that little detail was new to me too (or I forgot). Wikipedia has a pretty good summary though https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_for_Freedom

Party for Freedom - Wikipedia

Jette Nov 23, 2023

@sindarina Netherlands version of Frogface Farage?

MJ Ray Nov 23, 2023

@sindarina so what can opponents do?

Donaupiratin Nov 23, 2023

@sindarina Depressing reading, but thank you for writing it anyway.

Martijn Vos Nov 24, 2023

@sindarina VVD and NSC have both stated they don't want to govern with PVV, and I hope they stick with that. One reason why they might, is exactly because the PVV is bigger; it would make Geert Wilders prime minister, and he would represent the country in the EU and elsewhere.

And Geert Wilders is extremely anti-EU. He wants NL to leave the EU, leave the Euro, and leave NATO. That is completely unacceptable to the other parties. Even if they might be willing to compromise with him on immigration, they won't compromise with him on EU membership, and having someone so anti-EU lead their government might be unthinkable to them. This coalition would be more palatable if the PVV was smaller.

I don't know if that's how they think, but it's what I'm hoping for.

Rant_ifa 🖤❤️ hope Rant_ifa Nov 23, 2023

@sindarina
🌹❤️

webhat Nov 23, 2023

@sindarina I don't think it's just Yesilgöz personally who is to blame, although I think she certainly contributed. I have a horrible feeling that part of the people who left the VVD to vote for PVV didn't vote for VVD because it's being led by someone who is proof that immigration and taking in refugees works.

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective Nov 23, 2023

@webhat No, it's not just her, but she fronted it, went along with it, decided it was an acceptable trade-off.

Without that, it wouldn't have worked nearly as well.

kravietz 🦇Nov 24, 2023

Climate action? Fucked.

I’m mixed on this one, because while he proposes to keep oil and gas extraction in North Sea, he also wants to build a number of new nuclear power plants for Netherlands. Which, along with the existing capacity in wind and solar would allow to get rid fossil fuels from electricity generation at all. So at least in this aspect he’s much better for climate than say German Greens, who effectively switched their country back to coal.

https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/NL

Live 24/7 CO₂ emissions of electricity consumption

Electricity Maps is a live 24/7 visualization of where your electricity comes from and how much CO2 was emitted to produce it.

Luna Dragofelis ΘΔ moved to @[email protected]Nov 24, 2023

@sindarina Good thread.

I have a complaint about it that's not about the content itself. You didn't use a subject line/CW, which is a recommended thing to do for political issues.

Your heart seems to have been in the right place with you adding a hashtag to allow filtering, but that requires the reader to set up the filter in advance, and would mute every post about the topic. A subject line allows the reader to make a decision before reading.

Paranoid Factoid Nov 24, 2023

@sindarina Fantastic thread, thank you!

NotMaddie!Nov 24, 2023

@sindarina Sorry to hear this, you are in for a rocky ride. You might find long time friends you can’t be with anymore, communities torn apart. It’s rough. Sending you strength.

Colin Cogle 🔵Nov 25, 2023

@sindarina Speaking from an American perspective, the world is sick of the do-nothing pro-capitalist center-left. This neofascism is far worse, in my opinion, but the far-right is great at stoking reactionary fear and playing off of people’s rightful unhappiness and dissatisfaction with the whole political system.

The Netherlands joins Argentina, the United States (2017-2021), and Brazil (formerly); France worries us every presidential election cycle.