I’ll be tagging the rest again so you can mute it if you want to, but I just want to make sure that everybody understands how much the results of the Dutch elections are going to suck for everyone who is not a white cis male.

This is our Trump. Our ‘Netherlands First’ and ‘Make Holland Great Again’. If this man, Geert Wilders, gets to rule, everything that's important will actively get worse, everything that needs swift action will get put on the back burner.

Trans folks? Fucked. Muslims? Fucked. Climate action? Fucked.

All because a refugee forgot where she came from, and went all in on her quest for power.

This really sucks.

If you want some background on where we're at right now, check out the English-language coverage I have linked to here;

https://ngmx.com/@sindarina/111456515682317309

The main difference being that he’s now at 37 seats total, which means an increase from the exit polls.

This is not the definitive result, and most of the districts counted so far skew right, while we're still waiting for final counts in the bigger cities, which tend to skew left.

But it sucks either way. Wilders now gets to have the first shot at putting together a coalition, and whether he’ll succeed wholly depends on whether other right wing parties will say yes.

#NLpol

2/ 🧵

Sindarina, Edge Case Detective (@[email protected])

In case you want to follow along, there’s now plenty of English-language coverage of ‘Dutch Trump’; https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/pvv-big-winner-in-the-nos-exit-poll-with-35-seats-in-parliament/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/nov/22/netherlands-dutch-general-election-vote-result-exit-poll-prime-minister-government-live-latest-result https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231122-wilders-firebrand-dutch-trump-finally-wins-big And of course all the other far right assholes are falling over themselves to congratulate ours 🙄 #NLpol 66/ 🧵

NGMX

And there's a pretty significant chance that they will indeed want to govern with him. A three-party coalition of PVV, VVD, and NSC already has enough seats for a majority in the House, and adding BBB to the mix would give them a decent chunk of the Senate, too.

Which means that whether Wilders gets to rule mostly depends on assholes with similar agendas thinking this is one bridge too far for them 😒

Right now I would be wholly unsurprised if the VVD ditched Yesilgöz if she doesn't want to cooperate, and went whole hog. This is, after all, the party of Klaas Dijkhoff and Stef Blok.

#NLpol

3/ 🧵

Just watch how both VVD and NSC will, just like BBB already has, pull some sort of "we cannot ignore the will of this many voters” excuse to unexpectedly find it within themselves to find a 'compromise' that works for them, when it's really just them giving in to what they were all along.

I hope the unlikely will happen, but even if it balances out a bit more than it looks like right now, once the final results are known, this still means that a significant chunk of Dutch voters looked at the lies peddled by the right, compared it with actual problem solving on the left, and went “You know what? We'll take the lies.”

#NLpol

4/ 🧵

Don't fall for the frame that this is somehow the working class voter being misled by politicians, assisted by the media, something that could be fixed if we just had done more to educate them about the truth, by the way.

While there certainly are voters who fell for the 'a milder Wilders’ act, even those people went for it because they feel they deserve a country in which they can be bigoted assholes without being confronted about it.

They want to make racist, sexist, and -phobic jokes. They want to run around in blackface. They want to shit on the Other and bond with their peers over it, instead of being excluded.

#NLpol

5/ 🧵

THAT is the promise; to restore the times when they could be white as fuck and not get in trouble for it. An end to 'woke ideology’ and ‘cancel culture’.

Or, in Dutch; ze willen weer potenrammen. Ze willen weer jodenkoeken en negerzoenen. Wees weer een echte vent!

The appeal is whiteness for whites only. It is toxic masculinity, and taking without consent.

That is what this is about. It's only a good deal later that some of them realise that their problems aren't being solved, and that blaming the Other isn't helping.

And that is true in all strata of society, not just the working class.

#NLpol

6/ 🧵

Oh, and by the way, little tidbit that I keep forgetting about; Geert Wilders is his party, and his party is him. He is the only member of it, and rules supreme.

He wants to abolish the first article of the Dutch constitution, which deals with equality before the law, and prohibits discrimination.

This is the guy who came up with the ‘Polenmeldpunt’, a hotline for reporting supposed misbehaviour by Eastern European workers and migrants, and the ‘kopvoddentaks’ (head rag tax);

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_rag_tax

And he's been at this for almost 20 years now.

#NLpol

7/ 🧵

Head rag tax - Wikipedia

Quick bit of free analysis for Lilian Marijnissen, who seems unsure why the Socialist Party lost again under her leadership; it's because you once again tried to appeal to white workers who would rather vote for Wilders instead, whenever they get an opening.

That, much more than any sort of strategic vote, it why you lost. There is no room for a PVV Lite on the left when the real deal can be had on the right.

Stop trying to horseshoe your way into it.

#NLpol

8/ 🧵

I feel sorry for the Moroccan-Dutch folks who have to put up with the “My friends and colleagues are all Moroccan-Dutch. I am not voting against them, but for myself. I just want an affordable home and lower prices.” type of nonsense on display in this regional news article that puts the white sentiment of PVV voters front and center.

You had a ton of options if affordable housing and healthcare was your prime concern. Yet you picked the most racist islamophobe possible 🙄

Journalist doesn't challenge it, of course, they're just out there in some random town to get a few choice quotes 😒

https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/328140/ook-in-oostzaan-behaalt-pvv-grote-overwinning-eindelijk-naar-ons-geluisterd

#NLpol

9/ 🧵

Ook in Oostzaan behaalt PVV grote overwinning: "Eindelijk naar ons geluisterd"

Meanwhile, Omtzigt is still avoiding the question of whether he will cooperate with Wilders, spouting some vague nonsense about oaths to uphold the constitution and whatnot, claiming that, with 20 seats, Nationaal Socialistisch Contract cannot say 'no' right away.

Yet Timmermans did right away, removing any and all doubt of a coalition that has both PVV and GroenLinks/PvdA in it.

Funny how that works, eh? 🤔

https://nos.nl/collectie/13958/liveblog/2498920-vvd-initiatief-ligt-bij-pvv-en-nsc-omtzigt-geeft-nog-geen-uitsluitsel-over-pvv#UPDATE-container-73615695

#NLpol

10/ 🧵

Demonstraties in Utrecht en Amsterdam vanwege winst PVV

Gisteren waren de Tweede Kamerverkiezingen. Volg alles vandaag in ons liveblog.

Another interesting Omtzigt factoid that I just learned about; apparently he, along with some of his top folks, voted in favour of the 'gedoogconstructie’ deal that VVD and CDA made with Wilders for the first Rutte cabinet, back when Omtzigt was still a member of the CDA.

It's kind of nauseating to see Omtzigt salivating over the prospects of governing with Wilders, all because the man who shit on everything for the past two decades promised not to shit on him this time 🙄

The only way you can afford to be that naive is when your goals align with fash trash like this 😒

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/23/dat-wilders-zei-dat-hij-van-plan-is-zich-aan-de-grondwet-te-houden-maakte-omtzigt-heel-blij-a4182098

#NLpol

11/ 🧵

Dat Wilders zei dat hij ‘van plan’ is zich aan de Grondwet te houden, maakte Omtzigt ‘heel blij’

Tweede Kamer: De NSC-kiezers zien het wel zitten, een samenwerking met de PVV, maar de partij heeft sinds kort ook leden. Of zij ook zo enthousiast zijn is de vraag.

NRC

This is how much of a circus this is; BBB arriving by tractor, and Kees van der fucking Staaij, former leader of the far right fundamentalist christian SGP, tipped as the 'verkenner’?! 😂

What a bunch of fucking clowns, sheesh. I bet Claas was very happy to provide enough matching tractors for this marketing stunt by the agribusiness party.

It would be funny if this wasn't about actual governance that impacts the entire country 😒

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/party-leaders-meet-in-the-hague-as-cabinet-making-process-starts/

#NLpol

12/ 🧵

Party leaders meet in The Hague as cabinet-making process starts - DutchNews.nl

Party leaders are meeting parliamentary chairwoman Vera Bergkamp on Friday morning to start the formation process – the negotiations that should result in a new coalition government.  The meeting, at 10.30 in parliament, will be used to assign a verkenner – the person who will kick start the talks to assess what parties could form possible coalitions. Geert Wilders, as leader of the biggest party, has the biggest say in who this should be.  Kees van der Staaij, the former leader of...

DutchNews.nl

By the way, if you see images of Geert Wilders with his cats, remember that this is a trick straight from the Nazi playbook.

#NLpol

13/ 🧵

Meanwhile, the circus continues, with a PVV senator who used to describe the Dutch parliament as 'fake’ being accepted as 'verkenner’, the person whose job it is to scout for possible coalitions by talking with all party leaders.

The Dutch house leader, Vera Bergkamp, sees no problem with this, and considers him to have 'sufficient distance’ 🙄

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/pvv-draagt-senator-gom-van-strien-voor-als-verkenner-a4182157

Oh, and VVD leader Yesilgöz is backpedaling further, now saying that the VVD will not be part of any coalition;

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/vvds-yesilgoz-says-no-but-will-prop-up-a-wilders-led-cabinet/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/outgoing-netherlands-pms-party-rules-out-geert-wilders-coalition

#NLpol

14/ 🧵

PVV draagt senator Gom van Strien voor als verkenner

De PVV heeft PVV-senator Gom van Strien aangewezen als verkenner. Dat heeft Kamervoorzittter Vera Bergkamp zojuist gezegd. Alle lijsttrekkers hebben met de voordracht ingestemd, behalve Stephan van Baarle van Denk. „Ik ben blij dat we een verkenner hebben waar zeer groot draagvlak voor is”, zei Bergkamp. Ze zegt dat Van Strien ook bereid is om verkenner te worden, en dat ze later op vrijdag een…

NRC

Here's some English-language analysis putting this into context among the rest of these fuckers across Europe;

"Geert Wilders’ shock victory in the Dutch general election confirms the upward trajectory of Europe’s populist and far-right parties, which – with the occasional setback – are continuing their steady march into the mainstream.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/geert-wilders-victory-confirms-upward-trajectory-of-far-right-in-europe

#DontPayTheGuardian #NLpol

15/ 🧵

Geert Wilders’ victory confirms upward trajectory of far right in Europe

Dutch general election results show how populist and far-right parties are advancing into political mainstream

The Guardian

Oh, and if you see names like ‘Henk' and ‘Ingrid’ used in coverage of Dutch politics, they are the supposed 'regular folks’, which basically means you should think of them as the Chads, Beckies, and Karens you already know from elsewhere.

‘Decent' white folks who are appalled that you would think of them as racist, but who will happily vote racists into power.

The arch-conservative asshole who just got the coalition scout job refers to them unironically as the victims of ‘climate hysteria’, immigrants, and so forth.

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/verkenner-gom-van-strien-zeer-rechts-in-de-leer-a4182213

#NLpol

16/ 🧵

Kundig, intelligent en oerconservatief: zo omschrijven mensen die Gom van Strien kennen, de voorgedragen nieuwe verkenner

Verkenningsfase: Eerste Kamerlid Gom van Strien (PVV) kan aan de slag als verkenner. Mensen die hem kennen omschrijven de politicus als kundig, intelligent en oerconservatief. Voor verandering, zei hij ooit, zijn „geen theedrinkende wauwelaars maar PVV’ers nodig”.

NRC

Oh, and while we're on the topic of ecofascists in the PVV, enter Dion Graus, the asshole who votes in favour of proposals dealing with animal rights, but is known as an abuser of women.

Wilders is still fine with him being in the party, while the BBB, the agribusiness marketing party, is flagging his animal rights record as a potential problem for a coalition with the PVV, because protecting animals is bad for business;

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/bbb-wil-best-met-pvv-maar-dan-wel-zonder-dat-zielige-dieren-beleid-a4182202

https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dion_Graus

#NLpol

17/ 🧵

BBB wil best met PVV, maar dan wel zonder dat zielige-dieren-beleid: ‘Dat is echt puur emotie’

Formatiegesprekken: Hoewel de BBB veel kiezers verloor aan de PVV, staat de partij van Caroline van der Plas open voor een coalitie. Wel moet de PVV dan stoppen met moties die boeren dwarszitten. „Ze stemmen soms puur voor moties omdat Dion Graus het zielig vindt voor de kippen.”

NRC

"Across the street, Hasan Jakh, a recently arrived immigrant from Turkey, confessed he had voted for Wilders, driven by his frustration over the lack of affordable housing. 'It's stupid that he's so Islamophobic,' he said. ‘But for the rest, he's great.'"

Meanwhile, a reminder that some Muslims would rather vote for a rabidly pro-Israeli apartheid asshole who openly hates them than for a party that would actually solve that housing problem, but also supports a woman's right to choose, LGBTQI+ rights, and so forth.

We see you, and your excuses 🙄

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/24/geert-wilders-dutch-election-win-rotterdam-scary

#NLpol
#DontPayTheGuardian

18/ 🧵

‘It’s scary’: residents in Rotterdam reflect on Geert Wilders’ election win

Wilders’ far-right party won the most seats in Dutch election, though many in this diverse city say they can understand why

The Guardian

By the way, if you think all of this sounds bad, it’s worse. I just finished listening to a podcast episode in which someone made a convincing argument that Wilders will basically make Omtzigt an offer he cannot refuse, simply by giving him everything he wants.

Wilders loses nothing, with that move, and Omtzigt will be tickled pink. Until the shit hits the fan, and Omtzigt finds out he’s been the useful dupe all along.

Add BBB, who are eager as fuck, add VVD in a support role, and Wilders gets to play the game from the rear, masking his weaknesses, by having the others take the fall when it inevitably blows up.

19/ 🧵

#NLpol

I’m poking at the NOS election results app to look at voter movements; people who did one thing in 2021, and now did something else, including those who didn't vote then, and did now, or vice versa.

The interesting thing about the Animal Party (PvdD) vote is that the 'strategic vote’ was much less impactful than some of their fans seem to think; instead of their loss being explained by people voting for GroenLinks/PvdA, their biggest loss (25%) was people who just didn't vote this time, and more voters went to PVV and NSC (8% each, 16% combined) than to GroenLinks/PvdA (14%).

https://app.nos.nl/nieuws/tk2023/

20/ 🧵

#NLpol

NOS - Uitslagen Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2023

Alle uitslagen van de Tweede Kamerverkiezingen 2023 op een rij

Heck, they're even trading voters with Thierry Baudet's party, FvD, for some reason, and with JA21, one of the FvD offshoots. I guess they still haven't rooted out the ecofascists in their midst 😒

The SP vote tells a similar story, by the way; more of their 2021 voters went to PVV (16%) and NSC (16%), or one-third total, than went to GroenLinks/PvdA (14%).

The changes for BIJ1 are difficult to spot in this data, because they were such a small party, but it looks like 2% of the GroenLinks/PvdA vote came from there, and 6% of the PvdD vote.

(Edited because percentages led to faulty assumptions on my part)

21/ 🧵

#NLpol

These voter movement graphs are based on a parallel poll performed by IPSOS, so if we want to draw conclusions about the impact of the strategic vote on BIJ1, we need to look at the actual voting data, which is also available further down on this page.

BIJ1 almost halved, going from 86.481 votes in 2021 to 43.887 this week, with 99,8% of the vote counted.

2% of the GroenLinks/PvdA vote would be around 32.400 votes, and 6% of the PvdD vote would be around 13.900 votes, which is more than the delta, but if the balance holds, it is not unlikely that about two-thirds of it was due to the 'strategic vote’ 🤔

22/ 🧵

#NLpol

Or, if the number of BIJ1 voters that went to back to the PvdD is any indication, BIJ1 lost their seat because they made an absolute hash of things in the past year or so, and voters just lost confidence due to the various internal conflicts, Sylvana Simons leaving, and so forth.

There’s no real way to tell based on the data that I have available, really, but I do hope they get another shot at it again in the future. Sylvana Simons was a valuable opposition voice, and we were better off with her there.

23/ 🧵

#NLpol

Speaking of which; any party which has been reported as cheering when the exit polls showed BIJ1 would disappear from the Dutch parliament, which I've heard about PVV, VVD, and NSC so far, should not be trusted 😒

Also, fuck any claims of any of these right-wing populist assholes being 'socio-economically left-wing’. Even if that were true under some definitions of ‘left-wing’ in the past, it is certainly not true today, under any sort of definition that includes a woman's right to choose, equal rights for all, and so forth 🚮

24/ 🧵

#NLpol

Meanwhile, NRC just published an article about Gom van Strien, the PVV senator who was just assigned the role of coalition scout, being involved in fraud and bribery that yielded about two million euro in dividend payments for a company in which Van Strien's wife, friend, and sister were shareholders.

Kind of unsurprising at this point, isn't it? 🙄

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/25/universiteit-deed-aangifte-tegen-pvv-senator-van-strien-vanwege-oplichting-a4182283

Update: A second article, with more detail. It's not a problem for Geert Wilders, of course.

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/26/pvv-senator-van-strien-deed-ook-zaken-met-zichzelf-a4182340

25/ 🧵

#NLpol

Universiteit deed aangifte tegen PVV-senator Van Strien vanwege oplichting

Verkenner: Tegen Gom van Strien is afgelopen voorjaar aangifte gedaan wegens oplichting en omkoping.

NRC

Linking to various bits of coverage, mostly so I can find it again later, and compare if and how it shifts in the coming months and years.

First, in Dutch, from NRC;

"De NPO heeft Wilders salonfähig gemaakt”

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/de-npo-heeft-wilders-salonfahig-gemaakt-a4182155

"Zelfonderzoek en in dialoog gaan met elkaar, dat is nu de opdracht”

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/25/zelfonderzoek-en-in-dialoog-gaan-met-elkaar-dat-is-nu-de-opdracht-a4182222

"De verkiezingswinst van Wilders is een test voor het politieke midden”

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/24/de-verkiezingswinst-van-wilders-is-een-test-voor-de-democratie-a4182230

"De rechtse kiezer, óók die van VVD, switchte op het laatst massaal naar Wilders en bezorgde de PVV de grote winst”

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/25/de-rechtse-kiezer-ook-die-van-vvd-switchte-op-het-laatst-massaal-naar-wilders-en-bezorgde-de-pvv-de-grote-winst-a4182241

26/ 🧵

#NLpol

Column | De NPO heeft Wilders salonfähig gemaakt

Column: Lieke Marsman

NRC

Continued from the previous post;

"Hoe de PVV deze week niet alleen groter, maar ook breder werd”

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/11/25/hoe-de-pvv-deze-week-niet-alleen-groter-maar-ook-breder-werd-a4182245

"Hoe de VVD de rode loper uitrolde voor Wilders’ enorme winst”

https://stukroodvlees.nl/hoe-de-vvd-de-rode-loper-uitrolde-voor-wilders-enorme-winst/

It's the usual bullshit. The myth of a political center when it's right-wing views that are mainstream. A call for self-reflection that very weakly hints at equal rights, rule of law, and so forth, but still completely manages to miss the mark when it comes to any sort of actual dealing with white supremacy, racism, and our colonial past.

And somehow we're still surprised that Wilders has broad appeal?!

27/ 🧵

#NLpol

Hoe de PVV deze week niet alleen groter, maar ook breder werd

PVV-kiezers: Wie PVV-kiezers inschat als overwegend oud, wit, boos en mannelijk zit ernaast. Onderzoek laat zien dat Wilders nu veel groepen aanspreekt. „Omdat Nederland bij hem éérst komt.”

NRC

Meanwhile, while our local media are hemming and hawing about whether Wilders and the PVV can be classified as 'far right’, foreign media is not having any of the denial.

Some English-language coverage;

"Wilders’ win means giving a medal to the bully”

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/wilders-win-means-giving-a-medal-to-the-bully/

“Wilders’ win: what it means for NL and what happens next”

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/wilders-win-what-it-means-for-nl-and-what-happens-next/

"Far right’s Geert Wilders seals shock win in Dutch election after years on political fringe”

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20231125-far-right-s-geert-wilders-seals-shock-win-in-dutch-election-after-years-on-political-fringe

"Geert Wilders vows to become Dutch PM by compromising with other parties”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/25/geert-wilders-vows-to-become-dutch-pm-by-compromising-with-other-parties

28/ 🧵

#NLpol

Wilders' win means giving a medal to the bully - DutchNews.nl

Geert Wilders’s PVV undeniably owned the Dutch elections. The left is worried but things may not look so bad once the dust has settled. What is more concerning is that millions of people are systematically condoning the reprehensible behaviour of Wilders and company, writes independent journalist Chris Klomp. The anxiety among left-wing voters and minorities is palpable. The overwhelming consensus is that a punishing wind is blowing across the Netherlands. We have been nurturing our very own Donald Trump and...

DutchNews.nl

@sindarina urgh, I might as well not have voted. I don't see ranked choice voting happening any time soon, sadly.

(that probably wouldn't make sense for TK without... more changes either)

@barometz Nuh-uh, a vote is never wasted, unless you vote for the Pirate Party 😏
@sindarina I never understand people who vote against their own best interests.
@sindarina when I first learned Dutch and was hanging around on various forums associated with various music scenes (ranging from trance and gabba to piratenhits) I was disappointed by the amount of casual sexism and racism everywhere - although I wouldn't say it was any worse than here in the UK, and we saw what that led Britain to (thankfully Nexit seems fairly unlikely)
@vfrmedia Ik help het je hopen 🤞🏻😄
@sindarina Ik hoop dat het Nederlandse volk leert van onze grote fout (in de VK staan nu lege schappen in de supermarkt, infrastructuur die uit elkaar valt en overal ellende)
@sindarina Yep, the French fascist Marine Le Pen uses the same trick
@benselme @sindarina That cat is having none of it.
@sindarina it's all sounding very Brexit, the same poor excuses from voters who feel some shame now