"#Ukraine will be watching for an opportunity to turn #Russia’s internal chaos into advantage on the frontline. Even if #Prigozhin’s mutiny is brought swiftly under control, it is bound to sow confusion and uncertainty among Russian soldiers and commanders more widely" #UkraineWar #Russia

Prigozhin and #Wagner cannot challenge #Putin’s power directly, but they expose his weakening grip | Keir Giles
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/24/prigozhin-and-wagner-cannot-challenge-putins-power-directly-but-they-expose-his-weakening-grip-keir-giles

"Flights from #Moscow have reportedly sold out as the #Wagner mercenary group approaches.

Der Spiegel has reported that tickets for direct connections from Moscow to #Tbilisi, #Astana and #Istanbul are no longer available." #UkraineWar #Russia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-6496e5cc8f08657ec73221ff#block-6496e5cc8f08657ec73221ff

Big mistake.
----
"Speculation over #Putin's whereabouts amid reports his plane left #Moscow

There have been numerous reports that Vladimir Putin’s presidential plane took off from Moscow’s Vnukovo airport at 2.16pm local time (1216 BST) and then headed north-west." #Russia #Wagner #UkraineWar

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-6496ee518f08657ec732222c#block-6496ee518f08657ec732222c

"The #Lipetsk region is about 360km (225 miles) south of #Moscow and much closer to the capital than Rostov-on-Don, where #Wagner forces appeared during the night." #Russia #UkraineWar

Wagner mercenaries enter Lipetsk province, Russian governor says
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-6496fcac8f084ea43c43f922#block-6496fcac8f084ea43c43f922

#Ukraine liberates territories near city during #Wagner mutiny – reports

"According to Ukrainian news agencies, #Kyiv has liberated the territories near the city of #Krasnohorivka in #Donetsk region, which have been occupied by pro-Russia separatists since 2014." #UkraineWar
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped?page=with:block-649702e88f084ea43c43f958#block-649702e88f084ea43c43f958

Mercenary revolt in #Russia

"#Wagner leader Yevgeny #Prigozhin said his mercenary group has taken control of #Rostov-on-Don amid a feud with Russian military leaders" via NBC #UkraineWar

"The Russian president is facing the most serious threat to his hold on power in all the 23 years he’s run the nuclear state. And it is staggering to behold the veneer of total control he has maintained all that time – the ultimate selling point of his autocracy – crumble overnight."
#Russia #Wagner #Prigozhin #UkraineWar

#Putin is at risk of losing his iron grip on power. The next 24 hours are critical
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/24/europe/russia-putin-wagner-prigozhin-analysis-intl/index.html

“What’s really going to happen, we’ll have to see tomorrow. And who actually did give which concessions to whom,” he told Al Jazeera. “Ceasefires don’t hold that easily. Before you see the small print, it’s not the time to say that it’s over. It can easily unravel in an hour or two, or tomorrow.” - Pavel Felgenhauer, Russian defence analyst

#Wagner boss calls off march on #Moscow; agrees to exile in #Belarus | #Prigozhin #UkraineWar #Putin #Russia
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/24/wagner-boss-says-march-on-moscow-halted-to-avoid-bloodshed

The US Senate has introduced a resolution which proposes that the actions of #Russia, #Belarus “or proxy of Russia” be considered as an attack on #NATO, if their actions lead to radioactive contamination of the allies’ territory. #UkraineWar #Zaporizhzhia #NuclearPlant

Nuclear cloud will trigger NATO’s #Article5, #US warns Russia
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/nuclear-cloud-will-trigger-natos-article-5-us-warns-russia/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon

"#Ukraine in this war is fighting not only for the right to exist, but also for the opportunity to become a European country, intolerant to #corruption…That is why scrutiny of officials and government becomes even more important for journalists than before the war,” says Segvil Musaeva, the editor-in-chief of Ukrainska Pravda." #UkraineWar #Europe

War is reshaping the Ukrainian state—for the better
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/06/22/war-is-reshaping-the-ukrainian-state-for-the-better?utm_medium=social-media.content.np&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial-social&utm_content=discovery.content

"On Saturday in #Copenhagen, as the world trained its eyes on the apparent imminent collapse of #VladimirPutin’s regime, a gathering of senior government security advisers from the global South and the West met with Ukraine’s leadership to discuss a #PathToPeace. The gathering, the first uniting the global south and western powers at this level over #Ukraine has the potential to be even more ominous for #Putin." #UkraineWar

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/25/russia-ukraine-war-live-prigozhin-to-go-to-belarus-as-rebellion-ends-and-wagner-troops-withdraw-from-rostov?page=with:block-649840548f08c081c5bb808f#block-649840548f08c081c5bb808f

"According to delle Fave, #Prigozhin must have had some level of support from the intelligence and military communities, who would have noticed his movements in the days leading up to the rebellion as he moved men and materiel into #Rostov-on-Don." #UkraineWar

Open rebellion against #Russia may be #Wagner chief Prigozhin’s last stand
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230625-open-rebellion-against-russia-could-be-wagner-chief-prigozhin-s-last-stand

“Russia has just lost 25,000 soldiers,” Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, a former general of the U.S. forces in Europe, told Times Radio on Sunday, referring to the #Wagner mercenaries. “Every one of them is going to be looked at with suspicion and seen as unreliable.” #Russia #UkraineWar

Prigozhin’s Wagner mutiny is over. What now?
https://www.politico.eu/article/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-mutiny-over-what-happens-now/

"RIA Novosti, the Russian state-owned news agency, is reporting that the criminal case against Yevgeny #Prigozhin over the mutiny has not been dropped." #Wagner #Russia #UkraineWar

Criminal investigation into Prigozhin continues – Russian media reports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/26/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-claims-advances-near-bakhmut-rouble-falls-to-15-month-low-after-wagner-rebellion?page=with:block-64994acd8f084ea43c4406ab#block-64994acd8f084ea43c4406ab

"The bloc’s military ambitions came as the #UK, a strong opponent of #EU defense integration, was leaving the bloc after #Brexit. With #DonaldTrump as U.S. president, there was fear of #US disengagement from #NATO and #Europe. And then there was #Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation #of Crimea and its war against eastern #Ukraine, which changed perceptions on the potential threats facing the EU." #UkraineWar

https://www.politico.eu/article/after-russia-invasion-ukraine-brussels-eu-military-player-not-power/

"Borrell said the instability in Russia was dangerous given its nuclear arsenal and would be top of the agenda at the #Luxembourg summit, where ministers voted through a promise to top up #Ukraine’s military funds by €3.5bn (£3bn)." #Russia #EU #Wagner #UkraineWar

The monster is acting against his creator, #EU foreign policy chief says of #Prigozhin mutiny
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/26/prigozhin-mutiny-monster-acting-creator-eu-diplomat-josep-borrell

The Russian warlord Yevgeny #Prigozhin has reappeared for the first time since abandoning his armed mutiny on Saturday evening, issuing a defiant 11-minute statement in which he defended the #Wagner uprising and said that “society demanded it.” #Russia #UkraineWar

Society demanded it,' says Prigozhin in first comments since abandoning mutiny
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/26/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-claims-advances-near-bakhmut-rouble-falls-to-15-month-low-after-wagner-rebellion?page=with:block-6499ab8a8f082bf8c46ddfb2#block-6499ab8a8f082bf8c46ddfb2

"Verstka" confirmed the construction of a camp in #Osipovichi, #Mogilev region, for 8, 000 fighters, 200 km from the border with #Ukraine. There will be several camps | #Russia #UkraineWar

#Belarus Begins to Build Camps to Accommodate #Wagner PMC Fighters
https://verstka.media/v-belarusi-stroyat-lagerya-dlya-vagnera

Senior Ukrainian officials in #Kyiv have argued that the attempted coup in #Russia shows that Vladimir #Putin does not guarantee stability - and instead makes it more likely the Russian state will collapse | Luke Harding| #Wagner #UkraineWar

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/26/russia-ukraine-war-live-kyiv-claims-advances-near-bakhmut-rouble-falls-to-15-month-low-after-wagner-rebellion?page=with:block-6499b16d8f082bf8c46de04c#block-6499b16d8f082bf8c46de04c

"When #Russia’s mercenary group marched on #Moscow, it seemed to take the world – and Vladimir #Putin – by surprise . What does it mean for his grip on power – and for his war?" #UkraineWar

What the #Wagner mutiny means for #Ukraine, Russia and Putin #Podcast
https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2023/jun/27/what-the-wagner-mutiny-means-for-ukraine-russia-and-putin-podcast

"The events of June 23-24 amounted to a #mutiny, not a coup d’état. Mercenary leader Yevgeny #Prigozhin’s objective was to renegotiate the terms of his contract with #Putin and the Ministry of Defense, never to topple the regime. That’s how it is in modern #Russia. Events solved elsewhere by lawsuits in hushed courtrooms are fixed with automatic rifles and bombastic social media tirades." #Wagner

Russia’s Security Forces Learn Bitter Lessons From Putin’s Maneuvering
https://cepa.org/article/russias-security-forces-learn-bitter-lessons-from-putins-maneuvering/

"#Prigozhin’s uprising did not come out of nowhere. US officials had been tracking his ongoing growing feud with #Russia’s Ministry of Defense for months, and took note when threats were traded back and forth between them. There were also signs that #Wagner was stockpiling weapons and ammunition leading up to the rebellion, CNN has reported. "

#US gathered detailed intelligence on Wagner chief’s rebellion plans but kept it secret from most allies
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/26/politics/us-intelligence-wagner-chief/index.html

“If #Prigozhin stays in #Belarus and manages #Wagner or something similar, it boosts the political clout of #Lukashenko, who will have his own real private army,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University told Al Jazeera.

Belarus role in #Russia-Wagner feud ‘boosts Lukashenko’s clout’
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/27/what-is-belarus-gaining-from-helping-quell-wagner

I suspected as much, #Lukashenko is preparing for a post-#Putin scenario. He wants to hold on to #Belarus come hell or high water. #Russia

The Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, on Tuesday told his defence minister that #Wagner soldiers could provide Belarus with “priceless” information about warfare.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/27/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-confirms-russian-pilots-killed-during-wagner-mutiny-zelenskiy-visits-front?page=with:block-649ad4f08f08deda08fdcbe1#block-649ad4f08f08deda08fdcbe1

#Poland is going to back these countries up big time.

"#Latvia and #Lithuania called on Tuesday for #Nato to strengthen its eastern borders in response to expectations that #Russia’s #Wagner private will set up a new base in #Belarus after its abortive mutiny at home." | #Prigozhin #Lukashenko
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/27/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-confirms-russian-pilots-killed-during-wagner-mutiny-zelenskiy-visits-front?page=with:block-649afb9e8f083dae8064c512#block-649afb9e8f083dae8064c512

Could this be the abandoned base #Lukashenko was offering to #Wagner? If it is, #Lithuania is going to have a heart attack 💔| #Prigozhin

"#Smarhon (also #Smorgon and Smorgon Northwest) is a former Soviet Air Forces base in Belarus located 8 km northwest of Smarhonʹ. It was a small airfield with an unpaved revetment complex hidden in the forest to the northwest. The airfield is currently abandoned and increasingly overgrown." #Belarus

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smarhon_(air_base)

And nope, this whole mutiny/coup thing wasn't a convoluted, underhanded plan by #Putin to get Wagner to Belarus to threaten #Kyiv. Nor is it a deathtrap.

He's going to keep #Prigozhin alive as long as he can.

"The Belarusian president, Alexander #Lukashenko, said on Tuesday that he had convinced Yevgeny #Prigozhin in an emotional, expletive-laden phone call to end a mutiny by his #Wagner militia that has jolted #Russia."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/27/russia-ukraine-war-live-putin-confirms-russian-pilots-killed-during-wagner-mutiny-zelenskiy-visits-front?page=with:block-649b01218f08deda08fdce61#block-649b01218f08deda08fdce61

#Lukashenko talks about his negotiations with #Prigozhin | #Wagner #Belarus

Posts by @Free_Press

Part 1 https://mstdn.social/@Free_Press/110617099876311183

Part 2
https://mstdn.social/@Free_Press/110617103071121376

“I said to #Putin, ‘Yes we could take him out, it wouldn’t be a problem, if it doesn’t work the first time then it would the second.’ I told him: ‘Don’t do it, because afterwards there will be no negotiations and these guys will be ready to do anything,’” #Lukashenko claimed.| #Wagner #Prigozhin #Russia #Belarus

Putin’s portrayal of response to uprising as a #Kremlin win is proving a hard sell
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/27/putins-portrayal-of-response-to-uprising-as-a-kremlin-win-is-proving-a-hard-sell

"#BEIJING, June 27 (Reuters) - As news broke on Saturday that mercenary #Wagner troops were careering towards #Moscow in a short-lived rebellion, several businessmen from southern #China began frantically calling factories to halt shipments of goods destined for #Russia." #UkraineWar

Wagner mutiny exposes risks for China's deep Russian ties
https://www.reuters.com/world/wagner-mutiny-exposes-risks-chinas-deep-russian-ties-2023-06-27/

#PopeFrancis also told #Zelenskiy they'd help get the kidnapped Ukrainian children back.

The #Kremlin has confirmed the arrival of the papal envoy Cardinal #MatteoZuppi in #Moscow for peace talks | #UkraineWar
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-kramatorsk-death-toll-rises-nato-to-strengthen-eastern-defences?page=with:block-649c14c28f08deda08fdd6bc#block-649c14c28f08deda08fdd6bc

Pick a card. Any card ♥️♠️♦️♣️

"A succession fight involving nukes, a private military up for grabs, an ascendant #Belarus — it’s all on the table in a post-#Wagner mutiny world."

Gaming out #Russia’s future
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-war-ukraine-vladimir-putin-future/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter

"US intelligence claims Gen Sergei #Surovikin, who has close ties to Yevgeny #Prigozhin, had prior knowledge of uprising" #Russia

Russian general who may have known about #Wagner mutiny goes missing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/28/russian-general-wagner-mutiny-goes-missing