Justine
Tim MakGood morning to readers; Moscow remains in Putin’s hands.
For now.
The Wagner Group has seized territory in Russia and is trying to remove the nation’s military leadership from power.
The UK assesses that the mercenaries are trying to get to Moscow.
The war in Ukraine has sparked a mortal challenge to Putin’s regime: the armed mercenaries at the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, are now in open rebellion
We put together an urgent NEWSFLASH report on the breaking developments at
http://counteroffensive.news
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The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack
A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
The British Ministry of Defense called the latest developments "the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times."
According to Wagner Telegram channel claims and contemporaneous videos, they have seized the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don.
That city is a critical site for the ongoing Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
And the BBC, citing Russian sources, is reporting that Wagner forces have also seized military facilities in the city of Voronezh, which is about halfway between Rostov-on-Don and Moscow.
Russian Telegram channels report traffic backed up on the M4 highway around Moscow due to road closures as Prigozhin's thunder-run stretches north.
Until today, Prigozhin and his mercenary group were seen as close allies to the Kremlin. He had earned the nickname “Putin’s chef” due to the catering contracts he secured due to his ties to the president.
This all changed over the last 24 hours when, claiming that the Russian Ministry of Defense had bombed one of the Wagner camps, Prigozhin threatened to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
http://counteroffensive.news
http://counteroffensive.news
The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack
A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
"There are 25,000 of us," Prigozhin said. "We are going to sort this out, why there is lawlessness in the country." The FSB then charged the Wagner head with calling for "armed rebellion," and urged Wagner fighters to arrest him. They have not done so.
The UK Ministry of Defence assessed that Wagner units are “almost certainly” aiming to get to Moscow, and are facing limited resistance -- some Russian security forces "have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner."
In response, a grim-faced Putin addressed Russia in an emergency speech.
You can view our coverage of it at: http://counteroffensive.news
The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack
A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Putin promised “decisive action” to stabilize what he called the “difficult” situation in Rostov-on-Don.
But within hours of his speech, the mercenaries had already progressed hundreds of kilometers north towards Moscow from the strategic city.
The Wagner Chief spits back, not in open rebellion against the president.
At some point he must have realized: both of them cannot survive.
On Telegram, Wagner posted a video they claimed showed a surface-to-air missile attack on a K-52 Russian helicopter belonging to the Ministry of Defense in the Voronezh region earlier today. The video shows the helicopter releasing flares, causing the missile to veer off course.
Five takeaways
1. Upside for Ukraine:
Yuriy Sak, an advisor for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense: “This is going to weaken the terrorist state Russia, and regardless of the outcome, the winner of the situation is going to be Ukraine.”
2. Cracks in Putin’s image:
"Something had to give… whatever happens here is only part of the story, Putin cannot be a strong man and look weak,” said Bill Browder, British businessman and anti-Putin activist, in an interview with The Counteroffensive earlier today.
4. The open infighting was the beginning of the end for Putin:
In a prescient essay earlier this month, Timothy Snyder said that the return of explicit infighting -- the politics -- meant the beginning of the end for Putin's stable hold on power.
5. Somehow, life goes on even during an armed rebellion:
Our view from Ukraine:
It mirrored the initial hours of the invasion in 2022: because of the time difference, we were sleeping when it started. We awoke to news of SBU charges; Wagner’s seizure of government buildings, and general chaos in Russia.
NoctisEqui 🇺🇦🇵🇸🇪🇹🏳️🌈If you run, you’re done.
Russia really has no ‘legitimate’ rule of succession. Who’s the strongest dog in the fight or which dog has the strongest fight in him?
JJ Peterson@timkmak picture all that and add that trump is still president and Blackwater is sick of his sht.
alexmak@timkmak Go Jags!
Joshua Graves@timkmak @jacobhyphenated I just wished Americans didn’t need an Americanized metaphor to understand 😒
hapbt@timkmak Jacksonville is a bad example maybe since everyone would laugh
Sir David Nielsen@timkmak @GottaLaff they kinda forgot that Wagner is also a worldwide enterprise, which makes millions, if not billions, a year, from mining operations in some of the African nations, where they protect dictators, in return for sole rights to their nations’ natural resources.
They are scumbags, but if they wanted ammo and food, then they could certainly afford it.
🍸Pooka🥕Boo🍸@timkmak Putin has threatened nuclear retaliation.... Does anyone think he'll nuke his own country to stop these guys?
The Animal and the Machine@timkmak
#Prigozhin is going to rescue #Putin from that bunker where he is being held by #Gerasimov and #Shoigu but Putin will sadly die in the crossfire
Or some similar narrative.
VHaschIf that isn't echos of 1917, it sure is close.
Nicole ParsonsBillionaire oil oligarchs can fund a coup anywhere. Especially if their wealth is at risk.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_Russian_businesspeople_(2022%E2%80%932023)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/27/world/europe/pavel-antov-russia-dead-india.html#:~:text=The%20body%20of%20the%20millionaire,was%20found%20outside%20his%20hotel.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/06/politics/oligarch-russia-billionaires-government-putin-sanctions/index.html
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/devos-bradley-claremont-trump-election-fraud-insurrection-1274253/
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/01/meet-donald-trumps-top-10-billionaire-enablers/
Kelcy Warren, Perlmutter, Troutt, Ellison, Duggan, Wynn, Ruffin, Hendricks, Adelson, Beal, Duffield, Schwarzman, Johnson, Paulson, Lauder, Koch, Murdoch.
Nathan Wierink@timkmak it’s quite simple. Either putain or pisgozhin will be killed (and if lucky both). And for now the pressure is of on Ukraine and they will seize the moment to drive out the orcs! Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Feralegal@timkmak
Is the 25K number solid?
Is the 25K number solid?
Vincent 🌻🇪🇺 en 🌹☘️@timkmak It’s a dangerous situation, but there are just too many humourous sides to it!
“We will sort out the lawless factions in this nation, said the leader of the prominent lawless faction”
Bishop Whitewind@timkmak oh wow using traffic like that to block the roads is a tad brilliant. Thank god whoever is in charge of creating traffic jams wasn't in charge of the invasion.
Hash@timkmak
How the war ends. Face saving for Putin
How the war ends. Face saving for Putin
DBraun@timkmak @GottaLaff MAGA’s must be panicking also😀
shukes@timkmak I did. Thanks Tim. I'll contribute when I can, starting a new job in a week or so...
Tim Kellogg@timkmak LOL I love this change 😂
Robert Atkins@timkmak “Moscow remains in Putins hands” 😂
NanBP@timkmak Wouldn’t he have been smarter not to broadcast his plans to get to Moscow?
Mark@timkmak The Wagner Group are mercenaries. Who pays them if Prighozin has broken with Putin?
Wokebloke for Democracy@timkmak
In John Brunner's novel, "Stand on Zanzibar" it's China that uses nukes to put down a rebellion .
In John Brunner's novel, "Stand on Zanzibar" it's China that uses nukes to put down a rebellion .
notsoloud@timkmak
Ahhhh, you went and did it! 🤣
Ahhhh, you went and did it! 🤣
penguin42@timkmak Didn't the Russian's have 2ndary military leadership in a bunker in the Urals somewhere?
North Easton 
@timkmak magnificent reversal
Gregnee
ideaPDish@timkmak
How long until atom boo..
How long until atom boo..