Tim MakGood morning to readers; Moscow remains in Putin’s hands.
For now.
The Wagner Group has seized territory in Russia and is trying to remove the nation’s military leadership from power.
The UK assesses that the mercenaries are trying to get to Moscow.
The war in Ukraine has sparked a mortal challenge to Putin’s regime: the armed mercenaries at the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, are now in open rebellion
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The British Ministry of Defense called the latest developments "the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times."
According to Wagner Telegram channel claims and contemporaneous videos, they have seized the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don.
That city is a critical site for the ongoing Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
And the BBC, citing Russian sources, is reporting that Wagner forces have also seized military facilities in the city of Voronezh, which is about halfway between Rostov-on-Don and Moscow.
Russian Telegram channels report traffic backed up on the M4 highway around Moscow due to road closures as Prigozhin's thunder-run stretches north.
Until today, Prigozhin and his mercenary group were seen as close allies to the Kremlin. He had earned the nickname “Putin’s chef” due to the catering contracts he secured due to his ties to the president.
This all changed over the last 24 hours when, claiming that the Russian Ministry of Defense had bombed one of the Wagner camps, Prigozhin threatened to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
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A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
"There are 25,000 of us," Prigozhin said. "We are going to sort this out, why there is lawlessness in the country." The FSB then charged the Wagner head with calling for "armed rebellion," and urged Wagner fighters to arrest him. They have not done so.
The UK Ministry of Defence assessed that Wagner units are “almost certainly” aiming to get to Moscow, and are facing limited resistance -- some Russian security forces "have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner."
In response, a grim-faced Putin addressed Russia in an emergency speech.
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The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack
A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Putin promised “decisive action” to stabilize what he called the “difficult” situation in Rostov-on-Don.
But within hours of his speech, the mercenaries had already progressed hundreds of kilometers north towards Moscow from the strategic city.
The Wagner Chief spits back, not in open rebellion against the president.
At some point he must have realized: both of them cannot survive.
On Telegram, Wagner posted a video they claimed showed a surface-to-air missile attack on a K-52 Russian helicopter belonging to the Ministry of Defense in the Voronezh region earlier today. The video shows the helicopter releasing flares, causing the missile to veer off course.
JJ Peterson@timkmak picture all that and add that trump is still president and Blackwater is sick of his sht.