Tim MakGood morning to readers; Moscow remains in Putin’s hands.
For now.
The Wagner Group has seized territory in Russia and is trying to remove the nation’s military leadership from power.
The UK assesses that the mercenaries are trying to get to Moscow.
The war in Ukraine has sparked a mortal challenge to Putin’s regime: the armed mercenaries at the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, are now in open rebellion
We put together an urgent NEWSFLASH report on the breaking developments at
http://counteroffensive.news
Please sign up!
The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack
A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
The British Ministry of Defense called the latest developments "the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times."
According to Wagner Telegram channel claims and contemporaneous videos, they have seized the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don.
That city is a critical site for the ongoing Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
And the BBC, citing Russian sources, is reporting that Wagner forces have also seized military facilities in the city of Voronezh, which is about halfway between Rostov-on-Don and Moscow.
Russian Telegram channels report traffic backed up on the M4 highway around Moscow due to road closures as Prigozhin's thunder-run stretches north.
Until today, Prigozhin and his mercenary group were seen as close allies to the Kremlin. He had earned the nickname “Putin’s chef” due to the catering contracts he secured due to his ties to the president.
This all changed over the last 24 hours when, claiming that the Russian Ministry of Defense had bombed one of the Wagner camps, Prigozhin threatened to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
http://counteroffensive.news
http://counteroffensive.news
The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack
A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
"There are 25,000 of us," Prigozhin said. "We are going to sort this out, why there is lawlessness in the country." The FSB then charged the Wagner head with calling for "armed rebellion," and urged Wagner fighters to arrest him. They have not done so.
The UK Ministry of Defence assessed that Wagner units are “almost certainly” aiming to get to Moscow, and are facing limited resistance -- some Russian security forces "have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner."
In response, a grim-faced Putin addressed Russia in an emergency speech.
You can view our coverage of it at: http://counteroffensive.news
The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack
A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Putin promised “decisive action” to stabilize what he called the “difficult” situation in Rostov-on-Don.
But within hours of his speech, the mercenaries had already progressed hundreds of kilometers north towards Moscow from the strategic city.
The Wagner Chief spits back, not in open rebellion against the president.
At some point he must have realized: both of them cannot survive.
On Telegram, Wagner posted a video they claimed showed a surface-to-air missile attack on a K-52 Russian helicopter belonging to the Ministry of Defense in the Voronezh region earlier today. The video shows the helicopter releasing flares, causing the missile to veer off course.
Five takeaways
1. Upside for Ukraine:
Yuriy Sak, an advisor for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense: “This is going to weaken the terrorist state Russia, and regardless of the outcome, the winner of the situation is going to be Ukraine.”
2. Cracks in Putin’s image:
"Something had to give… whatever happens here is only part of the story, Putin cannot be a strong man and look weak,” said Bill Browder, British businessman and anti-Putin activist, in an interview with The Counteroffensive earlier today.
4. The open infighting was the beginning of the end for Putin:
In a prescient essay earlier this month, Timothy Snyder said that the return of explicit infighting -- the politics -- meant the beginning of the end for Putin's stable hold on power.
5. Somehow, life goes on even during an armed rebellion:
Our view from Ukraine:
It mirrored the initial hours of the invasion in 2022: because of the time difference, we were sleeping when it started. We awoke to news of SBU charges; Wagner’s seizure of government buildings, and general chaos in Russia.
Over breakfast a waiter came up to us and said with wonderment: “Are you seeing what’s happening in Russia?!” By mid-day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was mocking Putin and vowing victory for Ukraine.
But punchy opening lines aside (“Moscow remains…”), even the most optimistic Ukrainian strategists do not expect the Wagner mutiny of 2023 to succeed. http://counteroffensive.news
The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack
A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
“They have a structure in the country where there needs to be a strong leader; but now the leader is weak,” said Biletskyi, who has been working to undermine Russia’s political stability by encouraging rebellion among the country’s ethnic minorities.
Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War also assessed a low chance of Wagner succeeding.
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1672418243536109568
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.
It was Putin himself that drew comparisons between today and the Russian revolution in 1917.
Russia's involvement in World War I contributed to the Russian Revolution in 1917, and the abdication of Czar Nicholas II. Amid battlefield losses, a lack of weaponry, and high inflation, demonstrators forced the czar out of power.
Sound familiar?
We will be watching closely to see what happens next. We hope you’ll join us.
This urgent NEWSFLASH on the latest happening in Russia is the result of a team effort in Ukraine.
Please sign up for our newsletter as a paid subscriber!
The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak | Substack
A war correspondent's open notebook, reporting live from Kyiv. Compelling human stories that illustrate what’s happening during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Click to read The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.
Experts and intelligence services are great at counting things: how many tanks, troops, rifles?
But the failure to explain why Kyiv didn’t fall in 72 hours and why Kabul did so quickly has to do with the nebulous notion of ‘will to fight’
Does the Russian military have it?
So far? No. The Russian military, the border forces do not seem to want to get in the way of Wagner forces.
How else to explain advances in the 100s of kilometers over just hours?
Moscow mayor with a bit of an understatement: “the situation is difficult”
He also declares Monday a non working day.
What’s a good gif for how you were supposed to leave Ukraine today because you’ve worked six weeks without a day off but instead Wagner launches an armed rebellion in Russia so you stay
excited for the mastodon rise@timkmak Guy with two girls.
Red dress is "Wagner Rebellion", dude is you, girlfriend is "vacation"
Patrick Dersjant RCX
Brian Clark@timkmak ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Jason Perseus has movedIdk but the emoji is 🫠 for sure
Bruce Halperin 
Jesse
Katma
North Easton 
Jef Poskanzer
Ironski
Derek Caelin is writing a book@timkmak stay safe, Tim!
Tim Kellogg@timkmak best wishes. Rest will come
Darwin Woodka@timkmak Magyar eating popcorn?
Timo J@timkmak I was originally headed a different way than this, but…
Joel
JJ Peterson@timkmak
The inimitable Gilda Radner as the iconic Rosanne Roseannadanna for you kids who missed the early years of snl.
The inimitable Gilda Radner as the iconic Rosanne Roseannadanna for you kids who missed the early years of snl.
Chloe Tse 
Pablo Rrrrrrr@timkmak Not sure about the gif, but the German word is Schadenf*%#€d.
Curly Wyer
Jamie Baker RoskieMC Escher, falling down Penrose Stairs
Charity Feb
Penny ✌🏽👊🏼💪🏾@timkmak Hope you get a day off soon. So appreciate the work you have been doing in Ukraine! 🫶🏽
MrCopilot
Martin Escardo@timkmak Invasion holiday?
DeterioratedStucco@timkmak
It does rather explain the original planning for the Ukraine "SMO".
Putin and Shoigu assumed Ukrainians were like Russians.
It does rather explain the original planning for the Ukraine "SMO".
Putin and Shoigu assumed Ukrainians were like Russians.
@timkmak
Thinking about it, it probably partly explains the SMO itself. From Putin's perspective, that difference is a threat (economically, politically) and an opportunity (it's lootable, and that will continue till the population is cowed and thus unproductive - or perhaps Putin saw an opportunity to reduce the influence of oligarchs by making it clear what damage they had done).
Thinking about it, it probably partly explains the SMO itself. From Putin's perspective, that difference is a threat (economically, politically) and an opportunity (it's lootable, and that will continue till the population is cowed and thus unproductive - or perhaps Putin saw an opportunity to reduce the influence of oligarchs by making it clear what damage they had done).
John Nephew@timkmak I feel like this is less military coup or civil war, and more like a gangster rivalry? Reminds me of the scene in Miller's Crossing where the police chief and mayor are just paying court to whoever is the boss of the mobsters. Seems like most of the country is just stepping aside until it's clear who will be the person for the bribes and fight-fixing and whatever else makes the corrupt system grind along.
SloanLA@timkmak I doubt treating soldiers like cannon fodder for over a year has endeared Putin to them… I can't imagine the oligarchs are happy with how this insanity has affected their money either. What support does Putin have?
Michael Maguire 🇨🇦 🇬🇧🇨🇭🇮🇹@timkmak Good article! Thank you.
But former classics students want to know how can you bring up "Historical Parallels" without mentioning Caesar and the Rubicon?
VHaschThere was also the ruling class ignoring most of the country and corrupt layers of bureaucracies bleeding the economy. Much like the oligarchs of today.
Good point.
RojCowlesMaybe other parallels/rhymes.
Didn't Nicholas II start a "short victorious" war against Japan in 1904 to shore up support at home that didn't entirely go to plan that may in turn have lead to the WWI cluster Eff?
bouriquet@timkmak Methinks that the Institute has not considered the impact of a population tired of publicly supporting a lie but privately knowing it was a lie.
I wonder what their estimate of Ukraine’s chances of success were over a year ago?
I wonder what their estimate of Ukraine’s chances of success were over a year ago?
wasabi brain@timkmak on the other hand regular Russian army just saw Wagner be the most effective fighting force in Ukraine. I can see why he was able to do as much as he has without much resistance so far.
NoctisEqui 🇺🇦🇵🇸🇪🇹🏳️🌈If you run, you’re done.
Russia really has no ‘legitimate’ rule of succession. Who’s the strongest dog in the fight or which dog has the strongest fight in him?