About that graph on #ocean heat:
"The shocking visual is prompting many to ask whether this recent surge [in #ocean heat] is evidence that human-caused heating has propelled the #climate past a #TippingPoint.
Climate scientists say the answer is likely no. Instead, it is much more probable to be ... a coincidence of natural factors piled on top of the steady trend of human-caused global heating. "
Jeff Berardelli explains those factors:
1/N
This is worth repeating: nearly all the heat from #GlobalWarming goes into the oceans, so water temperatures have been rising steadily.
On top of that there is an #ElNiño developing. This is where the Pacific Ocean burps up heat.
But oceans and the #atmosphere are all connected, so what happens in the Pacific doesn't stay in the Pacific. Weather patterns, winds, pressure systems are affected all over the planet.
2/N
"At the same time, in the high latitudes of Canada and the far North Atlantic, a very blocked #JetStream pattern has persisted for weeks. These persistent weather patterns have a significant impact on the underlying sea surface temperatures."
This #OmegaBlock has a hand in the wildfires in Canada, warmed up the northeast Atlantic, and has resulted in "record-shattering heat" in the tropical Atlantic.
3/N
The next factor is about the Faustian bargain we have with #AirPollution: it kills. At the same time it shields the planet from the sun's heat - yes, we're already doing #GeoEngineering on a big scale.
Industralised nations are cleaning up their act, and the air. Sulfur emissions from global #shipping have plummeted, and with those also serious air pollution. Yay! But it does thin the heat shield.
This year, there is also less Sahara dust blowing around.
4/N
All in all, the message from this article is that our planet is a marvelous planet, we are just barely starting to understand its mechanisms for keeping us safe and the ecosystem in balance.
It does have a few quirks that make life exciting (sometimes maybe more exciting than you would like). We need to stop heating the planet to keep those events from being too exciting in a bad way.
Also, read Jeff Berardelli for yourself: he's explains stuff really well.
5/5
"What makes these most recent temperature spikes so alarming is that they’ve occurred before a forecast #ElNiño event in the Pacific, rather than during one."
"Since 1971, about 89 % of the excess heat in Earth’s climate system has been stored in the ocean (with 6 % on land, 1 % in the atmosphere, and about 4 % going towards melting ice on land and sea)."
When the #oceans give up a little heat the #atmosphere heats up a lot.
https://theconversation.com/global-average-sea-and-air-temperatures-are-spiking-in-2023-before-el-nino-has-fully-arrived-we-should-be-very-concerned-207731
Over the past three years, Earth’s climate system has accumulated an average of 11 Hiroshima bombs’ worth of excess energy per second. And it’s showing in the current surge in ocean temperature.
"What’s happened in recent weeks to turn the drip-drip-drip of #climate warming into a full-on torrent? Below is a look at several of the most prominent global and regional records and some of the factors that may be leading to the recent spikes. "
A rogue's gallery of culprits
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/07/the-world-just-broke-a-stunning-slew-of-heat-records-why-right-now/
#ElNino #jetstream #ClimateChange
"Some scientists caution the attention given to these big numbers can overshadow the real-world hazards they amplify: #Heatwaves, #floods and #droughts becoming much more #frequent, #severe and long-lasting as the Earth heats up.
The world gets hung up on blockbuster records but “these heat records are not exciting numbers,” she told CNN. “They mean that people and ecosystems are dying, that people are losing their livelihoods, that agricultural land will be unusable.”"
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/08/world/extreme-global-temperature-heat-records-climate/index.html
"El Niño normally lasts for a couple of years and is happening on top of a long-term trend of human-driven #GlobaWarming.
#ElNiño strengthening into next year could make 2024 the hottest year on record. El Niño can add up to 0.2°C to global temperatures."
Strap in. This El Niño is barely getting started, and the world is already <waves around> like this.
https://theconversation.com/what-el-nino-means-for-the-worlds-perilous-climate-tipping-points-209083
"More than 61,000 people are now estimated to have died as a result of the soaring temperatures that gripped #Europe last summer.
Given the likelihood of that record being broken this year – or next year at the latest – there is a strong chance that 2022’s grim death toll will be topped very soon with Mediterranean nations such as #Greece, #Spain and #Italy likely to suffer the worst consequences."
#ClimateChange #heatwave #ElNiño
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/16/red-alert-the-worlds-hottest-week-ever-and-more-is-to-forecast-to-come
"July will likely be Earth’s hottest month in hundreds if not thousands of years.
Scientists anticipate that 2024 will be even hotter than 2023, as an #ElNiño weather pattern – known for a tendency to boost global temperatures – will likely peak toward the end of this year."
#ClimateChange
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/20/nasa-climate-crisis-july-hottest-month
"Human-made #ClimateChange is supercharging natural weather phenomena to drive #heatwaves roasting #Asia, #Europe and #NorthAmerica that could make 2023 the hottest year since records began, scientists say."
"Deep, rapid and sustained cuts in carbon #emissions to net zero can halt the warming, but humanity will have to adapt to even more severe heatwaves in the future."
Human-made climate change is supercharging natural weather phenomena to drive heatwaves roasting Asia, Europe and North America that could make 2023 the hottest year since records began, scientists say. Here experts explain how 2023 has got so hot, warning these record temperatures will get worse even if humanity sharply cuts…
"Researchers say the deadly hot spells in the American Southwest and Southern Europe could not have happened without the continuing buildup of warming gases in the air."
The takeaway: These extreme heatwaves are set to recur every decade or so IN THE CURRENT CLIMATE with 1.2C warming. But the climate ain't done changing until we're done burning stuff for our energy.
Climate change’s sweaty fingerprints are all over the July heat waves gripping much of the globe. A new study finds these intense and deadly hot spells in the American Southwest and Southern Europe could not have occurred without it. Tuesday's study finds the increase in heat-trapping gases from the burning of fossil fuels has made a third simultaneous heat wave — one in China — 50 times more likely. An ever-warming world also made the European heat wave 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit hotter, the one in the United States and Mexico 3.6 degrees warmer and the Chinese one 1.8 degrees toastier.
"The extremes this year are sharper than anthropogenic #GlobalWarming alone would be expected to cause.
Three additional natural factors are also helping drive up global temperatures and fuel disasters this year: #ElNiño, solar fluctuations and a massive underwater #volcanic eruption."
#ClimateChange
https://theconversation.com/4-factors-driving-2023s-extreme-heat-and-climate-disasters-209975
It's official, and pretty drastic:
"The global average temperature for July 2023 is confirmed to be the highest on record for any month, and 0.33°C warmer than the previous warmest month, July 2019.
The month is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the average for 1850-1900."
A 0.33C difference sounds smol. But it turns out to be a Big Deal: the planet went from loud alarm bells (up to 2022) to outright conflagration.
https://climate.copernicus.eu/july-2023-global-air-and-ocean-temperatures-reach-new-record-highs
The #heat is on.
And it will stay on.
"There’s a 50 per cent chance that 2023 will be the Earth’s warmest year on record, according to NASA experts.
And, with the biggest impacts of #ElNiño yet to be felt, 2024 will be even warmer."
#ClimateChange
https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/08/15/way-warmer-than-anything-weve-ever-seen-50-chance-2023-will-be-the-hottest-year-ever-nasa-
"“I think we are definitely going to see a lot of extremes in the upcoming years simply because the system is more powerful,” he said.
“There is a great deal of energy in that ocean warming, and it could power so much more extreme events.”
Many climate scientists believe it already has."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-21/ocean-tempertature-records-2023/102701172
Climate scientists say natural "anaesthetics" have been masking the true impact of climate change for years, but this year it's worn off. The world's ocean temperature is at record highs, Antarctic sea ice is at record lows, and extreme weather has lashed the world. Here's what's behind the intense heat, and what it could bring.
The world just went though the hottest summer since records began, and there's more to come, with El Niño hanging on until at least March. And:
"The odds of at least a 'strong' #ElNiño have increased to 71%," CPC said.
Batten down the hatches if you can, it's going to be a wild ride.
There is a more than 95% chance that the El Niño weather pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter from January - March 2024, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday, bringing more extreme conditions.
"Global warming has picked up pace since around 2010.
Our new study reveals that reductions in air pollution – particularly in China and east Asia – are a key reason for this faster warming.
In addition to causing millions of premature deaths, air pollution shields the Earth from sunlight and therefore cools the surface. There has been so much air pollution that it has held human-induced warming in check by up to 0.5°C over the last century."
"Over the [last 15 years], countries in East Asia have made strong efforts to clean up air pollution, which is important for public health. The largest air pollution clean-up has been made in China, where ambient air pollution is responsible for about 1 million deaths a year."
https://phys.org/news/2025-07-air-pollution-east-asia-global.html
Both China and India have started to mandate ultra-low sulfur diesel over the past decade, phasing out diesel with high sulfur content that gives the air pollution. Both countries now have diesel with 10 ppm sulfur, same as in Europe, and lower than in the US where ULSD has 15 ppm sulfur.
In Africa: cleaner fuels and less air pollution means that warming is no longer masked.
"Declines in cooling sulfates combined with increases in greenhouse gas concentrations have increased the intensity and frequency of African heat waves. And the temperature spikes may be even more intense than has been recorded."
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06092025/emissions-increase-africa-heat-waves/
Declines in cooling sulfates combined with increases in greenhouse gas concentrations have increased the intensity and frequency of African heat waves. And the temperature spikes may be even more intense than has been recorded.
"Termination shock"
"Global action to improve air quality – by shutting down coal-fired power stations and cleaning up shipping fuels – has saved millions of lives in recent decades. But on the flip side, air pollution can also cool the planet. Removing it has released a surge of warming that has warped the weather around the world.
The race is on to understand how bad it could be – and how to swerve the worst effects."
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2494279-is-earths-climate-in-a-state-of-termination-shock/
Efforts to reduce air pollution have been successful - but have unintended consequences on oceans.
"Between 2003 and 2022, clouds over the Northeastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, both sites of rapid surface warming, became nearly 3% less reflective per decade. Researchers attribute approximately 70% of this change to aerosols — fine particles that float through the atmosphere and influence both cloud cover and cloud composition."
https://www.miragenews.com/air-pollutions-chilling-impact-1564383
"Global heating accelerated from a steady rate of less than 0.2C per decade between 1970 and 2015 to about 0.35C per decade over the past 10 years."
"Extreme heat in recent years has been pushed higher by natural fluctuations – such as solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and the weather pattern El Niño."
Not mentioned:
The big reduction of air pollution has been great for lung health but it has reduced the solar dimming - and the global cooling - by the pollution.
"This year is now almost certain to become Earth's warmest on record after a hot July and August saw global temperatures reach the #ParisAgreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
While the latter months of 2016 cooled off, global temperatures this year have been building, a trend likely to continue as #ElNiño develops further."
"Global surface temperatures have dramatically spiked since the start of June, with the past four months (June-September) breaking prior monthly records by a large margin.
Next-generation reanalysis products use data from satellites, weather balloons, airplanes, surface stations, buoys, and ships to feed into state of the art weather models that calculate [daily] global #temperatures back in time" to 1958."
#ElNiño #ClimateChange
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/visualizing-a-summer-of-extremes
The #ExtremeWeather this year has been very alarming. AND it is in line with what #climate scientists have been saying, indeed the #ClimateScience has been remarkably accurate.
Climate science gives the view from 30,000 feet: it has, so far, less to say about this particular wildfire here or that flood there.
Also:
“There is a misconception that these extreme weather events constitute some sort of ‘tipping point’ that we’ve crossed. They don’t." - Michael E. Mann
Beware of people claiming that IPCC scientist are somehow "sugarcoating" the climate crisis.
If you tend to question the IPCC, ask yourself honestly where you got that notion from. I mean, it's awfully convenient for the #FossilFuel industry if people don't trust climate scientists, amirite.
You can't get all those climate scientists to agree to sugarcoat things, just as you can't get all those scientists to "conspire" on a "hoax" about the climate science.
Get it from the horses' mouths, in detail:
"The Guardian asked 45 leading climate scientists from around the world.
The scientists told us that, despite it certainly feeling as if events had taken a frightening turn, the global heating seen to date was entirely in line with three decades of scientific predictions. Being proved right was cold comfort, they said, as their warnings had so far been largely in vain."
More #ExtremeWeather in store this fall and winter:
"El Niño is developing alongside an unprecedented surge in global temperatures that scientists say has increased the likelihood of brutal heat waves and deadly floods of the kind seen in recent weeks."
Remember:
Climate is climate
Weather is weather.
They have different times scales and different geographic scales, so don't expect climate science to predict the local weather.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/26/super-el-nino-forecast-winter/
"This year is "virtually certain" to be the warmest in 125,000 years, European Union scientists said on Wednesday, after data showed last month was the world's hottest October in that period.
Last month smashed through the previous October temperature record, from 2019, by a massive margin [0.4C], the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said."
“Records will continue to fall next year, especially as the growing #ElNiño begins to take hold, exposing billions to unusual #heat,” said Andrew Pershing, vice president for science at Climate Central. “While #climate impacts are most acute in developing countries near the equator, seeing climate-fueled streaks of #ExtremeHeat in the US, India, Japan and Europe underscores that no one is safe from #ClimateChange.”
Volcanic aerosols have a cooling effect. But "Hunga Tonga’s eruption presented a unique scenario: As a submarine volcano, it introduced an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the stratosphere, increasing total stratospheric water content by about 10%."
But water vapour is a wildcard; it's looking like the eruption gave global cooling not heating. So the exceptional heat in the past two years is even harder to account for.
Widely thought to be responsible for Earth's extreme warmth during the past two years, researchers say the Hunga Tonga eruption actually cooled the climate. Research by Texas A&M University explores the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcano eruption's climate effects, discovering that it caused cooling
'Looking back at the most extreme months of heat in the second half of 2023 and early 2024 when the previous records were beaten at times by more than 0.2C, an enormous anomaly, he said scientists were still baffled: “We don’t have a quantitative explanation for even half of it. That is pretty humbling.”"
Surge in #OceanHeat is a sign #ClimateChange is accelerating
"The rate of warming in the oceans has more than quadrupled since 1985, suggesting global warming in general has undergone a marked acceleration."
"Ocean temperatures are now rising at a rate of 0.27C per decade, compared to 0.06C 40 years ago. That acceleration is fueled by an increase in the Earth’s energy balance, which has roughly doubled since 2010 as greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and disappearing ice has meant less sunlight is reflected back into space, the study concluded."
"The world's cloud cover has been shrinking significantly and may help explain the extraordinary heat of the last two years, new research led by NASA found."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-19/shrinking-cloud-cover-driving-temperature-records/105428180
"Life on Earth depends on a balance between heat coming in from the Sun and heat leaving. This balance is tipping to one side.
Our recent research found this imbalance has more than doubled over the last 20 years.
We don’t yet have a full explanation. But new research suggests changes in clouds is a big factor."
As the song says, "we really don't know clouds, at all".
"Worldwide, cloud patterns are now changing in concerning ways. Scientists have found the expanse of Earth’s highly reflective clouds is steadily shrinking. With less heat reflected, the Earth is now trapping more heat than expected.
To be clear, clouds aren’t going to disappear. They may increase in some areas. But the belts of shiny white clouds we need most are declining between 1.5 and 3% per decade."
Well crap. Clouds was one of the feedbacks that we really didn't have much clue about, so if it's showing up this early and this strongly, that's a very bad sign.
The 2023-2024 El Niño is different from previous ones.
"We have a lot of potential mediocre explanations (e.g. low sulfur marine fuel regulations, the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption in 2022, an uptick in the 11 year solar cycle, #ElNino behaving weirdly, etc.). But these have increasingly been modeled, and it is hard to explain the magnitude of the global temperature anomaly the world has experienced even adding all of these estimates together."
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/2024s-unusually-persistent-warmth
"A drop in the number of low-altitude #clouds was behind unexplained warming that contributed to the world's hottest year on record, a new study suggests.
The analysis suggested in 2023, there were far fewer low clouds over the northern mid-latitude and tropical oceans, particularly in the Atlantic, and this could account for the 0.2C of warming.
But the reasons for this drop in low cloud cover are unclear."
CelloMom On Cars
Rhinos Worry Me
For the love of humanity