Lorna
Judd Legum1. The US murder rate is down an 12% year-to-date, based on 90 cities that have released data.
If the trend holds it will be the single largest annual decline in the murder rate ever recorded.
And yet, you probably haven't heard anything about it.
🧵
2. In 2020, along with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a dramatic spike in murders in the United States.
This increase in lethal violence, understandably, was covered extensively in national and local media outlets.
3. Yet, much of this coverage lacked critical context. While the increase in murders was significant, the overall murder rate remained far below its peak in the 1980s and 90s.
4. But now Jeff Asher (@[email protected]) has published data revealing the plunge in the murder rate in dozens of cities
Asher calls this drop "astonishing"
But other than a piece Asher wrote for The Atlantic, the data has not merited any dedicated coverage in major outlets
5. The quantity and tenor of crime coverage matters. It shapes public sentiment about crime and ultimately shapes important decisions around public safety budgets, police tactics, and criminal justice policy.
US murder rate declines dramatically in 2023 — but you probably haven't heard about it
In 2020, along with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a dramatic spike in murders in the United States. This increase in lethal violence, understandably, was covered extensively in national and local media outlets. Yet, much of this coverage lacked critical context. While the increase in murders was significant, the overall murder rate remained far below its peak in the 1980s and 90s.
6. In many large cities, the decline in the murder rate is even more pronounced.
Year-to-date murders have declined 40% in Minneapolis, 28% in Atlanta, 26% in Los Angeles, and 18% in Baltimore.
But local coverage of these declines has been sparse or non-existent.
7. The Baltimore Sun, for example, features regular coverage of murders in Baltimore City, which is appropriate.
But the Sun has not mentioned that the murder rate has declined 18% year-over-year through June 10.
US murder rate declines dramatically in 2023 — but you probably haven't heard about it
In 2020, along with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a dramatic spike in murders in the United States. This increase in lethal violence, understandably, was covered extensively in national and local media outlets. Yet, much of this coverage lacked critical context. While the increase in murders was significant, the overall murder rate remained far below its peak in the 1980s and 90s.
8. For more journalism grounded in facts, subscribe to Popular Information.
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Ehuff“With murder rates down across the US, why does it feel like they’re up?”
NY Times Pitchbot probably
James Britt"Murder rates down across the US: Why this is bad for Biden"
ScottinSoCal 🇺🇦 🕊 🏳🌈"Cure found for cancer and the common cold - how this spells doom for the Biden agenda"
JohnW
Dr. Flowers@juddlegum Probably because there are so many mass shootings these days, individual targets are already dead. @stargazersmith
JW prince of CPH@juddlegum this is a stunningly clear example of the problem with modern "newsworthiness", i.e. something that riles up emotions: That criterion OVERWHELMINGLY favors bad news...
annie gray@juddlegum
Pardon me please if I'm missing part of the story, but do you know of any theories about why the murder rate is declining?
Pardon me please if I'm missing part of the story, but do you know of any theories about why the murder rate is declining?
GreenDotGuy@snooze_cat @juddlegum in the 'decades' timeframe, or why they went down from the last few years?
I think there's not going to be one answer, but pandemic stresses and alcohol abuse probably played a big part in the last rise.
One thing to keep an eye on... local news will always blame local politicians, but violent crime rates often follow national trends, not local ones. If people are anxious, not able to make ends meet, and drunk, there is going to be increased violence.
@DarcMoughty @juddlegum
I meant over the longer timeframe. I do understood why the pandemic led to more violence... major trauma and disruption, economic disaster for so many. Everything from 2016 on was pretty stressful in my experience, though my family is among the luckiest.
I meant over the longer timeframe. I do understood why the pandemic led to more violence... major trauma and disruption, economic disaster for so many. Everything from 2016 on was pretty stressful in my experience, though my family is among the luckiest.
@snooze_cat @juddlegum There are a lot of reasons posited, from abortion availability in the late 70s leading to fewer 'unwanted children becoming murderous adults' in the late 90s, to the reduction in lead poisoning leading to people being less demented, to social changes that reduced the impact and scope of abject inner-city poverty, or the effects of mass-incarceration. I've even heard that air conditioning may have had an effect.
* note that this does not imply my specific opinions on any of these or their validity, just that they're part of the conversation when we talk about the precipitous decline in crime since the mid 90s.
@DarcMoughty @juddlegum
Thank you! I'm curious about trends in drug use, too. It'd be interesting to know if crack and meth lead to more violent behavior than opiates.
Thank you! I'm curious about trends in drug use, too. It'd be interesting to know if crack and meth lead to more violent behavior than opiates.
The Mïghty Kräcken@snooze_cat @juddlegum One theory is that there is less lead in the environment. Lead does bad things to the human brain.
@Klaxun @juddlegum
Right, I tend to forget about leaded gas. Awful for the children especially. I worked with a program that tracked blood lead results related to workplaces, and it's still a big problem in some fields.
Right, I tend to forget about leaded gas. Awful for the children especially. I worked with a program that tracked blood lead results related to workplaces, and it's still a big problem in some fields.
@snooze_cat @juddlegum mind if I ask what fields is it a problem in?
@Klaxun @juddlegum
People who work in car radiator shops or deal with battery recycling can be exposed to high levels. Also target ranges.
People who work in car radiator shops or deal with battery recycling can be exposed to high levels. Also target ranges.
@snooze_cat @juddlegum those are my last three jobs, and I currently sell fishing weights. Should I be worried?
@Klaxun @juddlegum
Not if you wash your hands before eating/smoking and change to clean clothes and shoes before leaving work to protect your family. Workplace should pay for a blood test to check your level. If it's over 5 (used to be 10), they'll report it to the state (in WA, at least) who will send you information about avoiding exposure. If you correct the exposure, your level should gradually decrease over time.
Not if you wash your hands before eating/smoking and change to clean clothes and shoes before leaving work to protect your family. Workplace should pay for a blood test to check your level. If it's over 5 (used to be 10), they'll report it to the state (in WA, at least) who will send you information about avoiding exposure. If you correct the exposure, your level should gradually decrease over time.
@Klaxun @juddlegum
You're so welcome! I sure enjoyed being involved in the workplace safety field. Love helping people.
You're so welcome! I sure enjoyed being involved in the workplace safety field. Love helping people.
John Bell 🇺🇦🇪🇺🔸🕷️🏴@snooze_cat @Klaxun @juddlegum wiki reference here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead–crime_hypothesis
PeachMcD@juddlegum
Stoking Crime Paranoia is how the Right keeps folks from looking at white collar crime & wage theft that are impacting us at much higher rates. It's racist af
Stoking Crime Paranoia is how the Right keeps folks from looking at white collar crime & wage theft that are impacting us at much higher rates. It's racist af
Sane Thinker@PeachMcD @juddlegum Absolutely true. Let's compare white collar theft to muggings by people of color. Michael Moore made this point in one of his movies, sorry, I don't remember which one.
Cảm ơn@juddlegum can someone plot the number of true crime podcasts produced per year vs yearly crime rate 🤔
TeamRose@juddlegum
Really appreciate the work you do.
I can’t afford the newsletter, but your threads expose me to important stories & info.
Always providing sources & links.
Brilliant.
Really appreciate the work you do.
I can’t afford the newsletter, but your threads expose me to important stories & info.
Always providing sources & links.
Brilliant.
Madame Beloved Dictator@juddlegum
The extremist GOP Mississippi governor has used the murder rate in Jackson, without context, to damage our majority black, dem-run city. The constant drumbeat of “Jackson is dangerous!” has hurt businesses, property values, tourism.
The extremist GOP Mississippi governor has used the murder rate in Jackson, without context, to damage our majority black, dem-run city. The constant drumbeat of “Jackson is dangerous!” has hurt businesses, property values, tourism.
Mark@juddlegum
Some people ascribe the decline in the murder rate in the 1990s to the removal of lead from petrol (gasoline).
Is it safe to use such recent numbers for murders? Could they be low because legal process takes years?
Some people ascribe the decline in the murder rate in the 1990s to the removal of lead from petrol (gasoline).
Is it safe to use such recent numbers for murders? Could they be low because legal process takes years?
Matt McIrvin@juddlegum So many dislocations caused by the COVID pandemic have caused truckloads of analysis before we know which changes are permanent and which ones are just temporary.
I see that in all the writing about jobs and the economy, too--labor force participation is shooting up right now; the Great Resignation seems to have been a transient thing.
mmby@juddlegum if we extrapolate the trend, when will the US be murder-free?
Sam Gross@juddlegum @codinghorror It's also notable that other forms of crime are declining as well. The felony rate in the NYC subway, which was a major issue in our mayoral elections in 2021 and continued to drive policy through 2022 and into 2023, is down 20% YoY. Also one of the (if not the largest) drop recorded.
It does remain to be seen how seasonality affects this but this is astounding and underreported. I only know about it because of the good work of @ndhapple
Bartek Ogryczak@juddlegum so like more 5 consecutive years of declines like this needed to reach current Canadian numbers. Over a decade of declines would be needed to reach current European levels.
Kenneth John Bardsley@juddlegum
Until there is sensible gun reform, people will continue to die unnecessarily in the USA. The level is irrelevant if you or a loved one is the one being shot, or killed in some other illegal way. One such death is too many. It IS the guns. We don't have them here in the UK, and our murder rates are much lower than those in the US. Knife crime is still a problem here however. Mass shootings are almost unheard of.
Until there is sensible gun reform, people will continue to die unnecessarily in the USA. The level is irrelevant if you or a loved one is the one being shot, or killed in some other illegal way. One such death is too many. It IS the guns. We don't have them here in the UK, and our murder rates are much lower than those in the US. Knife crime is still a problem here however. Mass shootings are almost unheard of.
Kris Samsel@juddlegum Over 300 mass shootings, this year. Record high! https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/06/19/more-than-300-us-mass-shootings-recorded-halfway-into-2023-this-year-is-on-pace-to-be-deadliest-ever/amp/
Gen X-Wing@humansriseup @juddlegum I wonder how the statistics change if you move mass murders into its own category. Do murder rates drop further then perhaps?
Because there’s a horrific amount of people dying in mass murders these days:(
@breadbin @juddlegum Apparently? You haven’t checked my posts.
Honest Charlie@juddlegum Well, I heard about it, but then I'm a left-wing radical. I even voted for Democrats!
David Mitchell 
And yet to maintain appropriate context:
a 12% reduction doesn’t come close to reversing the 30% increase of 2020 which was on top of a 20+% increase in the 5 years prior.
Just because it could be (and has been) worse doesn’t mean that it’s ok… and the overall trend in recent years should remain concerning.
Gull@juddlegum The same problem, but more persistent, with mass shootings. Every new mass shooting (however one defines that) is further "proof" that things are worse than ever, but coverage never normalizes for population. Most of the attention being given to certain kinds of shootings (like school shootings) gives a false impression that the problem is brand new and hugely increasing when there are and were many similar events in slightly different venues. I'm in favor of gun control, but the discourse on mass shootings also has a right-wing "decadent society" component, and the discourse isn't based on honest attempts to assemble an accurate picture.
gavinisdie 
@juddlegum hey, that's something good happening in the US
Captain Meowington@juddlegum Appreciate the new information to peruse, thanks, Corporal!
BlueDot🇺🇦One night during the Clinton administration, I was driving home from work and heard over NPR that serious crime had dropped 30% from the previous year. Big news.
I got home just in time to catch the beginning of local TV news. So I turned on the TV and flipped between the three local stations' evening news programs to see if they covered this huge story.
For the first 15 minutes, all I saw on all three stations was coverage of local crime.
Kyle Memoir 🍉🐧Newsies themselves have for years said it best: “If it bleeds, it leads.”
It’s all about eyeballs, emotion and money; what it’s not about is thinking.
Steve Davidian@juddlegum Just heard about it - thanks.
That said, shouldn't we also be looking at more than murders? What about injuries? Beatings? Other forms of assault? Looking at one thing in isolation seems a bit myopic. Just saying.
That said, shouldn't we also be looking at more than murders? What about injuries? Beatings? Other forms of assault? Looking at one thing in isolation seems a bit myopic. Just saying.
Greg Stolze@juddlegum I know I’m going to sound snide posting this but honestly, HONESTLY, my first thought was “the low prices and high quality of pornography and video games are clearly keeping a lot of hands occupied.”
@juddlegum … how many deaths are not reported or decided not to be murders? …
Matir 
@juddlegum So, like many other things in our society, COVID caused a year or two of outliers and it's not a full on trend reversal...
SamHughes@juddlegum You just jinxed the murder rate from going down.
OldeHippi 🦋🎨🙏🌺But murder by strangers is way up. #massshooting
Siderea, Sibylla BostoniensisI don't understand why you think any of that data is credible.
Your journalistic colleagues have reported scandal after scandal after scandal where cops have manipulated reported crime rates to make police departments look effective at deterring crime.
Ours is a society in which there are literal tens of thousands of unanalyzed rape kits on back shelves of PDs in major cities around this country.
Ours is a society in which women of color go missing - especially Native American women - and no law enforcement thinks it worth wondering where they went.
Ours is a society in which police departments have been caught refusing to accept reports of violent crime while manufacturing petty charges to artificially make it look like "Broken Windows" policing works.
Ours is a society in which something like 95% of criminal charges result in a plea deal which has the effect of the statistical record of crime showing the less-violent pleas and not the actual crimes committed.
Ours is a society that's developed superb medical responses to gunshot wounds, so a whole lot of what would have been murders are rendered, by the grace of medical intervention, merely assault.
How can anyone believe we have the faintest notion of how much violent crime there is?
Dwight Williams (💉 x9)+😷🇨🇦@siderea @juddlegum I suspect that stats on such things are similarly distorted in Canada.
ChookMother 🇦🇺🦘@juddlegum The number of mass shootings is at an all-time high.
Epic Lemur