Judd Legum1. The US murder rate is down an 12% year-to-date, based on 90 cities that have released data.
If the trend holds it will be the single largest annual decline in the murder rate ever recorded.
And yet, you probably haven't heard anything about it.
🧵
2. In 2020, along with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a dramatic spike in murders in the United States.
This increase in lethal violence, understandably, was covered extensively in national and local media outlets.
3. Yet, much of this coverage lacked critical context. While the increase in murders was significant, the overall murder rate remained far below its peak in the 1980s and 90s.
4. But now Jeff Asher (@[email protected]) has published data revealing the plunge in the murder rate in dozens of cities
Asher calls this drop "astonishing"
But other than a piece Asher wrote for The Atlantic, the data has not merited any dedicated coverage in major outlets
5. The quantity and tenor of crime coverage matters. It shapes public sentiment about crime and ultimately shapes important decisions around public safety budgets, police tactics, and criminal justice policy.
US murder rate declines dramatically in 2023 — but you probably haven't heard about it
In 2020, along with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a dramatic spike in murders in the United States. This increase in lethal violence, understandably, was covered extensively in national and local media outlets. Yet, much of this coverage lacked critical context. While the increase in murders was significant, the overall murder rate remained far below its peak in the 1980s and 90s.
6. In many large cities, the decline in the murder rate is even more pronounced.
Year-to-date murders have declined 40% in Minneapolis, 28% in Atlanta, 26% in Los Angeles, and 18% in Baltimore.
But local coverage of these declines has been sparse or non-existent.
annie gray@juddlegum
Pardon me please if I'm missing part of the story, but do you know of any theories about why the murder rate is declining?
Pardon me please if I'm missing part of the story, but do you know of any theories about why the murder rate is declining?
The Mïghty Kräcken@snooze_cat @juddlegum One theory is that there is less lead in the environment. Lead does bad things to the human brain.
@Klaxun @juddlegum
Right, I tend to forget about leaded gas. Awful for the children especially. I worked with a program that tracked blood lead results related to workplaces, and it's still a big problem in some fields.
Right, I tend to forget about leaded gas. Awful for the children especially. I worked with a program that tracked blood lead results related to workplaces, and it's still a big problem in some fields.
@snooze_cat @juddlegum mind if I ask what fields is it a problem in?
@Klaxun @juddlegum
People who work in car radiator shops or deal with battery recycling can be exposed to high levels. Also target ranges.
People who work in car radiator shops or deal with battery recycling can be exposed to high levels. Also target ranges.
@snooze_cat @juddlegum those are my last three jobs, and I currently sell fishing weights. Should I be worried?
@Klaxun @juddlegum
Not if you wash your hands before eating/smoking and change to clean clothes and shoes before leaving work to protect your family. Workplace should pay for a blood test to check your level. If it's over 5 (used to be 10), they'll report it to the state (in WA, at least) who will send you information about avoiding exposure. If you correct the exposure, your level should gradually decrease over time.
Not if you wash your hands before eating/smoking and change to clean clothes and shoes before leaving work to protect your family. Workplace should pay for a blood test to check your level. If it's over 5 (used to be 10), they'll report it to the state (in WA, at least) who will send you information about avoiding exposure. If you correct the exposure, your level should gradually decrease over time.
@Klaxun @juddlegum
You're so welcome! I sure enjoyed being involved in the workplace safety field. Love helping people.
You're so welcome! I sure enjoyed being involved in the workplace safety field. Love helping people.
John Bell 🇺🇦🇪🇺🔸🕷️🏴@snooze_cat @Klaxun @juddlegum wiki reference here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead–crime_hypothesis
