Jesse ArnoldJun 18, 2023
Carl T. Bergstrom

It's not religion that is driving the resurgent moral panic about LBGTQ people in the USA. You don't get a 15% shift beliefs in a year due to growing religious sentiment.

It's cynical opportunists trying to ride to power on populist sentiment by delegating and demonizing an outgroup.

Fuck every one of them.

Jun 18, 2023 at 2:48amWeb
Show threadCarl T. BergstromJun 18, 2023
I am legit baffled about the decline in acceptance among democrats. Any ideas what is going on here?
Show threadThaiis Thei 𓁟Jun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom Maybe a bunch of people who were moderate repbs have gone democrat because GOP fascism. They would retain their anti LGBT ideas.
Show threadHelgi CrookehorneJun 18, 2023
@Oozenet @ct_bergstrom I read one interesting article, FDR once led investigation on gay activity in the Navy, and some people got 20 to 30 years in jail for amorality
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/fdrs-gay-entrapment-sting/
“I did it for the uplift of humanity and the Navy”: FDR's Gay Sex-Entrapment Sting

Sherry Zane sheds light on a dark covert operation that targeted homosexual Navy men.

The MIT Press Reader
Show threadJoe ❌👑Jun 18, 2023
@Oozenet @ct_bergstrom I think that this is the most likely answer. Sometimes people forget that party identity is not fixed.
Show threadDave RandJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom could just be noise - looks like a straight trend line would fit the data pretty well?
Show threadCarl T. BergstromJun 18, 2023

@Drand Could be. It's a shit article – best as I can tell, they never tell us the sample size or margin of error, and the raw data are percentages rather than counts.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/507230/fewer-say-sex-relations-morally-acceptable.aspx

Show threadDavid SacerdoteJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom @Drand Sample size and margin of error are described in a separate document: https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/507239/230619MoralIssues.pdf
Show threadRufus T FireflyJun 18, 2023
@dsacer @ct_bergstrom @Drand
I wonder if this poll was done on commission and if so, who commissioned it?
Show threadJollyJun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom @Drand

They give the sample size, and MOE in the pdf linked at the end of the article.

1011 respondents, +- 4%

This seems like noise to me.

Show threadThomas LumleyJun 18, 2023
@jolly @ct_bergstrom @Drand that's for the whole sample. Within Democrats it's more like 7% -- they report only 195 self-identified Democrats answering that question if you look at the full tables https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/507239/230619MoralIssues.pdf
Show threadOuteastJun 18, 2023
@jolly @ct_bergstrom @Drand Yeah, it's tempting to look for alternative hypotheses like moderate Rs re-identifying as Ds or bleed-over from the trans "debate", but noise has to be the null hypothesis and looking at previous year-on-year fluctuations, it's almost certainly a sufficient explanation. I believe GPSS is highly regarded as a long-term trend monitor but you can literally see the YoY noise - if there is a real change in the trend it'll emerge over further years.
Show threadequinoJun 19, 2023
@jolly @ct_bergstrom @Drand
In the first place 1k respondents seem so low
Show threadRob HoneycuttJun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom

There's a certain percentage that are always "dupable."

Show threadbdonnellyJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom It’s the trans issue, and the way the GOP has been using it as a vector once they lost the gay marriage issue and the overall acceptance of gays. Believe me the “do you want a man in a dress in the bathroom with your daughter” does some lizard brain shit to a whole swath of dumbshit independent normie voters
Show threadbdonnellyJun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom That plus “trans competing in gender assigned sports”; and the angle of protecting young children from evil trans acceptance/evil doctors looking to mutilate genitals or whatever body horror way they frame it.

All of those angles are easy attack vectors for them, let’s them reframe the issue away from individual rights to the standard “must protect children/families” now that no one is actually marrying horses

Show threadC. E. M. HendersonJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom it’s only a bit - just statistical variance probably? It dips and goes back up several times in the chart history.
Show threadArthur WyattJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom NY Times and The Atlantic.
Show threadChris PalmerJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom there's always a few people out there that identify as Democrats or independents for historical or family reasons but have voted Republican for the last 15 years, and vice versa.
Show threadClaraJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom sampling bias? I can say, after the couple fake surveys that ended in asking for donations to police support funds, I'm less likely to respond to those surveys, and I'm sure I'm not the only one, so the ones left responding are the coffee grinds at the bottom of the cup.
Show threadJohn S. WilkinsJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom I believe it is because moral values are acquired from ersatz authority figures, such as but not exclusively religious leaders, and are not the result of deep reflection for most people. Without being evolutionary psychological here, we are inclined to adopt the values of our community because to not do that is to risk ostracism and expulsion. Ideological purity is a myth.
Show threadPaul CantrellJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom
I always figure that ~5% of people in any public poll with party ID simply aren’t categorized meaningfully — “Democrats” who voted for Trump both times, “Independents” who will never not vote for the marijuana legalization party candidate, people who have no contact with the news or public discourse and live in their apartment filled with nothing but collectible plates and pet rabbits, etc.
Show threadGreg WellmanJun 18, 2023
@inthehands @ct_bergstrom This, plus people who lie to pollsters (particularly about party ID) for lulz.
Show threadDavid ColburnJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom I think Perry Bacon Jr. makes an important point here, and it's a huge problem. Moderate Dems in "blue america" have little direct contact with fascists, but do have direct contact with things they find annoying or uncomfortable like being corrected about pronouns or whatever, and they react by turning against what they perceive as "wokism" and "cancel culture."
https://wapo.st/3Neat8D (Gift link.)
CNN’s Chris Licht showed the problem with anti-woke centrism

Anti-woke centrism is increasingly prominent in media and politics, particularly among White men who live on the coasts and don’t identify as conservatives.

The Washington Post
Show threadmaiamaiaJul 14, 2023
@colburn @ct_bergstrom let's be blunt. All that stuff is young people, so it's done with the typical self-righteous dictatorial nagging of youth. That's why it irritates everybody. Older people think: "I can't remember your name or your face but I have to remember your arbitrary choice of pronouns? What you do doesn't matter, you could be the kindest most helpful person on the planet, but if you say something the young disapprove of, they'll try to make sure you never earn money again? Nasty."
Show threadEhudJun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom

One thing that I find important to keep in mind when looking at trends in opinions of self-identifying Republicans and Democrats in this period is that moderate Republicans stopped identifying as Republican, some even switching over to Democrat.

Show threadKathy E. Gill 🇺🇦Jun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom

Carl, what’s the MOE?

Show threadCarl T. BergstromJun 18, 2023
@kegill Not listed In article or in the raw data. But someone found it — see replies. 4%.
Show threadtoxtethogradyJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom I'm guessing some of the black Democrats are evangelical, and we know about churches and alternate lifestyles...
Show threadAlanJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom the anti lgbt campaigns are designed to pry at fault lines with specific wording to generate fear. To paraphrase PT Barnum: Some of the people can be fooled some of the time.
Show threadAnsel HalliburtonJun 21, 2023
@ct_bergstrom Boomers who can’t think for themselves anymore.
Show threadBrian DearJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom It is so tedious, how fascists have to go after and demonize and attack and marginalize whatever minority group resonates best (I'm sure they do market research) to rile up the unthinking bigot rabble. So fucking tedious.
Show threadcostrikeJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom the next year is going to be pure hell.
Show threadbdonnellyJun 18, 2023
@costrike @ct_bergstrom It really will be. And I’m amazed that pretty much all the same people who are telling me that I need to relax and stop overreacting are the same people in 2016 who said the same thing to me when I tried to tell them Trump had a good shot to win.
Show threadJason Petersen (he)Jun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom by that trend it looks like election years with 2020 as the odd one out?

Maybe “you all pushed too hard and it hurt us pipe the fuck down” sentiment among the lib-brained who believe these are bargaining chips and not things actual good people axiomatically support?

Show threadNihl L'AmasJun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom Joe Manchin is a "democrat", so there's that explanation.

But the drop isn't more extreme than several previous changes, so based on that history maybe we are looking at the margin of error.

3rd possibility (especially since the D % was never 100), maybe some of the previous "yeses" were highly apathetic and only offered as a sort of shrug.

Show threadNihl L'AmasJun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom
The apathy possibility also rides along with changes in outward religious sentiment. It's always weird to find out how little some people have actually thought/read about a major subject. If the pastor hasn't ranted about it, they don't know how much they're supposed to hate it.

And of course all surveys are really only telling us the answer to "What would people say about _____ if someone taking a survey asked them?"

Show threadJonathan Kamens 86 47Jun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom There are a lot of liberals who are/have been closeted bigots when it comes to LGBTQ+ stuff in general and I suspect the T in particular. They went along with tolerance and acceptance when people who didn't were more ostracized, but now that TERFs and the fascist trans panic have moved the Overton window, intolerant liberals are more comfortable being honest about their intolerance.
Show threadFalcon DarkstarJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom words fail me when I try to describe what I think about someone having an opinion on whether or not it is moral for me to feel as I do toward certain people and do certain things with my own body.
Show threadAdamas NemesisJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom Indeed.
Show threadMaia Kahlke LorentzenJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom @tanyakaroli a lot of it is driven and financed by the anti-gender movement, and they are religious, so it does play a role.
Show threadNicole ParsonsJun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom

#TranslatedFromTheRepublican

"Republican billionaire donors are courting foreign despots like Putin, milking OPEC oil kleptocrats like Mohammed bin Salman, and inciting religious bigots to end American democracy.

And keep frying the planet."

The civil rights of women and trans are being sold to buy the votes of Catholics, Mormons, and evangelicals.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/why-is-the-gop-escalating-attacks-on-trans-rights-experts-say-the-goal-is-to-make-sure-evangelicals-vote

https://americanindependent.com/dark-money-conservative-anti-trans-movement/

https://newrepublic.com/post/173747/republicans-winning-war-lgbtq-rights

https://medium.com/perceive-more/god-of-hate-a-brief-history-of-transphobia-in-british-evangelicalism-92512d15f94c

https://apnews.com/article/sports-texas-pennsylvania-campaigns-elections-5bb0f7fb8c162d9f4da5c935271bc255

Why is the GOP escalating attacks on trans rights? Experts say the goal is to make sure evangelicals vote

The recent blitz of anti-trans bills may not align with what many Republicans believe, but party lawmakers pursue them on behalf of their most important interest group.

PBS News
Show threadAcer DissectumJun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom

Please start opening up to genuine concerns. Do you want to wait until no one born female ever wins a sporting event and even further damage is done to women before you will consider there we need to find better solutions. It is not bigotry, there are issues and just getting angry slows progress.

Show threadclacke: exhausted pixie dream boy 🇸🇪🇭🇰💙💛Jun 18, 2023

@Acer_dissectum That extreme scenario seems to:
1. Not give athletes enough credit
2. Not give cis women enough credit
3. Exaggerate the rate of trans people and trans athletes

I'm on the fence on the athlete question and I think it's complicated, but this kind of hyperbole pushes me in the "oh fuck it, just allow it if for no other reason than to piss of the bigots among the critics" direction.

@ct_bergstrom

Show threadAcer DissectumAug 8, 2023
@clacke @ct_bergstrom okay then let's just have unisex sports then.
Show threadKanaMaunaJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom
Seems ominous that there's a matching big shift in favor of the death penalty.
Show threadEthanRDoesMCJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom I have felt that sharp drop. It’s been just this year. I was concerned that I might be… being dramatic, but no, this graph confirms it. Where is this sentiment coming from?
Show threadPablo MartiniJun 18, 2023

@ct_bergstrom Fascists.
The old tale they came for the etc.
Ironic link below!

https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/martin-niemoeller-first-they-came-for-the-socialists

Martin Niemöller: "First they came for the Socialists..." | Holocaust Encyclopedia

Learn about the origins and legacy of Pastor Martin Niemöller's famous postwar words, “First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out…”

Holocaust Encyclopedia
Show threadDrArtAnalyticsJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom
Spot on analysis. So sad that somany are ready to fall for it 😢
@mark
Show threadclacke: exhausted pixie dream boy 🇸🇪🇭🇰💙💛Jun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom Religion is a fulcrum, but someone is pushing the lever. And religion is not the only aspect.
Show threadtoxtethogradyJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom Notice that this has only taken hold in the Republican Party. Amazingly, independents are even more likely to say LGBTQ+ is acceptable. Maybe because they're more open-minded to the thought of alternatives...
Show threadDr. Scott FordJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom The recent rhetoric has literally set us all back 10 years. Further proof that Republicans are the party of the past, not the future.
Show threadRebecca SegersJun 18, 2023
@ct_bergstrom I am a Presbyterian pastor whose church supports LGBTQ+ rights and equality. We deactivated our Twitter account bc of decisions made not to protect our trans siblings on that site and we speak and act as a congregation to promote equality and love for and toward all. www.thirdpresbyterian.org #pride #pcusa #morelight