LaffyU.S. to send #nuclear submarines in new pledge to protect #SouthKorea from North's threats
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴Having talked about gut feelings today:
A dismal idea. I will not only provoke the North Korean, but also the Chinese leader, who is probably still choking on the idea of the future delivery of #US #nuclear
#submarines to #Australia.
Subs seem to me the politically must inappropriate option. An aircraft carrier would have sent a very strong signal as well.
mochaandmuses 😈@HistoPol @GottaLaff It depends on the message. If you want to say, "We're right here" you send an Aircraft Carrier. If you want to send "We're here but you can't see us" then a submarine.
Pragmatically, The sub makes more sense as Aircraft carriers do not operate alone.To send an aircraft carrier means to send a naval battle group which can be at minimum 10 vessels plus support craft. That would be extremely provocative. With a submarine, it can operate on it's own from much longer, doesn't need support vessels and can be easily switched out for tours of duty.
Pragmatically, The sub makes more sense as Aircraft carriers do not operate alone.To send an aircraft carrier means to send a naval battle group which can be at minimum 10 vessels plus support craft. That would be extremely provocative. With a submarine, it can operate on it's own from much longer, doesn't need support vessels and can be easily switched out for tours of duty.
@itwasntme223
Thanks for this introspective.
I am not a naval strategist.
Alas (or fortunately;)), I do not know Kim Jong-il.
What is more threatening?--A threat that you can see or one that you cannot see and that you can never be sure about where exactly it is?
One thing is sure, a nuclear submarine with its "almost unlimited" energy supply can strike anywhere at any time (within the corresponding missile range...
... An #aircraft #carrier would need to be moved into position openly, in contrast.
Now, of course, an aircraft carrier has a lot more #firepower (unless #nuclear #missiles are used) than a small #submarine. However, if I were Kim, I'd deal more easily with the visible than with the invisible enemy, larger provocation or not.
Let's hope I am wrong, though, and that #Xi in particular will not use the sub as a pretext to increase the heat on #Taiwan, which is what...,
@HistoPol @GottaLaff I completely understand what your point but we also have to look at the fact that such a move may make the when days instead of months or years.
I detest the #russian and #chinese governments but i would not want to risk the lives of everyone in that theater on a vague future threat.
Political theater is not an easy game and there is never a correct answer. lol
I detest the #russian and #chinese governments but i would not want to risk the lives of everyone in that theater on a vague future threat.
Political theater is not an easy game and there is never a correct answer. lol
(1/n)
I don't see the invasion threat as either vague or far-distant.
My mental model/scenario is chiefly based on these six points:
1) Xi's profile
2) Chinese history and current tendencies
3) India
4) Arms deals
5) Europe
6) Cyberwarfare
1) #Xi will *never* back down from the "#OneChina" policy, though it is no "reunification," as their false narrative goes. It is supposed to be his legacy.
2) #Chinese #Nationalists are already openly...
(2/n)
... calling for the reincorporation of formerly #Chinese territory around #Vladivostok. (I do see a tripartite dissolution of the #Russian Federation as highly likely, one the remainder of the formerly proud #Soviet Army has spent itself in #ukraine
3) #India, a potential threat, has been gradually and successfully encircled (https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110181439520474931).
4) Delivery of the #nuclear #subs to #Australia will significantly shift the power in the #Pacific...
(3/n)
...dates can be brought forward, as we have seen with #Ukraine. So, the earliest imaginable date from #Xi's perspective plus at least a year or so (#Ukraine experience of a failed #Blitzkrieg) will be his ultimate deadline.
(PS: Maybe someone from the naval defense industry can tell me his/her stance...
(4/n)
...on when that delivery date would be`)
5) Europe: Incompetencies such as #Macron's recent stunt in #China* can bring this date forward, as can obvious delivery-chain failures in the #US and #Europe for #ammunitions and #weapons in the #Ukraine theater.
#China is already the biggest winner of the #WarInUkraine:
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110181464532828425
...
(5/6)
...
6) #Cyberwarfare in #China and abroad: #Xi has successfully taken control of the internet in China (#GreatFirewallOfChina) and can now even control the narrative in all media. Furthermore, the strategic investment in #Twitter gives it clout in the still prominent #SocialMedia platform.
(see my older threads).
And there are other issues, like China profiting from the #EnergyWars, the successor to its #RoadAndBelt initiative, etc., but this is simply...
(6/6)
...not an adequate platform (format) for this multi-dimensional topic.