The thing I find most suspicious/fishy/smelly about all the current hype around Stable Diffusion and ChatGPT is that it follows, as night follows day, about six months after the bottom dropped out of the cryptocurrency scam bubble.

This is not a coincidence.

Hucksters are chasing the sweet VC/private equity money that has been flushed out of crypto, and AI is the new hotness all of a sudden.

If you're thinking about investing now? Don't: it's too late and you'll be the target of a grift.

Update from comments: I'm SURE it's just a coincidence that training neural networks and mining cryptocurrencies are both applications that benefit from very large arrays of GPUs.

If *I* was a VC I'd be hiring complexity theory nerds to figure out what areas of research are promising once you have Yottaflops of numerical processing power available, then place bets on AMD, Nvidia, and (maybe) Intel going there and start seeding the field and hiring PR firms.

@cstross
I know it makes for a not too satisfying story, but linear algebra is as linear algebra does.

General purpose CPU makers gave up, but the craving for parallel computation is still here...

@cstross I am going to do some very advanced mathematics and try to open an interdimensional portal. Put all that hardware to really good use.

@cstross that's an interesting theory and I expect some do that, but I don't assume that's the real driver for either. I can't back that up, but I'm skeptical of simple, what many would like to believe takes.

What I know is that outside the VC area more promising, ethically driven technology devt has been going on under the radar since before either and am hopeful one of these will start to come together soon. No GPU's needed, designed for simple legacy h/w and harness unused resources.

@cstross Did you see the guys using NAND to do training instead of GPUs?

@cstross NN hardware reqs are way harder than crypto where they only need to communicate when someone finds a winning hash - training huge NNs needs a *ton *of communication bandwidth both amongst the GPUs and between the GPUs and storage, network/interconnect is as important as compute

The GPUs get fast enough they can't be fed training data or model updates fast enough to actually keep them busy and you can't really effectively use more/better GPUs til you upgrade the interconnects

@cstross in this light its pretty clear why acquiring Mellanox made sense for Nvidia but there's also a lot of built in demand for many Broadcom products as this stuff takes off as well.
Cryptocurrency miners are leading the next stage of AI

Cryptocurrency miners are converting their mining rigs to facilitate AI processing, and the implications could be both legal and financial.

Cointelegraph
@cstross Not sure they do the same sort of linear algebra. E.g., looking at the voice transcription engine, it uses 8-bit FP, and ML in general uses a lot of 16-bit FP. Versus, crypto, that tends integer, and finite fields (e.g. carryless multiply). I don''t know for sure that 16-bit FP is adequate for traditional graphics, either.
@dr2chase @cstross been a while since i was working adjacent to this space, but i vaguely recall a thesis result showing that the training problem was NP complete. don't know if that result held up though.

@dr2chase @cstross
ASIC based miners won't be able to pivot

GPU mining cloud services such as HIVE and Hub 8 have already been looking into AI as a possible side hustle

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2022/09/06/ethereum-miners-eye-cloud-ai-to-repurpose-equipment-that-the-merge-will-make-obsolete/

Ethereum Miners Eye Cloud, AI To Repurpose Equipment That The Merge Will Make Obsolete

Mining of alternative proof-of-work coins will likely remain profitable only for those with access to cheap energy.

Forbes
@cstross Brilliant. I mean, what could possibly go wrong…?

@cstross I sometimes do reviews of research proposals.

I have not much liked having to determine if the proposed budgets for computing are reasonable or not because of cryptocurrency scammers running up the GPU prices or buying up entire production lines.

I will not like it if "AI" scammers do the same thing.

@michael_w_busch The "AI scammers" at least have a real product with *some* tangible utility, even if it's about as profitable as pets.com was, back in the day.
@cstross @michael_w_busch
That's like saying the British railway mania left behind a transport backbone that has since served the public good unlike the Dutch tulip bubble, yet it was the former that bankrupted and destroyed the lives of many more people when the bubble inevitably burst
https://youtu.be/D8d6cffG5kk
#TulipMania #RailwayMania #Bubble #BoomBust
Tulip Bulbs Bored Apes & Bubbles

YouTube
@cstross "give us money to gamble by guessing random numbers ever-more-inefficiently" was perhaps a more honest con.
ChatGPT might bring about another GPU shortage - sooner than you might expect

Not again!

TechRadar

@cstross VCs have been investing in AI startups for years now - I know because I’ve worked at them for the past 5 years.

What you’re seeing is hype followers, grifters, and the VCs that fall into those first two categories glomming on to the next thing, which is just a questionable, exceptionally resource-hogging subset of AI, not AI as a whole.

@cstross I have a modestly different take on this: It's not that cryptocurrencies were the first such grift, it's that *every* wave of innovation in the last twenty years have a ... Festival.. of people hyping and puffing it.

The venture capital industry took a page from a dark version of Alan Kay's "to predict the future you must first invent it".

They have created a world where the first derivative of capital flows is truth, and that's how they invent.

@cstross

It's interesting to set the wayback machine to 2005 where you see the VCs of today discovered the wonders of PR:

http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html

With social media, the PR has detached from just big firms and turned into a sort of self-pleasuring ball of influence peddling that grew under years of free money into something that wanders around looking for something to latch onto.

The wonder of crypto is that it was basically a complete fraud and hype took it so far.

The Submarine

@cstross This is a very good point. I’ve sometimes gotten annoyed by the comparison between neural networks and crypto, because the former actually has some utility (if used ethically and responsibly) while the latter is utterly pointless and destructive… but from an investment/financial standpoint, they’re exactly the same sort of hype bubbles.
@glindsey Given that much of what passes for "journalism" these days is just stenography copying from press-releases, I suspect the PR firms are working overtime to push AI. Things will tick along for a while but there's going to be a crash, sooner rather than later: my view is that the Bing/ChatGPT fiasco is just a harbinger of the way deep learning models are going to be discredited in the public eye in about 1-3 years' time (The cryptocurrency bubble lasted a bit over a decade in contrast).
TechCrunch is part of the Yahoo family of brands

@dr2chase @glindsey In retrospect, Martin Shkreli was just ahead of the curve.

(If Ian Fleming was alive today he'd have a field day.)

@cstross @glindsey
What's most disappointing to me is the non-role of the press in answering that Sam Altman question -- it just occurred to me, "where's he from?" and lo, search engines provide.
@dr2chase @cstross They provide FOR NOW, but once we have hallucinating AIs doing it all for us, it will happily and confidently tell you that he’s the guy that directed “M*A*S*H”

@dr2chase @cstross @glindsey

The #OpenAI founders also share the same ideology as #FTX founder #SBF
https://youtu.be/Lm0vHQYKI-Y
#EffectiveAltruism #Longtermism #cryptoscammers

"Dario Amodei, then research director at OpenAI...Amodei has since left OpenAl to co-found Anthropic...an “AI safety and research company.”... received... funding from other EA adherents, including Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of recently collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX"
https://techpolicy.press/chatgpt-safety-in-artificial-intelligence-and-elon-musk/

The Rich Have Their Own Ethics: Effective Altruism & the Crypto Crash (ft. F1nn5ter)

YouTube
@bornach @dr2chase @glindsey Speaking as an SF writer who hung out on the EXTROPY-L mailing list in the early 90s, none of the LessWrong bullshit is remotely surprising to me.
@cstross I totally agree. For me, one of the neat things about NNs is precisely that they *do* get things wrong — often. I see their hallucinations as a feature, not a bug; a tool that could truly be used to help creativity and inspire ideas (setting aside the problematic training data for now). But these folks want to market and use them as all-knowing infallible oracles, and that’s just not gonna happen. The instant the advice of one of these NNs gets someone killed, the bubble will implode.
@cstross @glindsey similar to the way tesla is chasing L5 autopilot to the point of public endangerment not for any reason related to the consumer market, but to be the vendor that lets every shipping and delivery fleet in the world replace all their drivers.

@glindsey @cstross There are some interesting uses to cryptocurrencies.

The thing is, those uses are better served by other better & simpler designs (#GNUTaler > bitcoin for basically all purposes especially privacy), and don't lend themselves well to grifting. So you won't see them.

@cstross I'd be much wealthier had I fewer scruples and much less concern about ethics.
@cstross at least it’s keeping the carpetbaggers from latching onto the fediverse and enshittifying it with their grifts
@cstross i want to tinfoil hat this by introducing
"what if there's an AI out there that's influencing investment into AI to improve itself"

@jnavarra @cstross Charlie pointed out at 34C3 that capital-C Corporations *are* the paperclip AIs that AI ethicists have warned us about.

They have ostensible goals (provide services/products), proxy goals (shareholder value) and internal goals (whatever management currently chases), none of which neccesarily align with human values or even continued human existence. The internal workings are utterly incomprehensible. They're also playing the AI Box experiment (corporate laws) *and we lost*.

@martok @jnavarra

Was it *this* argument, by any chance?

Enquiring minds want to know ...

@cstross @jnavarra Something close, at least, to the best of my memory.

Wouldn't even be surprised if it was one of your blog posts, honestly... (was it?)

Here's two more recent articles that make the point in more space than my instance gives me:
(2017) https://patternsofmeaning.com/2017/11/30/ai-has-already-taken-over-its-called-the-corporation/
(2020) https://indica.medium.com/how-ai-already-rules-the-world-3b170031b9ba

Point being: we don't need computer AI to get screwed over by an AI.

@martok @jnavarra Did you even look at the link I sent you? Or read as far as the date and the author's name?
@cstross Oh. I don't see a link, thought that was referring to my imprecise language. Looks like this to me, both on my instance and on yours:

@cstross YES! That was it! I did see your Congress keynote.

And now I'm just a teensy bit embarrassed.

Being able to actually remember sources of ideas would be a pretty neat superpower.

@martok @cstross Especially for an LLM based search engine

@martok @jnavarra

Pretty sure you read @cstross himself on that subject

@cstross Indeed. I’ll stick to my super boring index funds.

@cstross

It's probably a just a coincidence that both of these are applications that benefit from buying lots of GPUs.

@suetanvil @cstross And that both are pushed heavily by the same group of tech-fascists.
@schrotthaufen @suetanvil Fascism has always been the mailed gauntlet sheathing the Invisible Hand of market forces.

@suetanvil @cstross We've badly underestimated the sheer manipulativeness of Nvidia.

"Yes, Jim, I've read your confidential internal memo that says that cryptocurrency and AI are going to pretty much destroy civilization, and I can't argue with your conclusions. But I have to remind you that we have a fiduciary duty to our shareholders ..."

@angusm @suetanvil You say that like it's a joke, but Exxon, BP, Shell, and etc. did *exactly* that. As did BAT, Philip Morris, and the other tobacco companies before them. Profit regardless of genocide.

@cstross @angusm @suetanvil

For readers of this thread, Naomi Oreskes' book "Merchants of Doubt" details exactly how these people operate. With the tobacco and FF companies it was literally the same people doing the work for both.

@cstross @angusm

To be clear, my only question is whether it's an organized plan or just a bunch of short-sighted selfish actors with a common goal.

@suetanvil @angusm When the same PR firms handle multiple clients in the same industry with overlapping campaigns, it's hard to say where coincidence ends and conspiracy begins. Most likely because it lends plausible deniability to the kind of conspiracy that you can't prove without having mikes-on-lapels for at some of the right games of golf. In other words nothing in writing, just an agreed high level strategy.
@angusm One might even say their behavior has been... predictably invidious.

@suetanvil @cstross The abso-fucking-lutely depressing thing about this is that it is fucking obvious for anyone with a minimum of skepticism about the workings of investment fads* and it's not conspiracy theory territory because all of the regular vaporware suspects are not even covering their bullshit anymore.

*Bubbles