Baratunde

“If NASA is Amtrak in space, then SpaceX is the Fyre Festival with rockets, a glamorous effort led by a hype man who promises that every logistical problem will melt away if we can just get people to the destination.”

#BARS! I’m reading this piece making the case against human exploration of #Mars, and it’s crushing my childhood dreams and also making too much sense. This line above though! Have you read the piece?

https://idlewords.com/2023/1/why_not_mars.htm

#space #nasa #spaceexploration

Why Not Mars (Idle Words)

Jan 28, 2023 at 11:28pmMastodon for iOS
Show threadBrian DearJan 28, 2023
@baratunde Fyre was vaporware. SpaceX is FedX of space. The very opposite of vaporware. Forget Musk and his Mars bs; SpaceX is quite effectively run by Gwynne Shotwell. She makes it all happen and she's a superstar. I'm typing this from a computer connected to a router connected to a little flat dish on the roof that's talkin' at 80mbps to a satellite put there by one of those Falcon9s. Nobody else would sell us decent internet until SpaceX came along and offered it to rural New Mexicans.
Show threadmathewJan 29, 2023

@baratunde @brianstorms You’re aware that the “decent Internet” you’re getting is unsustainable by SpaceX’s own figures, right? Will you be as happy when it slows down dramatically or gets 5x as expensive?

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/21/spacexs-starlink-has-a-price-problem/

SpaceX's Starlink Has a Price Problem

It also has a solution: Charge more for Starlink service.

The Motley Fool
Show threadBrian DearJan 29, 2023
@mathew @baratunde Nope, obviously. If it got 5X as expensive it'd be $550/month which um, seems unlikely and certainly would be a showstopper for approximately 100% of customers. I figure the inevitable direction that they'll at least try to go in is, offer content and services -- music/tv/movie streaming for example, as well as bandwidth in vehicles, trains, etc (they're already selling to cruise ships and planes, they could do cargo ships too). Oh, and they blot out the sky w/ satellites.😂
Show threadmathewJan 29, 2023
@brianstorms @baratunde As the article points out, the commercial offering is already $550 a month for the same service, and they’re not making money on that. So enjoy it while they’re selling it to you at way below cost.
Show threadBrian DearJan 29, 2023
@mathew @baratunde Your deep concerns for how much I spend per month on my internet service provider, as well as your bringing to my attention the questionable long-term business viability of said internet service provider, are most gratefully appreciated. Good day to you.
Show threadbassplayerJan 29, 2023
@brianstorms @baratunde Shotwell is doing a great job. Falcon 9 launches are utterly commonplace and boring. SpaceX has cornered the market on access to Leo. As an engineer I am in awe of the people that made rockets which land themselves. Or would you rather go back to single use rockets that are basically jobs programs. As for SL, who knows but like reusable rockets there are many who are trying to copy it.
Show threadK`TetchJan 30, 2023
@brianstorms @baratunde shotwell is crushing it right now.
But when the sad E crashes and burns twitter to the ground, what then? Boring is dead, tesla is public and legal stuff is ongoing there over his actions, which leaves spacex where he WILL be desperate to prove he's not a loser.
Also, you want rural internet, talk to your reps, they're the ones stopping it.starlinks only good for maybe 700k people in the US. There's 15m unserved.
Show threadBrian DearJan 30, 2023
@ktetch @baratunde Heh. Talk to legislators. Yeah. Been there, done that. In New Mexico, you don’t talk to legislators, you show them money.
Show threadEvan EngelJan 29, 2023

@baratunde a good follow up, same topic

https://thenewinquiry.com/manifesto-of-the-committee-to-abolish-outer-space/

Manifesto of the Committee to Abolish Outer Space

There’s nothing there already

The New Inquiry
Show threaddv_on_mastodonJan 29, 2023
@baratunde yes, have read this piece, and agree of the "wow, this makes a lot of sense" nature of its arguments. Have been waiting impatiently for the promised follow up blog entry, which is overdue. Would appreciate to hear a rebuttal of any of the points made by somebody with a good background (but again: damn, this essay just makes so much sense).
Show threadBaratundeJan 29, 2023
@dv_on_mastadon me too! I’m here for a real debate
Show threadTJJan 29, 2023
@baratunde what a wonderful article - insightful and thoughtful points really clearly and humorously presented!
Show threadLayla LowJan 29, 2023

@baratunde @BlackAzizAnansi Now I have! Good find. I tend to agree, scope it out with robots then go to space Shangri-La if it’s out there.

“Once you get beyond “rocket factory go brrrrr,” there is no plan, just a familiar fog of Musky woo.” 🤣🤣

Show threadBynkiiJan 29, 2023
@baratunde @BlackAzizAnansi it’s a really good piece
Show threadNick has moved to MathstodonJan 29, 2023
@baratunde I thought this Kurzgesagt video did a decent job of laying out many of the difficulties of long-term habitation on Mars, though it still seems to take the attitude that it would be worthwhile on a long enough time scale.
https://youtu.be/uqKGREZs6-w
Building a Marsbase is a Horrible Idea: Let’s do it!

YouTube
Show threadAlbert Kinng Jan 29, 2023
@baratunde who will trust the neurolink?
Show threadMary Clark Jan 29, 2023
@baratunde Some think there's rare minerals and other elements that can be extracted, that is, mined, for purposes on Earth. That's what is driving Musk and SpaceX.
Show threadSuzanne PaleyJan 29, 2023
@Mclark @baratunde You don't need humans there for that.
Show threadKraken MareJan 29, 2023
@Mclark @baratunde I mean, maybe, but there's nothing we couldn't mine on Earth, and if in a couple of decades, we want cheaper less polluting metals, we can avoid Mars entirely with asteroid mining: https://youtu.be/y8XvQNt26KI
Unlimited Resources From Space – Asteroid Mining

YouTube
Show threadMary Clark Jan 29, 2023
@krakenmare @baratunde We don't know if there's something on Mars that we could use, and companies want to expand their opportunities, so if there's lithium for instance on Mars, they'll want to mine it. Robots could do it. Then there's the mining on Earth which is destructive, and maybe we need to rethink batteries and such.
Show threadSohrabJan 29, 2023
@baratunde saw this piece a few weeks past on @daringfireball. Great read. Was nodding the entire time
Show threadDylan TJan 29, 2023
@baratunde that's a great essay! persuasive, and funny too
Show threadjimrayJan 29, 2023

@baratunde Maciej is an old school web head and brilliant writer. The Alameda-Weehawken burrito tunnel is an annual read for me

https://idlewords.com/2007/04/the_alameda_weehawken_burrito_tunnel.htm

The Alameda-Weehawken Burrito Tunnel (Idle Words)

Show threadBaratundeJan 29, 2023
@jimray OMG THAT WAS HIM??? That piece needs to go in a museum
Show threadjimrayJan 29, 2023
@baratunde right???
Show threadSFborn1940Jan 29, 2023
@baratunde From what I have observed to date, no reason exists for a trip to Mars, unless we want to see what Earth will look like eventually. I prefer to remember Earth as it is, thank you.
Show threadKraken MareJan 29, 2023
@trainman @baratunde I mean it would either be scientific, like the moon landings, or a place for Elon to mistreat workers where they don't have labour laws. An international co-operative space effort like the iss would be great, but if it was at all science oriented, they would steer clear of Mars entirely. (and anything beyond the moon would be decades away)
Show threadBrian SlettenJan 29, 2023

@baratunde You may be interested in @DanielSuarez’s “delta-V” and its about-to-be released follow up “Critical Mass” as dramatizations of the near-term complexity of the NewSpace initiatives. While it is fiction, it is well-researched and made many of these points.

https://www.amazon.com/Delta-v-Daniel-Suarez-ebook/dp/B07FLX8V84/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?crid=1DIA9Q9WEFZP8

Show threadRavi PillalamarriJan 29, 2023
@baratunde really good article
Show threadmekka okereke Jan 29, 2023

@baratunde Good article! Fun read!

Minor nit: the article assumes that the only two viable paths to a (misguided) human powered Mars mission are "NASA" or "SpaceX." But China is the furthest along on a planned human powered Mars mission.

Everyone forgets that China has its own space station, has rockets powerful enough to get to Mars, landed a rover on Mars (Zhurong), and has a human powered Mars mission scheduled for 2033.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XMmTy0UyxBs

China lands its Zhurong rover on Mars - BBC News

YouTube
Show threadBaratundeJan 29, 2023
@mekkaokereke good point bro!
Show threadTody MotmotJan 29, 2023

@baratunde

But with saved costs of $100 billion per Mars mission, maybe we can think of some new, practical dreams that are even more wonderful than those from our childhood? Systems to empower humanity?

Let China get to Mars first, if necessary. As long as we're demonstrating how the ideals of equality and democracy are meant to work, the world will be safer for our choices in the long run.

Show threadKraken MareJan 29, 2023
@baratunde try this on for size: (hoping this hasn't been said already) the focus on Mars is almost singularly because of a mistranslation of Italian astronomer, giovanni schiaparelli's discovery of glacial canals near the poles, much like on our planet. SpaceX focuses on Mars is complete fantasy, nature can't be bought over by fancy graphics. The reason Nasa and other space agencies focus on Mars is it's much easier to get proper scientific funding from career businessmen, and it's relatively easy to get to, compared to much more scientifically interesting places, like the moons of the outer planets, at least half a dozen of which hold subsurface water oceans.
Show threadbassplayerJan 29, 2023

@baratunde This line perfectly describes SLS

"Like the Space Shuttle and Space Station before it, the Mars program would exist in a state of permanent redesign by budget committee until any logic or sense in the original proposal had been wrung out of it"

Public private partnerships are the way otherwise programs can be derailed onto jobs programs for senator's constituents exactly like SLS

Show threadRich Stein (he/him)Jan 29, 2023

@baratunde You might enjoy the whimsical Errol Morris documentary, "Fast, Cheap & Out of Control." At the very least, see this review of the movie, and read the part about pioneering Australian robot expert and MIT professor, Rodney Brooks. His take on space exploration still makes sense many decades after he first stated it. https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/fast-cheap-and-out-of-control-1997

PS—The whole movie is fun and thoughtful in a very quirky way!

Fast, Cheap & Out of Control movie review (1997) | Roger Ebert

Life is a little like lion taming, wouldn't you say? There we are in the cage of life, armed only with a chair and a whip, trying to outsmart the teeth and the claws. If we are smart enough or know the right lore, sometimes we survive, and are applauded.

https://www.rogerebert.com/
Show threadKris SamselJan 29, 2023
@baratunde @nasa Dummies experiment pass the test? REMS & RADS ok? How many radiation belts did they go through. Van Allen belts change. 4 or 5? Amazingly, astronauts did give you that data? Strange…🤔
Show threadLoganJan 29, 2023

@baratunde @jcrabapple if we can get to 2050 or 2100 without destroying our climate and a billion people… I’d still have more optimism and support for a Mars mission…

As of now it’s a NO for me dawg

Show threadK`TetchJan 30, 2023
@baratunde welcome to the crushed dream zone.
I did my degrees in robotics and astrophysics 20 years ago, on the basis of a manned Mars mission around now.
I wanted to be on it.
Alas, at this rate we won't even see it in my lifetime, and I plan to live forever!
Show thread#WikiPartyJan 30, 2023
@baratunde The ISS's "only purpose [is] to teach its creators how to build future spacecraft like it. The ISS crew spend most of their time fixing the machinery that keeps them alive, and when they have a free moment for science, they tend to study the effect of space on themselves."
Show threadQueen of AnxietyJan 30, 2023
@baratunde Honestly crewed space travel still excites me. And the sort of problems they would need to solve to get to Mars are the sort that would need to be solved for any crewed space travel, including out of the solar system. Granted, I don’t think we need to put some sort of time limit on it. I’m fine with it being boring and non-glamorous. I hate Musk and the idea of privatizing space in possibly equal parts.
Show threadQueen of AnxietyJan 30, 2023
@baratunde What funding I would rather see reallocated is our ridiculous military spending. Stop building equipment that gets given to police and start actually solving problems here at home, and I’m happy to let us fritter away billions on space travel, especially if, instead of letting billionaires build their own rockets, we taxed them and used that money to fund everything from healthcare to NASA.
Show threadBrian HawthorneJan 30, 2023

@baratunde Thanks for sharing this thought-provoking article. For me, the key point was:

“And it is hard to overlook that the $93 billion[57] NASA has already spent through 2025 to not land anyone on the Moon would be enough[58] to send probes to every world in the solar system, including moons we know have oceans of liquid water[59] and two entire planetary systems that haven’t been visited since Voyager 2 gave them a quick once-over in the 1980’s.[60]”

Let’s focus on remote exploration.

Show threadDaniel AJ SokolovJan 30, 2023
@baratunde Let the Chinese waste the money on this, so they have less for armament. ;-)
Show threadEnema CowboyJan 30, 2023

Thanks for the insightful article, @baratunde.

The TL;DR for the people who didn't read the article.

1. Humans are nowhere close to solving the life-support challenges for a crewed mission to Mars.

2. International treaties, of which the US is a signatory, currently restrict humans from stepping foot on Mars.

Opinions regarding NASA, SpaceX, or the spirit of exploration and adventure do not change 1 & 2.