dagBLOGPOST
Rejoiners should brace themselves for the United Kingdom to spend a long time outside the European Union
By me, at Substack
https://lawandlore.substack.com/p/rejoiners-should-brace-themselves
Jan Adriaenssens@davidallengreen Sad but rather accurate conclusion, I’m afraid. Especially regarding the UK.
I think an independent Scotland would join the EU before a willing UK could.
BashStKid@verbeeld @davidallengreen @KieronDrake
An independent everything-but-rump England, perhaps.
As the social pressure & anger builds, existing fault lines will start to move, and probably not in an optimal way.
escapadesrpg@verbeeld @davidallengreen I'm afraid that Brexit was also a move to impede any Scottish independence: a referendum would neither be allowed, nor recognised by the major political parties in England. Further, the newly independent state would need to apply for the EU membership and, in the meanwhile, wrangle its economy outside of the UK, negotiate a massive border problem while demonstratung to the EU that its new state meets the legislative and institutional requirements of membership.
Keith Flint's Knitwear@davidallengreen plus the EU is quite happy to be have a constant reminder of all of the benefits of Brexit 'pour encourager les autres'.
AJ Graceson@woodbine @davidallengreen Yes! That was my first thought. Nothing like a real live cautionary tale.
@davidallengreen
Very Sad but very, excuse my French, fucking true. The milk is well and truly spilt. It would be great if we could just discuss and acknowledge the damage caused. We might then be able to build bridges, consensus and a way out of the shit storm we are in. Truth and Reconcillaition - very important.
Very Sad but very, excuse my French, fucking true. The milk is well and truly spilt. It would be great if we could just discuss and acknowledge the damage caused. We might then be able to build bridges, consensus and a way out of the shit storm we are in. Truth and Reconcillaition - very important.
Christine Burns MBE 🏳️⚧️📚⧖@davidallengreen What is perhaps more do-able is to join the Customs Union, and participate like a grown-up in things like the European Space Agency, the sharing of crime intelligence (can’t remember what it’s called), treat Europeans living in Britain with decency, end the absurd hatred of the Court of Justice and, gradually, by degrees, earn back trust. We’ll need to show we can be a rule taker — join the Single Market accepting its rules — and then maybe one day we can be rule MAKERS again
@davidallengreen Oh … and I suspect we’ll have to join the Euro and not insist on having the rest of our exceptionalism back.
Lennard van Otterloo@davidallengreen @christineburns I don’t see any scenario where the UK could qualify within a reasonable time frame (two decades?) for eurozone membership and even then there will be vetoes as eurozone membership is a privilege, not an obligation.
The UK will have to commit to aim for eurozone membership and that will be the last we’ll hear of it. The UK will not qualify and it would be foolish to apply if it would be blocked.
Lazarou Monkey Terror 🚀💙🌈@christineburns @davidallengreen when we grow up, we can be Rule Makers. Not until then.
Karl Stanley@christineburns @davidallengreen why do you care about being a “rule maker”? Who in their right mind would want to be part of an international community where the British make the rules?
Hortorum@davidallengreen To misquote Marx "I wouldn't want to join any club that would have the UK as it presently is, as a member".
Lee Eyres@davidallengreen most would settle for a sensible relationship with the EU, SM would be a big bonus but anything would be an improvement on what’s happening now.
John Robinson@davidallengreen Rejoining the EU would I believe require: 1 A change of electoral system 2 A change of referendum rules 3 A period of at least 5 years from the above happening. It ain’t gonna happen soon, so the next best thing should be aimed for eg SM or CU.
Colin Macleod@davidallengreen "Rejoiners should brace themselves for the United Kingdom to spend a long time outside the European Union" - a depressingly convincing argument 😧 #brexit #brejoin
🇪🇺 #AgainstLies #RichSunakCons@davidallengreen If #KeirStarmer spent his time on rejoining EU, if he was elected as PM, there would be no guarantee that CONs would not try to leave again some time later. For the next 5yrs the focus has to be repairing the damage done and closer relations with EU - w/o joining.
@AgainstLies @davidallengreen that would be an incredibly good political move.
Branding the #selfservatives forever as the #brexit party, which is, after, what they are.
It could even be a chance to move to real democracy.
GeoffSteambuff 💛💙@davidallengreen Sadly correct, as I have averred frequently on FB & Twitter, despite it causing me pain every time, because it is tragic.
Kenneth John Bardsley
Shield Maiden@davidallengreen Not to mention the fact that the last few Tory govs have all made a point of seriously insulting various EU countries, not abiding by actual laws they signed up to with the EU and generally being extremely untrustworthy...who'd want someone like that back on the team eh?
Lassielmr@Judeet88 @davidallengreen doubt the U.K. will ever rejoin. The U.K. will break up before then. A reunified Ireland already a member & Scotland either as a member or part of EEA & EFTA. England needs to find it’s identity in a modern global world. All hues of Gov still have this ‘we’re special’ attitude.
Jill WicksSad but true. The best we can hope for, to start off, would be joining the single market and customs union
We have well and truly burned bridges and shot ourselves in the foot, if I can mix metaphors!
Kasia 
@davidallengreen sad, but honest. some real change must happen in UK first. EU had a lot of cost and trouble because of UKs decision. jumping in and out depending who's in power is not in their interest.
Tanja in the Green@davidallengreen EU country leaders have their own electorates to answer to, the UK just popping in and out of the EU after the disruption and costs incurred would not go down well politically at home.
cpw@davidallengreen I would be skeptical of anything until some sort of notional super super majority could be demonstrated in all the various political spheres: commons, lords, public, devolved assemblies etc etc. To put it as lee and herring once did: you'd need the moon on a stick! Everyone currently in politics in the UK will likely be dead and buried first.
Andrew Thompson@davidallengreen readers in #Scotland 🏴 might reasonably expect to work, or at least to aspire to a shorter timetable. #IndependenceIsNormal #VoluntaryUnion
#IndependenceIsComing
#IndependenceIsComing
IanVery sad but true.
And not a good argument for a union, no longer held together by consent.
@davidallengreen one thing you do not mention is that as and when the UK might come to its senses re “Europe” (in 10 years time?), “Europe” will also have developed. The UK may then be offered an “outer circle” membership around a tighter, more federal core (of say 15-20) willing countries.
musk avoider@davidallengreen You are of curse quite right that rejoining isn't simply filling out a form and authorising a direct debit, but I do think we run the risk of talking ourselves out of seriously asking if we can and should rejoin. Of course the current European leadership is hacked off with us, but times change and a re-committed UK in the EU would be a Good Thing and we should be ready for it.
Paul Weatherall@davidallengreen This is of course undisputed nonsense. The EU as a whole has made it abundantly clear that the UK and / or an independent Scotland will be welcome as members.
keplerniko'Even the fact that 1 January 2023 was the second anniversary of the United Kingdom effectively leaving the European Union, after the transition period, was largely left unremarked by Brexit supporters.'
Maybe just me, but I think that's probably because a huge majority of them claim that 'real Brexit hasn't really happened'.
If they acknowledge either Brexit day or the end of the transition as actual Brexit, they lose control of the narrative and they will lose their unending battle for relevance and influence over the political discourse.
dschulten #FdgoUltras🕯️@davidallengreen I agree. It is a generational project at best. Also note that the strongest electoral force voted for the oven-ready deal. It wasn't a misunderstanding. The decisive electorate wanted and still seems to want Brexit to this day, they don't wish to be part of a political EU. Applying for membership only makes sense if that ever were to change. In which case I would be all for it, because as a German I wish you were part of the EU. Which shows just how much you won the war ;-)
Panic In The Darkroom@davidallengreen I'd accept Scotland to EU if there was any real chance for them to leave the UK. But Boris made sure I'd never like y'all back just like that, unless you go the whole nine yards, even accepting euro and all.
Final Round Player 😷🇪🇺🍸@davidallengreen It's going to be a long and slow process. It starts with voluntary regulatory alignment. Which is then ratified and used as the basis for a new trade agreement.