Thiemo Fetzer

I am a Prof of #Economics at University of Warwick. I am going to talk about a paper on #Brexit as a means of an #introduction. Almost on the same day of the #EUReferendum I started working on that:

"Who Voted for #Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis"

➡️ #Openaccess https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eix012

This was a descriptive paper that makes no claims of #causality. It simply asks whether, based on where you live, we can infer whether and how one voted. In doing so we just characterise...

Nov 13, 2022 at 6:25pmWeb
Show threadThiemo FetzerNov 13, 2022

...systematically what are the #correlates of #Brexit.

The main finding is that the level of the support for #Brexit in the #EUreferendum is best explained by slow moving structural fundamental factors such as #demographics, economic #structure etc., & not #immigration or any other time-varying economic shocks.

But obviously, economic shocks interact with those fundamentals.
But an analysis that looks at a single point in time is not suitable to study the impact that those had. Now the...

Show threadThiemo FetzerNov 13, 2022

...the media picked this up. The paper was downloaded more than 50k times after it showed up in the #UKPolitics #liveblog of #Guardian.

The #Guardian picked out one coefficient among many & claim we found a causal link btw #austerity & #Brexit. I did find this causal link but not in this paper.

So I started to have issues with #traditional #media. They could have consulted us.

Main learning: as an academic we need to explain better & chose wisely when working with media.

Show threadIgor LetinaNov 13, 2022

@fetzert
I've heard from multiple people who talked to the media that their quotes were taken out of context and used to fit the story that the journalist was trying to tell. Even on entirely innocuous topics.

I think the best practice when talking about anything remotely sensitive is to insist on a written interview, so you can release the entire text if you are quoted out of context. Or perhaps recording the interview yourself, so you can transcribe it if necessary.

Show threadThiemo FetzerNov 13, 2022
@IgorLetina Yes in this instance they didnt even ask. I dont engage with certain media at all for that reason. For sth that will come out this week (and on which I spent the past 3 months tirelessly) I was very careful in my choice of media partner. Its a tricky balance between journalistic independence and making sure work does not get misrepresented. I have now a strategy for that but it is still hard.
Show threadSuzi JNov 13, 2022
@fetzert What about all of us voters already residing in the EU? As an aside, I was born in Coventry, where you work. I was very involved in the City Education team. Bonne chance with your research. #BrexitRecession #Brexit #BrexitBreaksMyHeart
Show threadThiemo FetzerNov 13, 2022
@SuziJ Thanks for the kind words. I m working very hard on a very big piece that will come out this coming week. I agree that the UK electoral rules are designed to disenfranchise certain groups which I dont think is good in a healthy democracy, but this is my personal opinion. My research is research that is based on data and champions evidence and rigorous methods. For me this paper taught me a lot in getting better at explaining and being careful with (some) media.
Show threadAdrian WiddowsonNov 13, 2022
@fetzert I blame austerity.