Morning folks, time for my first Mastodon thread (!)
Ahead of the #midterms tomorrow, I want to talk about the tragic politicisation of science in the US.
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly when the Republicans became the anti-science party, but the process probably began in the 1980s, when the Christian right first emerged as a major force in conservative American politics.
Since then, the journey has been smooth and swift, and there is now a stunning partisan divide on confidence in science 😥
It would be easy to dismiss this trend as merely exasperating — a source of irritation at family gatherings — but over the past 18 months, this partisan divide may have cost as many as 60,000 American lives
This is the stark implication of a study by @paulgp and others, which found that since Covid vaccines became widely available, the mortality rate of registered Republicans in Ohio and Florida climbed by 33% during America’s winter Covid wave last year, compared with just 10% among Democrats
Excess death rates were already higher among Republicans before vaccines came online, possibly due to red states taking a more lax stance on social distancing etc, but once vaccines came on line, the gap widened dramatically 📈
And to be clear, this is after adjusting for age, so it can’t be explained by Republicans simply being older on average. This is the result of a party and its voters turning away from science
To be fair, anti-vax attitudes are hardly confined to the US and to Republicans.
People who voted for the populist right-wing AfD party in Germany were also more vaccine-sceptic than most, as were supporters of populist parties in France.
But the breadth and depth of anti-vax attitudes in those countries and parties was far less than what we see with the Republicans in the US.
Notably, there was no partisan gap on vaccines in the UK, where a populist right-wing government championed the shots.
By May 2021, with all US adults eligible for vaccination, less than half of Republicans had taken up the offer, compared to 82% of Dems. In the UK: Labour and Conservative voters alike turned up in droves, with 90% of eligible adults inoculated by the same date. Even among backers of the populist, anti-establishment Reform party, 70% had been jabbed.
It’s tragic that anti-vax attitudes, and anti-scientific views more generally have become so deeply embedded in the US political divide.
With pandemics likely a recurring part of our future, anti-vax attitudes and the populist movements that carry them will continue to hamper public health campaigns across the world. But no developed country has a problem as entrenched and as lethal as the US.
You can read my piece here (first 300 clicks free) https://enterprise-sharing.ft.com/redeem/b85e6fab-8b15-4371-aace-3b6306b636dd
Thanks for this. Good to see your threads here.
A small point about Mastodon conventions as I understand them. I believe it is encouraged to make all but the first post in a thread 'unlisted' so people jump in at the top of the thread. And for liberal use of content warning (CW) to allow people to filter out potential divisive topics (not just very sensitive ones).
I found this useful:
https://blog.djnavarro.net/posts/2022-11-03_what-i-know-about-mastodon/
I hope more experienced people here can say something about the norms. But my rather uninformed initial thought would be that if only the first thread post is listed, the CW attached to that alone would be sufficient. Otherwise risk is it becomes too cumbersome to be adopted widely.
@jwolondon @conradhackett Hi Jo, aware of the norms, so I did make all the other posts unlisted (if you’re seeing those too, it’s because people have reblogged them).
Similarly, on CWs, I’m aware of the norms but as someone whose job is to write about politics (I would bet that >99% of people who follow me on here know what I write about), I don’t consider that to require a CW (and have seen many others on here say likewise).
Aware this is an evolving process, though!
@jburnmurdoch I've been fascinated for a while by the way politicised science is often about just one area. Some science bad, some good. What has been weird about the Covid times is the way this is all getting blurred and turned into a right wing grift.
AGW = Anthropogenic global warming
Pro-GMO, AGW Believers = Ecomodern
Pro-GMO, AGW Skeptics = GWPF
Anti-GMO, AGW Believers = Greens
Anti-GMO, AGW Deniers = Anti-science conspiracy nuts
And
Pro-Nuclear, AGW Believers = Ecomodern, Lovelock
Pro-Nuclear, AGW Skeptics = GWPF, Lukewarmists
Anti-Nuclear, AGW Believers = Greens (especially EU)
Anti-Nuclear, AGW Deniers = Anti-science conspiracy nuts
This is the revenge of the Christian Right. The revenge for modernity and the triumph of science and reason. And for their marginalization in politics and culture since two centuries. Brace yourself for more of their rage.
Attempts to understand this as "political divide" will always fail.
Attempts to understand this through the lense of racism, succeed. I have threads going back 2 years saying exactly what was going to happen, and why. I'm not clairvoyant. I just refuse to pretend not to see the obvious:
* Racist people are more likely to listen to Tr*mp, and get their news from anti-science places
* Racists enjoy things that they think harm Black people
There's a reason that antivaxx protests in Canada and the UK featured confederate flags. Why is a confederate flag in Canada? Let alone the UK. 🤔
But we keep pretending that it's a "political divide" because even saying the word racism is taboo.
@mekkaokereke @jburnmurdoch
Can’t argue with you.
But the GOP is getting smarter. By running Hershel Walker, it allows GA racists to hide that fact.
(To be clear: I’m not saying all Walker voters are racists. I’m saying racists are happy to vote for Walker)
Yeah, they've done that for a while. Being the Black voice of white supremacy has always been a profitable job. They are always hiring for that position.
@jburnmurdoch Great article and details. Especially the graphs.
FWIW, I couldn't see the thread properly on the Mastodon mobile app. It came right up on the web interface.
I was appalled/tickled to find that when Jenner came up with the small pox vaccine, there was an immediate anti-vax backlash to it - people thought they'd grow horns or hooves.
Would be nice to think we'd moved on in the last 200 years but apparently not.
@jburnmurdoch While comparing the Republican party to AfD and Front National is already not putting the GOP in a very favourable light, I think there's an issue of causality here.
In Europe, the mechanism is largely that people with anti-science believes vote for anti-science parties, as they reflect their attitudes. In the US, I fear this is reversed: People hold anti-science believes because they vote for an anti science party. This makes the harm caused by the GOP so much greater.
I'm in the UK
I wonder if you've listed to Fiona Hill on the Lex Fridman Podcast #335
https://youtu.be/vNhSCF9i8Qs?t=1606
She also talks about how the US has a very politicized administration too
@jburnmurdoch For one particularly striking case study, see Florida.
Before DeSantis went full MAGA on COVID in May 2021, Florida's death rate was near the national average.
But since DeSantis went full MAGA — by preempting local officials in May 2021, then blowing off doctors' warnings of a summer surge, and then increasingly pandering to anti-vaxxers — Florida has suffered the highest COVID death rate among large states and the 4th highest death rate among all states:
Let's just hope it's enough 🤞
I would argue that the gulf represents one demographic turning away from a technology that it does not understand, and the other demographic embracing a technology that it doesn't understand either rather than an outright rejection of science. At the leadership level, both sides have utilized propaganda to their own ends--you can't reject science that was never served in the first place.
Great thread, and great to see you here. I have been following you on the other site and always benefitted from your analyses and judgements.
Also, delighted that you are posting specific content here, rather than cross-posting from other platforms. I think avoiding excessive cross-posting will be important in the current transition phase, so as to give all of us a chance to assimilate the slightly different engagement style here.
This study is very interesting.
Hereafter, the global number of ☠since 80'(in France)
the principle is simple:
❶ For 1 dead, U do +1
❷ At the end of the year, U sum
❸ Do it again for each year
https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2383440
-----------------------------
Q: how many death for 2020???
-----------------------------
Its really not the way one would want to change the political demographis.
I guess it's a "triumph" for misinformation campaigns. 😢
John Burn-Murdoch 
neilc
Sam Jones
Elliott Bignell Слава Україні!
Jo Wood
Conrad Hackett 
The Penguin of Evil
Final Round Player 😷🇪🇺🍸
Martin Vermeer FCD
Dan Olner
@stefanpaetow.bsky.social
Matt Brignall
omz2468
Robert Wutz
Timperley Steve
Mekka 
💉💉💉🎉
GenXJamerican 🇯🇲 🇺🇸
TC Won't Give In To Lies
BashStKid
Charlotte Wilson
katrina
Marty Mankins
troyella
Sab
tomo
merely rhys
Gizem Karaali
Aner Ottolenghi
Brook
The Democratic Difference
Blessedtraveler
Lucy Jones
Ronathon Livingston Seagull
Marty Maximilian
JamesGWilliams
J.H.Noyes
Hope 🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️🏴 SNP
\ˈthē-ˈˈärd-ˌvärk\
Marc Kaulisch
the roamer
Simon Blackley 📷
detwea
Matthew Malthouse
Lynn