"Today, scholars and policymakers debate whether China will rival the United States as a superpower or is already in decline. The rise of India and the resurgence of Russia, meanwhile, have led many to proclaim the arrival of multipolarity. Widely divergent views about the balance of power are common because power, although foundational to international politics, remains an elusive concept.
To reckon with this challenge, I developed a methodology for comparing national power—one that uses common metrics (GDP, for instance, or military expenditure) in modern and historical data to determine a threshold for great-power status. My study found that arguing about whether China is catching up to the United States misses the point. Great powers have often been far weaker than the leading state—the most powerful country in the global system—but nevertheless engaged in dangerous security competitions. Moreover, my methodology revealed that China today is already more powerful than the Soviet Union was during the Cold War. Modern China, then, is not just a great power but a superpower.
The world, in short, is bipolar. Many middle powers are influential actors within their regions, but only the United States and China exceed the great-power threshold. This development explains rising tension in U.S.-Chinese relations and suggests that other countries will find it increasingly difficult to stay out of the crossfire of the rivalry. Bipolarity, for instance, helps explain the recent U.S. preoccupation with Latin America, where China has gained significant economic and political influence. As the dynamic between China and the United States grows only more competitive, Washington will find such encroachments intolerable—just as China may similarly refuse to accept U.S. political and military involvement in its own backyard."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/multipolar-mirage#
#USA #China #Bipolar #InternationalRelations #Geopolitics #Imperialism #Superpowers #PoliticalEconomy