The CFTC (the US commodities regulator) has just sued (https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9206-26) Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois for their efforts to "outlaw, regulate, or otherwise restrain" prediction markets like Kalshi.

This is another escalation by newly appointed CFTC chair Mike Selig (and sole Commissioner at the agency), who has taken it upon himself to assert the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Recently, the CFTC filed a supporting brief in Crypto .com's lawsuit against Nevada.

As I wrote then (https://www.citationneeded.news/issue-101/#cftc), "Since the CFTC has filed no enforcement actions against prediction markets after embracing the sector following Trump’s election, Selig’s jurisdictional claim seems designed to shield the sector rather than regulate it."

Nevertheless, the CFTC's press release accompanying these lawsuits claims that state regulatory intervention could result in "poorer consumer protection and increased risk of fraud and manipulation".

#PredictionMarkets #Kalshi

Let's just call a spade a spade.

When you get down to the basics...

Predicting a horse is going to win a race is a bet.

Predicting a stock is going to go up or down (buy / sell) is a bet.

Predicting someone is going to bomb Iran on a prediction market is a bet.

Word dodging. #Corruption.

Time to introduce a bill to stop any member of the US federal government or military from using #predictionmarkets.

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/congress-must-stop-prediction-market-corruption/

#cronycapitalism
#trump
#IranWar
#iranconflict
#IranUSWar
#corruption
#stockmarketmanipulation
#predictionmarkets

"Experts, market watchers and the authorities in Iran have accused the U.S. President of engaging in market manipulation surrounding the Iran war by timing military announcements around market opens and closes.

On top of that, there have been questions of possible insider trading in connection to Trump’s moves."

https://mgln.ai/e/12/cbc.mc.tritondigital.com/CBC_FRONTBURNER_P/media/frontburner/frontburner-a6fBdIrg-20260329.mp3

One of the many problems afflicting the U.S. at the moment is gambling and prediction markets. Derek Thompson takes a look at the state of things now, and explains why he believes things will get worse.

https://flip.it/ce5.fk

#USPolitics #Culture #Gambling #PredictionMarkets

"Before the US attack on Iran, several new accounts on the platform predicted the timing of the US/Israeli strikes, just 24 hours before they happened. The same pattern was identified after the US coup in Venezuela in January. A single account, set up only a few days before military action occurred, made more than $400,000."

~ Nesrine Malik

#Trump #Iran #war #Polymarket #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #futures #profiteering #InsiderTrading
/1

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/30/trump-bombs-betting-markets-speculators

Weekly output: Most Innovative Companies, Serve Robotics, Android 17, United Airlines’ ambitions, Polymarket’s pop-up bar

CHICAGO–This is one of my favorite cities in the U.S., but it doesn’t show up in my work travel as often as I’d like. So I’m delighted that the Online News Association decided to move its annual conference from late summer to early spring and then stage this year’s event here–in a hotel that should be familiar to everybody who’s seen The Fugitive.

Patreon readers got a bonus post that I’d meant to have written weeks earlier: a recap of MWC Barcelona in which I also gave away a global eSIM to the first reader to ask for it.

3/24/2026: The most innovative robotics and engineering companies of 2026, Fast Company

This list, the product of months of research and editorial back-and-forth, finally emerged online this week. And then we had to run a quick correction after one of the companies honored said that we’d mentioned an achievement that they did not want disclosed.

3/25/2026: Delivery Robots Have a Mapping Problem, PCMag

I sat down in a hotel lobby in Austin during SXSW with MJ Burk Chun, co-founder and vice president of product and design at Serve Robotics, to talk about the issues that company is working to address as it tries to scale up having four-wheeled robots cart food deliveries to customers.

3/27/2026: Google Ships Latest Android 17 Beta. Here’s What’s New, PCMag

In between having so many longer stories to write, I was happy to get one that I could bang out in an hour or so.

3/28/2026: United’s New Upgrades Aim to Keep You Online and Fully Charged at 35,000 Feet, PCMag

My week started with me flying to another one of United’s hubs–with the airline covering my airfare and lodging–for its United Elevated event at LAX. In addition to looping me into UA’s ambitions for its onboard product, this event doubled as a reunion with some of the avgeek journalists I met at Cranky Dorkfest in September and with my former Washington Post colleague Lori Aratani, who interviewed United CEO Scott Kirby onstage Tuesday morning.

3/29/2026: Pints meet prop bets: Polymarket’s “Situation Room” pop-up bar in DC, Ars Technica

I thought I saw an opportunity to write for this occasional client for the first time since the summer of 2023; fortunately, my editor then and now agreed.