#PredictionMarkets Make a Bet Against #PublicHealth

"In behavioral psychology, one of the strongest drivers of risky behavior is the belief that skill or intelligence can control uncertainty. In gambling disorders, this is often called the illusion of control. Prediction-market apps lean into it. Their design encourages users to feel not impulsive but informed, as if the right podcast episode, chart, or probability can turn chance into mastery."

#Addiction #Gambling

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/prediction-markets-make-a-bet-against-public-health.html

My latest on trump 2.0's CORRUPTION.
https://stevenluker.substack.com/p/someone-elses-keys-part-2

#Corruption #Accountability #Fiduciary #TrumpCrypto #PredictionMarkets #OpenGovernment #CivicTech #BrokenSpoke

Prediction Markets Cast Shadow Over Tribal Gaming Landscape

Tribal gaming leaders say prediction markets are an 'existential threat' to their operations and sovereignty, leading to legal challenges.

#TribalGaming, #PredictionMarkets, #GamingLaw, #Sovereignty, #Kalshi

https://newsletter.tf/tribal-gaming-threatened-by-prediction-markets/

Prediction markets are seen as a new, unregulated form of gaming, challenging the decades-old tribal gaming industry.

#TribalGaming, #PredictionMarkets, #GamingLaw, #Sovereignty, #Kalshi
https://newsletter.tf/tribal-gaming-threatened-by-prediction-markets/

The CFTC (the US commodities regulator) has just sued (https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9206-26) Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois for their efforts to "outlaw, regulate, or otherwise restrain" prediction markets like Kalshi.

This is another escalation by newly appointed CFTC chair Mike Selig (and sole Commissioner at the agency), who has taken it upon himself to assert the CFTC's sole regulatory authority over prediction markets. Recently, the CFTC filed a supporting brief in Crypto .com's lawsuit against Nevada.

As I wrote then (https://www.citationneeded.news/issue-101/#cftc), "Since the CFTC has filed no enforcement actions against prediction markets after embracing the sector following Trump’s election, Selig’s jurisdictional claim seems designed to shield the sector rather than regulate it."

Nevertheless, the CFTC's press release accompanying these lawsuits claims that state regulatory intervention could result in "poorer consumer protection and increased risk of fraud and manipulation".

#PredictionMarkets #Kalshi

Let's just call a spade a spade.

When you get down to the basics...

Predicting a horse is going to win a race is a bet.

Predicting a stock is going to go up or down (buy / sell) is a bet.

Predicting someone is going to bomb Iran on a prediction market is a bet.

Word dodging. #Corruption.

Time to introduce a bill to stop any member of the US federal government or military from using #predictionmarkets.

https://www.americanprogress.org/article/congress-must-stop-prediction-market-corruption/