Go Weapons Hot1h ago

"Nicolas Vaiman: We spotted nine Polymarket accounts all connected who made collectively $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations. Van Dyke made $400,000. Here, $2.4 million. And now here's the crazy part. 98% win rate."

#predictionmarkets
#insidertrading
#classifiedinformation
#military

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/prediction-market-traders-make-millions-betting-on-us-military-operations-60-minutes-transcript/

Online prediction market traders make millions betting on U.S. military operations

Prediction market users are profiting from bets on war. Analysts say suspiciously timed bets, and the high win rates of wagers on military outcomes , are likely signs of insider trading.

World news | The Guardian5h ago
Prediction market Kalshi to give $2m to problem gambling group as it fights ‘gambling’ label https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/kalshi-problem-gambling-group-investment #UsNews #Business #PredictionMarkets #Gambling
Prediction market Kalshi to give $2m to problem gambling group as it fights ‘gambling’ label

Kalshi announces two-year investment to National Council on Problem Gambling ‘focused on trader health and safety’

The Guardian
Marco Herack8h ago

Mikro349 Prognosemärkte sind die Landwege der Sportwetten

Ulrich und Marco besprechen die manipulierte Welt der Prediction Markets und Irans Versuch die US-Seeblockade zu umgehen.

https://mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro349-prognosemaerkte-sind-die-landwege-der-sportwetten/

(Premium)Mikro349 Prognosemärkte sind die Landwege der Sportwetten – Mikroökonomen

Business | The Guardian US12h ago
‘You can bet on it’: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/you-can-bet-on-it-utah-lawmakers-form-united-front-in-push-to-ban-prediction-markets #PredictionMarkets #UsNews #Business #Gambling #Society
‘You can bet on it’: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

Utah’s heavily Mormon population is largely opposed to all gambling, even on financial exchange platforms

The Guardian
Koen Hufkens, PhD2d ago

Dumb-asses, they are the same people*.

[*Or, maybe that's the goal]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/the-us-is-betting-on-ai-to-catch-insider-trading-in-prediction-markets/

#AI #polymarket #predictionmarkets

The US is betting on AI to catch insider trading in prediction markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission wants us to know it's taking this very seriously.

Ars Technica
sayzard2d ago

Ars Technica (@arstechnica)

미국이 예측시장(prediction markets)에서 내부자 거래를 잡아내기 위해 AI 활용에 베팅하고 있다는 내용입니다. AI를 이용해 비정상 패턴과 의심 거래를 탐지하는 방향으로, 금융 감시·리스크 모니터링 영역의 실제 적용 사례로 볼 수 있습니다.

https://x.com/arstechnica/status/2055607915734798694

#ai #insidertrading #predictionmarkets #fintech #compliance

Ars Technica (@arstechnica) on X

The US is betting on AI to catch insider trading in prediction markets https://t.co/psefh3pEjg

X (formerly Twitter)
Vladimir Savić2d ago

Oh, surprise, surprise,...

Prediction markets see surge in suspicious trades as popularity explodes https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/prediction-markets-see-surge-suspicious-trades-popularity-explodes-2026-05-15/ #PredictionMarkets #Kalshi #Polymarket #zeitgeist

Ciro Borrelli3d ago

People betting on Paris temperatures… and possibly trying to influence data from a weather station inside Charles de Gaulle Airport to win.

Weather is no longer just forecasting.
It is increasingly becoming a financial asset.

And when uncertainty becomes tradable, data integrity becomes critical.

#Weather #PredictionMarkets #ClimateRisk

WIRED - The Latest in Technology, Science, Culture and Business [Unofficial]3d ago

The US Is Using AI to Hunt Down Insider Trading on Polymarket

https://web.brid.gy/r/https://www.wired.com/story/polymarket-insider-trading-cftc-michael-selig-interview/

jbz4d ago

🎲 Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, While Top 1% Claim 76.5% of Gains, Study Finds - Slashdot

｢ just 1,200 people took more than half the profits — $591 million, or more than $100,000 each. ["The top 1% of users capture 76.5% of all trading gains," the researchers write.] When you dabble in prediction markets, you're competing against these sophisticated players who consistently win ｣

https://science.slashdot.org/story/26/05/11/0055243/most-polymarket-users-lose-money-while-top-1-claim-765-of-gains-study-finds

#polymarket #Predictionmarkets #gambling

Most Polymarket Users Lose Money, While Top 1% Claim 76.5% of Gains, Study Finds - Slashdot

In Polymarket's prediction market, "most people end up losing money," reports the Washington Post — typically a few bucks. "Since Polymarket launched in 2022, a few thousand people have lost the bulk of the money... and an even smaller group — .05 percent of users — has gone home...