"They also offer an unnerving implicit philosophy: that we should relate to the future not as citizens or moralists, problem solvers or advocates, but as gamblers, each of us surveying the horizon of possibility somewhat indifferent to human outcomes and looking instead for a betting edge."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/17

"The new accounts all appear to have been created late last week, around the time when the US president, Donald Trump, appeared to first double down on war with Iran, then suggest in an after-markets Truth Social post that he was considering 'winding down' military operations."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/15

"They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March.

An account that made the same bet was created shortly before the US struck Iran on 28 February. It also placed a winning bet on those strikes, which raised similar questions around insider trading, and so far has bet on nothing else."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/14

"Several accounts on the online platform Polymarket laid bets on a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend that appeared to show signs of insider knowledge, according to experts.

Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire."

~ Aisha Down

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/13

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/23/bets-us-iran-ceasefire-show-signs-of-insider-knowledge-say-experts-polymarket

"With Donald Trump in the White House, the markets have never been a stronger indication of which direction the wind is blowing across the top of the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office."

~ Lucian K. Truscott

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/12

https://luciantruscott.substack.com/p/who-gets-a-vote-about-how-this-war