"There are a few common threads between all of these stories:
- OpenAI doesn't have cash.
- The Disney licensing deal? Paid for in stock.
- The AWS contract? Amazon has to give OpenAI $10 billion to pay for it, because OpenAI doesn't have the cash.
- Broadcom's deal with OpenAI? "not much" revenue in 2026, probably because OpenAI doesn't have the cash.
- The Money For Data Centers Is Running Out.
- Blue Owl is the loosest lender in the universe, and if it’s having trouble raising money, everybody will very soon.
- Investors are aggressively dumping Oracle because it keeps trying to build more data centers for OpenAI, a company that does not have the money to pay for its compute.
- AI Is Wearing Out Its Welcome, and the AI Bubble Narrative Is Impossible To Ignore
It used to be (back in September, at least) that you could announce a big, stupid deal with OpenAI and see a 40% stock bump. Now the markets are suddenly thinking "huh, how is it gonna pay that?"
Oracle's stock also got dumped because it increased capital expenditures in its latest quarter to $12 billion, on analyst expectations of $8.4 billion.
And the other key thread is the year 2026.
Next year is meant to be the year that everything changes. It was meant to be the year that OpenAI had a gigawatt of data centers built with Broadcom and AMD, and when Stargate Abilene's 8 buildings were fully built and energized. 2026 is meant to be the year that OpenAI opened Stargate UAE, too.
Here in reality, absolutely none of this is happening, and I believe that 2026 is the year when everything begins to collapse.
In today's piece, I'm going to line up the sharp objects sitting right next to an increasingly-wobbling AI bubble, and why everything hinges on a looming cash crunch for OpenAI, AI data centers, those funding AI data centers, and venture capital itself."
https://www.wheresyoured.at/premium-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts-in-2026/
#AI #GenerativeAI #OpenAI #Oracle #AIHype #AIBubble