𝕯𝖔𝖔𝖒𝖘𝖈𝖗𝖔𝖑𝖑™Nov 29
ᴛʜᴇ 1.5°ᴄ ꜰᴀɴᴛᴀꜱʏ ᴅɪꜱꜱᴏʟᴠᴇꜱ. New projections set the global thermostat at 2.3 — 2.5°C. The old guardrail becomes folklore, a bedtime story told by negotiators who still pretend treaties can cool physics. 🌡️📉📖 #ClimateProjections #1Point5Degrees #WarmingReality #TippingPoints https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/new-climate-pledges-only-slightly-lower-dangerous-global-warming
New climate pledges only slightly lower dangerous global warming projections

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, compared to 2.6-2.8°C in last year’s report. Implementing only current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, compared to 3.1°C last year.

UN Environment
Show threadanna_lillith 🇺🇦🌱🐖Oct 18

#Karoly , who was not involved in the #research said on a global scale the share of #CarbonDioxide absorbed by forests, trees, and plants had been quite stable over the past 20 to 30 years, which was assumed to continue under many #ClimateModels and policies.

But if similar shifts – from sink to source – were observed in other #rainforests, #ClimateProjections may underestimate #GlobalWarming in future. “Which is bad news,” he said.

6/9

Doug BostromDec 4, 2024

Day as opposed to month. It makes a difference.

#ArcticSeaIce
#cryosphere
#ClimateProjections

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54508-3

The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030 - Nature Communications

The first day with no sea ice in the Arctic will be a visible sign of climate change. This work reveals that this could occur before 2030 already and becomes more likely as the world warms. As the ice thins, the triggers are extreme weather events.

Nature
AI4PEXNov 5, 2024
#AI4PEX research focus 8: Projections
AI4PEX aims to deliver improved #climateprojections of changes in the regimes of #ExtremeEvents and associated impacts from the next generation of #ESMs #ArtificialIntelligence-enhanced and grounded on #earthobservations.
AI4PEXJul 31, 2024

Are you wondering how #AI4PEX plans to overcome uncertainties in #ESMs and how to improve #climateprojections in the future?
Over the next weeks, we will introduce you to the main research tasks of our project, which will ultimately result in an improved #ESM.

🚀 Stay tuned!

nextGEMSMay 11, 2024

🚨Blogpost alert | Get to know the heart of our work with our latest blog post, where you will discover how #nextGEMS is revolutionizing #climateprojections by employing storm-resolving models with a fifty-fold finer horizontal grid, unlocking unprecedented levels of resolution. 📚

🔗 Learn about two key models driving our research, #ICON and #IFS, reading the full blog post here: https://nextgems-h2020.eu/the-earth-system-models-used-in-nextgems-explained/

#EarthSystemModelling #StormResolving #H2020 #ClimateChange #WeatherForecast

The Earth system models used in nextGEMS, explained

nextGEMS is trying to reach an advanced level of resolution in climate modelling.

nextGEMS
Ruth MottramOct 10, 2023

When you are trying to work out the implications of #SeaLevelRise on populations you need to know how big and how much the population is growing...

Based on this probabilistic projection I've come to the conclusion that #demographics exist to make #climateProjections look good...

#ProtectSLR

Show threadRuth MottramAug 7, 2023
(Full disclosure, I' leading a work package on #ClimateProjections in this project!)
Phys.orgJun 23, 2023

Referenced link: https://phys.org/news/2023-06-effect-volcanic-eruptions-significantly-underestimated.html
Discuss on https://discu.eu/q/https://phys.org/news/2023-06-effect-volcanic-eruptions-significantly-underestimated.html

Originally posted by Phys.org / @physorg_com: http://nitter.platypush.tech/physorg_com/status/1672285655097851906#m

Effect of #volcaniceruptions significantly underestimated in #climateprojections, study shows @Cambridge_Uni @theAGU https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL103743 https://phys.org/news/2023-06-effect-volcanic-eruptions-significantly-underestimated.html

Effect of volcanic eruptions significantly underestimated in climate projections, study shows

Researchers have found that the cooling effect that volcanic eruptions have on Earth's surface temperature is likely underestimated by a factor of two, and potentially as much as a factor of four, in standard climate projections.

Phys.org
Hari TulsidasMay 3, 2023
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle of warm and cold phases in the tropical Pacific, is not behaving as expected under climate change. Most computer models predict that ENSO will become more intense and frequent as the planet warms, but observations show no clear trend. This discrepancy challenges scientists’ ability to project future climate impacts, such as droughts, floods and hurricanes. #ENSO #Pacific #ClimateProjections https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/04/a-mystery-in-the-pacific-is-complicating-climate-projections/
A mystery in the Pacific is complicating climate projections

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which has a huge influence on global weather patterns, isn't behaving as computer models predicted. That's puzzling scientists.

Yale Climate Connections