@UniversidadxClima
Thanks for sharing the research & info for Spain! 🙏🏻 Including: “Projections for the next 50 years suggest that Southern Europe, including Spain, will experience a combination of rising temperatures, increased drought frequency, and aging infrastructure.” 😐

Re infrastructure, could say “aging & inappropriate infrastructure - certainly for my country, Australia, where for instance, our storm water drains are often overwhelmed because they were not built to carry the volumes of water we now experience as rain becomes torrential & all the hard built surfaces (pavement, concrete, brick) increase the runoff & overwhelm the existing infrastructure which often has a huge maintenance backlog already. Nothing like torrential rain to test a water removal system built when Queen Victoria was a girl! [metaphor for old & antiquated]

#Spain #Australia #infrastructure #ClimateCatastrophe #agingInfrastructure #SouthernEurope #climateProjections #risingTemperatures #increasingDrought #torrentialRainfall

RE: https://mastodon.nl/@Blogfeedser/116426759073016504

🌎 AMOC likely to weaken 51% (±8%) by 2100 – far more than model ensemble mean (32±37%) according to new science paper. Observational constraints + ridge regression correct South Atlantic salinity bias, bringing tipping point closer.

🔗 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298

#AMOC #ClimateTippingPoints #Oceanography #ClimateScience #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #ClimateProjections

ᴛʜᴇ 1.5°ᴄ ꜰᴀɴᴛᴀꜱʏ ᴅɪꜱꜱᴏʟᴠᴇꜱ. New projections set the global thermostat at 2.3 — 2.5°C. The old guardrail becomes folklore, a bedtime story told by negotiators who still pretend treaties can cool physics. 🌡️📉📖 #ClimateProjections #1Point5Degrees #WarmingReality #TippingPoints https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/new-climate-pledges-only-slightly-lower-dangerous-global-warming
New climate pledges only slightly lower dangerous global warming projections

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, compared to 2.6-2.8°C in last year’s report. Implementing only current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, compared to 3.1°C last year.

UN Environment

#Karoly , who was not involved in the #research said on a global scale the share of #CarbonDioxide absorbed by forests, trees, and plants had been quite stable over the past 20 to 30 years, which was assumed to continue under many #ClimateModels and policies.

But if similar shifts – from sink to source – were observed in other #rainforests, #ClimateProjections may underestimate #GlobalWarming in future. “Which is bad news,” he said.

6/9

The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030 - Nature Communications

The first day with no sea ice in the Arctic will be a visible sign of climate change. This work reveals that this could occur before 2030 already and becomes more likely as the world warms. As the ice thins, the triggers are extreme weather events.

Nature
#AI4PEX research focus 8: Projections
AI4PEX aims to deliver improved #climateprojections of changes in the regimes of #ExtremeEvents and associated impacts from the next generation of #ESMs #ArtificialIntelligence-enhanced and grounded on #earthobservations.

Are you wondering how #AI4PEX plans to overcome uncertainties in #ESMs and how to improve #climateprojections in the future?
Over the next weeks, we will introduce you to the main research tasks of our project, which will ultimately result in an improved #ESM.

🚀 Stay tuned!

🚨Blogpost alert | Get to know the heart of our work with our latest blog post, where you will discover how #nextGEMS is revolutionizing #climateprojections by employing storm-resolving models with a fifty-fold finer horizontal grid, unlocking unprecedented levels of resolution. 📚

🔗 Learn about two key models driving our research, #ICON and #IFS, reading the full blog post here: https://nextgems-h2020.eu/the-earth-system-models-used-in-nextgems-explained/

#EarthSystemModelling #StormResolving #H2020 #ClimateChange #WeatherForecast

The Earth system models used in nextGEMS, explained

nextGEMS is trying to reach an advanced level of resolution in climate modelling.

nextGEMS

When you are trying to work out the implications of #SeaLevelRise on populations you need to know how big and how much the population is growing...

Based on this probabilistic projection I've come to the conclusion that #demographics exist to make #climateProjections look good...

#ProtectSLR

(Full disclosure, I' leading a work package on #ClimateProjections in this project!)