CounterPunch.org | Waiting for the AI Bubble to Burst: Great Collapses of the Past by Dean Baker
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Dean Baker argues that the looming “AI bubble” will likely follow the familiar pattern of previous bursts – first the dot‑com bust of 2001 and then the housing crash of 2008 – both of which saw optimistic government forecasts for GDP and job creation collapse into far‑worse reality. In the early 2000s, projected growth of 2‑3 % and the creation of millions of jobs turned into a lone‑digit GDP rise and a net loss of about 6.6 million jobs, while the housing bust produced a 12‑million‑job shortfall and a deep recession after nationwide home‑price declines wrecked mortgage markets and banks. Baker warns that when AI‑driven investment cools, sectors hidden behind the hype could be exposed, leading to reduced demand, a negative wealth effect, and the same systematic forecasting errors that missed past collapses.
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