[Jeff Foust] Improved thresholds and SSA accuracy can reduce most satellite collision risk - sh.itjust.works
::: spoiler Article text Jeff Foust 4–5 minutes WASHINGTON — Improving the
accuracy of space situational awareness (SSA) data and using tighter thresholds
for potential conjunctions can help retire most of the risk of satellite
collisions in low Earth orbit, a new study concludes. Research presented April 8
at the 5th IAA Conference on Space Situational Awareness in Madrid by COMSPOC
found that most satellite operators only eliminate 7% of the potential collision
risk based on the current accuracy of SSA data and the thresholds they use for
determining when a potential conjunction warrants action. The analysis, said
COMSPOC’s Daniel Oltrogge in an interview, is based on modeling of objects in
orbit with estimates of their size from different databases. The 7% estimate
uses the current accuracy of SSA data and a 1-in-10,000 threshold of a potential
collision to take actions such as maneuvering, a threshold used by many
operators. “So that’s quite scary, and it calls into question the efficacy of
using the processes they’ve been using,” he said. One solution is to tighten
that threshold. Going to a 1-in-1,000,000 threshold would retire 75% of the
risk. However, he noted that greatly increases the number of potential
conjunctions operators must deal with, which is why few operators, other than
SpaceX, use that threshold. “It’s going to flood their system if they go to a
really stringent threshold for a given accuracy,” he said. Another approach is
improving the accuracy of SSA data. A factor of 10 improvement in that accuracy
of data would retire about 75% of the risk even with the current 1-in-10,000
threshold. “And if we were to use the sort of threshold that SpaceX is using,
that would be close to zero,” Oltrogge said. Using that 1-in-1,000,000 threshold
with improved SSA data would reduce the remaining risk of collisions to 8%.
“It’s not that anyone is intentionally doing a bad job” at collision avoidance,
he said, but they are limited by the accuracy of current SSA data and the
ability to deal with large numbers of conjunction warnings using higher
thresholds. “Typical operators seem to be only retiring 7% of collision risk
using the relatively easy threshold of 1-in-10,000, and if we can have a more
stringent threshold and 10 times better accuracy, we can really get most of the
collision risk addressed,” he said. That is already demonstrated to some degree
by SpaceX’s operation of Starlink, with the company using a threshold around
1-in-1,000,000 and having much better knowledge of the positions of its own
satellites than standard SSA accuracy. “What Starlink is doing is effective,” he
said, given the lack of collisions. Oltrogge said there is a good plan to
improve SSA accuracy, involving the community of companies that specialize in
SSA data collaborating with government agencies and spacecraft operators. That
would include fusing data from different sources and sharing maneuver data
provided by satellite operators, along with information about space weather
conditions. “We think this is very doable,” he concluded. “It’s just not
something that we’ve seen the government really focusing on that much in terms
of this level of collaboration and using better analytics and data fusion.” :::
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